Wednesday's Top Wager
June 13, 2018
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By Tom Wilkinson
Two of the top teams in the league wrap up a quick two-game series on Wednesday night on ESPN, as the Washington Nationals visit the New York Yankees. The Nationals are battling with Atlanta for first place in the NL East, while the Yankees are fighting with Boston for first in the AL East. The probable pitching matchup for Wednesday has Erick Fedde taking on Sonny Gray. Let’s look at the contest and MLB picks.
Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees
Date and Time: Wednesday, June 13, 2018, 7:05 p.m. ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
MLB Odds at BetDSI: Yankees -210, O/U 9.5
Probable Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Sonny Gray
Nationals vs. Yankees TV Coverage: ESPN
The Nationals have been far better on the road this season than on the road. They are just 15-16 at home, but they were 21-11 in their first 32 road games. They went under in 20 of those games, over just 10 times, with two pushes. They are scoring 4.3 runs per game and giving up 3.3 per contest. Washington got a scare on Tuesday when Bryce Harper was hit by a couple of pitches, but Harper is fine and expected to play on Wednesday.
The Yankees have been very good at home and on the road. They were 22-9 in their first 31 home games, with 19 going over, 11 going under, with one push. They are scoring 5.4 runs per game to lead the league and they are 8th in team ERA at just over 3.5 runs allowed per game.
The Nationals are expected to call up Erick Fedde for this spot start on Wednesday. Washington was going with a four-man rotation but when Stephen Strasburg went on the DL they had to make a move. Fedde already has a spot on the 40-man roster, and he has one start this season, so he is the logical choice to get this start. He has a 4.76 ERA in 56.2 innings this season with Triple-A Syracuse. His only start this season came against the Padres in late May and he allowed three runs on six hits in 5.2 innings.
Gray is 4-4 with a 4.81 ERA. He pitched really well last time out against Toronto breaking a stretch of one good game and then one bad game. He held the Blue Jays scoreless for eight innings. He is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last three starts. Gray has quality starts in three of his last four starts.
The Nationals are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. the National League East. The Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
Looking at the total, the Under is 13-3 in the Nationals last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 37-14-6 in the Nationals last 57 road games. The Over is 8-1 in Gray’s last 9 home starts. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
Nationals vs. Yankees Picks
The value in this game is definitely on the Nationals, but how can you trust Fedde? He hasn’t been anything special in Triple-A and he wasn’t that great in his one start against a weak hitting San Diego team. He gets a far tougher test in this one against a New York team that is pounding the ball. The Yankees would be the choice except that it is hard to trust Gray. He has pitched better in his last two starts, but I need to see more to be able to trust him. The Nationals have been very good on the road and they should find a way to score some runs in this one. I think the best choice in this game is to play the total. The Yankees figure to score at least four or five runs against Fedde and then they get into the Washington bullpen, while the Nationals should be able to get to Gray for at least a few runs. I will go over the total on Wednesday night.
Nationals vs. Yankees Pick: Over the total at BetDSI
Nationals vs. Yankees Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Nationals 5
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