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KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Sunday May 31

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
While it is looking doubtful that we will have an MLB season this year, the good news is that we still have live baseball in Taiwan (CPBL) and South Korea (KBO).

This Sunday 5/31 is special because KBO games begin at 1am EST rather than the usual starting time of 4am or 5:30am. This means that after a late night of watching the Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns UFC fight, you can stay up late to either chase your losses or increase your winnings.

This Tuesday, we have a full state “midnight baseball” with 5 KBO games, and 2 “breakfast baseball” CPBL games. My picks for Sunday include a KBO favorite, a KBO underdog, a CPBL underdog, and a CPBL run line. "Breakfast Baseball" games this Sunday morning in Taiwan (CPBL) and South Korea (KBO).

Last Tuesday's run featured a 4-0 day for a 3.77 unit profit.

Sunday, May 31, 2020
Betting Schedule

CPBL - Taiwan

  • Games: 2
  • Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
  • Watch: LIVENow, Twitter

Ratuken Monkeys (-350) at Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+245)
CTBC Brothers (-137) at Fubon Guardians (+105)

KBO - South Korea

Hanwha Eagles (+100) at SK Wyverns (-125)
KT Wiz (+106) at Kiwoom Heroes (-135)
LG Twins (-115) at Kia Tigers (-110)
Lotte Giants (+146) at Doosan Bears (-190)
NC Dinos (-230) at Samsung Lions (+175)

Sunday's Baseball Pick of the Day
NC Dinos Moneyline -230 (PointsBet)

For Sunday’s pick of the day, the league leading 17-5 NC Dinos host the 10-13 Samsung Lions. Typically, I do not like to bet on heavy favorites, but virtually everyone who plays Samsung is undervalued based on people overvaluing Samsung’s talent.

The Samsung Lions currently have the fourth worst record in the KBO and based on their talent will probably finish the year in the bottom third of the KBO standings. In contrast to Samsung, the NC Dinos are first in the KBO which would mean that if the season were to end today, they would skip every postseason round until the final round of the Korean Series.

My model gives the NC Dinos a 73.8% chance of winning against the Samsung Lions, while the -230 Moneyline odds imply that the NC Dinos have only a 69.7% chance of winning.



One reason why NC should be heavily favored is because their offense is superior to Samsung’s. Based on the likely lineups for tomorrow’s game, NC’s lineup if it played a full season in the same ballpark as Samsung would average 54.1% more runs per game than Samsung’s lineup. Currently Samsung is slightly below the league average of 5.09 runs per game with an average of 4.91 runs per game, but that number is misleading.

Only 22 games have been played so far, and Samsung’s home stadium Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly ballpark in the league. If Samsung played all their games in the typical KBO stadium, they would average fewer runs per game. In contrast to Samsung, NC leads the league with an average of 6.33 runs per game and their home stadium Changwon NC Park is close to the league average stadium with a park factor of 1012.

In addition to the lopsided difference between both offenses, NC also has a large advantage in tomorrow’s starting pitcher duel. For the NC Lions, starting pitcher Chang-mo Koo leads NC with a 1.25 WAR, a 0.62 ERA, and a 2.22 FIP. While Koo most likely will not continue to dominate the KBO with those numbers, you cannot discount the best player on the best team in the KBO.

In contrast to NC’s starting pitcher for Sunday’s game, the Samsung Lions are using starting pitcher Chae-heung Choi who has a misleading 1.88 ERA as his FIP is a much higher 4.06. While Choi is a solid starting pitcher, his FIP suggests that he will regress to the mean and be an above average starter versus Koo who is an elite pitcher. I expect Koo and the NC offense to dominate Samsung in tomorrow’s 1am game.

KBO Underdog to Back
KT Wiz Moneyline +106 (PointsBet)

There is a good reason why the KT Wiz are slight underdog in Sunday’s 1am EST game against the Kiwoom Heroes. The KT Wiz have lost the first two games of their series this weekend against the Kiwoom Heroes, and Kiwoom has performed much better than KT this season. The Kiwoom Heroes are in 4th place and on track to make the playoffs with a 12-11 record, while the KT Wiz have the 3rd worst record in the KBO at 9-13. However in tomorrow’s game, the KT Wiz should be the favorite as my model gives them a 51.9% chance of winning against the Kiwoom Heroes.

While KT has had a rough start to the KBO season, they quietly are 2nd in the KBO in runs per game with 6.29 runs per game. In addition to their prolific offense, KT has the edge in the starting pitcher duel between Je-seong Bae for KT and Seung-ho Lee for Kiwoom. Lee currently has a 5.23 ERA and a 4.42 FIP in contrast to Bae who has a 1.07 ERA and a 3.44 FIP. While KT does have the worst bullpen in the KBO, I have a hard time imagining Kiwoom scoring enough runs against the KT bullpen to make up for Je-seong Bae’s pitching. That is why I am betting on the KT Wiz as an underdog when they should be a favorite.

CPBL Pick of the Day
Uni-President 7/11 Lions Moneyline +245 (FoxBet)
Uni-President 7/11 Lions Run-Line +4.5 (-188) (FoxBet)

In the CPBL, the Ratuken Monkeys have the best record at 17-9 of all four teams, while their opponent the Uni-Lions have the worst record at 12-18. Not only do the Ratuken Monkeys have the best record in the league, but they are the only team with a winning record. Based on Ratuken’s dominance, they have been overvalued by the betting public for the last three weeks. However, upon further inspection, the evidence is overwhelming for recommending a Uni-Lions Moneyline wager at such a large price.

I am not going out on a limb by saying that the Ratuken Monkeys will probably win as they are -350 Moneyline favorites for a reason, however in the long run betting against huge favorites has value. My model gives the Uni-Lions a 39.1% chance of winning, while a +245 Moneyline implies that they only have a 29% chance of winning. Just like how my hometown New York Yankees occasionally lose to the Baltimore Orioles, the Ratuken Monkeys occasionally lose to the Uni-Lions as they did in this morning’s game as -217 Moneyline favorites.

There are a few factors as to why the Uni-Lions are undervalued against the Monkeys.

While Ratuken has a winning percentage of 65.4%, their Pythagorean winning percentage is only 61.5%. The difference in Ratuken’s winning percentage and Pythagorean winning percentage suggests that eventually Ratuken will revert to the mean as they are not truly as good as their record suggests.

Additionally, the starting pitching matchup between the two teams is not nearly as lopsided as one might think. Ratuken is using former MLB pitcher Ryan Carpenter who is 1-1 with a 3.11 ERA and the Uni-Lions are using former MLB pitcher Logan Darnell who is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA in limited action.

While Carpenter has dominated the CPBL in 6 starts, Darnell has only pitched 4.2 innings so they jury is still out on whether he is a high caliber starter or not. CPBL teams are limited to only 3 foreign players on their roster, so chances are if he wasn’t any good, they wouldn’t be using a coveted roster space on Darnell. Based on all these factors I am betting on the Uni-Lions Moneyline at +212 and on the Uni-Lions Run Line at +4.5 with -188 juice.

Best Bets Tracker

  • Best Bets Tracker
  • NC Dinos Moneyline -230 (PointsBet)
  • KT Wiz Moneyline +106 (PointsBet)
  • Uni-President 7/11 Lions Moneyline +245 (FoxBet)
  • Uni-President 7/11 Lions Run-Line +4.5 (-188) (FoxBet)

Record: 6-2, +3.19 Units, +39.9% ROI



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