Wkd Series Prices - Best Bets
August 10, 2018
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MLB Weekend Series Prices Best Bets
It was another rough week on the diamond with my series plays last week, as losses by the Royals and Dodgers in the first two games of their respective series' a week ago sealed the fate of those plays early.
Looking back at it, backing the Royals was probably a mistake because it's going to be tough to trust them or similar teams (Baltimore, San Diego) to win at least two of three against anyone. In spot's like that it's probably better to look for single game opportunities to play on said team (in this case Kansas City) because it's just one game and the value in price will still be there given how bad they've been all year.
Regarding the Dodgers play against Houston in their World Series rematch, there's no need to question it, it just didn't get us to the window. L.A missed their opportunity in Game 1 (2-1 Houston win) and that was clearly the swing game for the series.
But it's time to move on to this week's action so let's get right to it:
Milwaukee Brewers (+110) vs Atlanta Braves (-130)
This might turn into being the most interesting series of the weekend in terms of the NL standings, as both of these teams are doing everything they can to hunt down the Cubs and Phillies in their respective divisions. That means we've also got potential wildcard implications in play for the winner of this three-game set, so there could be some playoff-type games this weekend.
If that's going to be the case, it's hard not to take the value with the Milwaukee Brewers here. Milwaukee took three of four from Atlanta earlier this year, and that includes a 10-3 drubbing against Atlanta's projected Sunday starter Sean Newcomb. In fact, the Brewers outscored the Braves 23-14 in that series and domination like that is a little hard to ignore.
This play is really all about value for me with the underdog price attached to Milwaukee. Considering that Friday's game is lined basically as a pick'em and chances are Saturday and Sunday's ML's will be close to that, I'll take the +110 price now and look for the Brewers to win at least twice.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers to win series
Oakland Athletics (+120) vs L.A Angels (-140)
This series is really more of the same from a betting perspective for me as it's just too hard to pass up the +120 price on the better team. Oakland has done everything they can the past two months to climb back into a position to fight for the AL West title down the stretch and they aren't about to stop now. Furthering their cause against a listless Angels team that still is pondering what went wrong this year is definitely not a bad betting option in my eyes.
Both sides enter the weekend playing some good baseball as the A's have won seven of their last eight and the Angels just swept the Tigers to begin the week. But, Oakland's push has been months long now and with this series starting a stretch of four straight matchups against AL West rivals for Oakland, the A's know that the time is now to play their best baseball and pile up the victories. No better place to start that goal then against this Angels team.
Oakland is already in the -115 range for Friday's series opener, and I doubt we will see an individual game ML price for the A's north of this +120 number, and if we do it won't be by much. Yet, when you look at the fact that not only has Oakland won seven of eight, but when you see that they held their opponents to three runs or less in all seven of those victories, the picture starts to get clearer of just how well they are playing right now. It's also been 11 straight games since Oakland allowed an opponent to score at least five runs against them.
L.A may have beat up on a listless Tigers team this week, but they haven't won too many games this year scoring three or fewer runs, so if Oakland keeps that run going defensively, the +120 price is a steal.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet: Oakland A's to win series
As far as the other series' are concerned this weekend, here's how I see them breaking down
*Number of games won in brackets
New York Mets (1) vs Miami (2)
Arizona (2) vs Cincinnati (1)
Philadelphia (2) vs San Diego (1)
Boston (2) vs Baltimore (1)
Tampa Bay (2) vs Toronto (1)
Minnesota (1) vs Detroit (2)
Cleveland (2) vs Chicago White Sox (1)
St Louis (2) vs Kansas City (1)
10-2 GPlays, 11-4 Picks, +3,738 TY
3-1 Y'day, 6-2 Run, 19-8 Totals
4-0, +514 L4 Playoff Picks
11-5 +626 Playoffs, 16-5 G-Plays
2-0 +225 Sunday, +2,502 Totals TY
3-0 +328 MLB Playoffs, +1,424 TY
3-1 L4, +2,256 Picks This Year
16-8 L24 Picks, 8-4 L12 Totals
+2,221 G-Plays, +3,398 Picks TY
12-6 L18 Picks, 11-5 L16 Totals
19-10 L29 Picks, +2,296 Overall
5-2 L7, 9-4 +530 L13 Picks
3-0 L3, +1,067 G-Plays TY
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