Most baseball bettors try to avoid going against well known strong pitchers but that is often a place you can find extraordinary line value with the underdog. One set of circumstances we will look at today is going against teams that struggle against left-handed pitching. Teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Kansas City have terrible records in all situations so it is no surprise that they are among the worst in the league versus left-handed starters. There are a few teams that have decent records and are in playoff contention that have performed poorly against lefties as well, however. In situations where one of these teams features a decent or strong pitcher versus a mediocre to decent left-hander we still can catch great underdog value.
Minnesota Twins: Although the Twins put together a remarkable June, shortcomings were again discovered when Minnesota had to go back on the road. Despite owning the best home record in baseball the Twins have been terrible on the road (17-29) and they have also struggled versus left-handed starters (14-17). Since Minnesota has two premier pitchers in Santana and Liriano they will be heavy favorites on days when they pitch, even if on the road and against a lefty a situation where Minnesota has really struggled (5-13).
Recent Example: The final game of the first half saw Santana as a –180 favorite at Texas going against the solid but lesser known rookie Koronka for the Rangers. Though Santana has put together an impressive season the Twins lineup was going to struggle to score in this situation and the Rangers finally rallied to pull off a 5-2 victory as a huge underdog.
Upcoming Situation: The Twins travel to Cleveland in late July and the Indians feature two solid lefties in Sabathia and Lee in the rotation. Neither will grab the line attention that Liriano or Santana gets so Minnesota would still be a solid favorite in those situations despite a lineup that has not produced on the road or versus lefties. Later in the year games against Detroit could be problematic as the Tigers feature a trio of solid left-handed starters.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are a popular team and despite a losing record their strong lineup keeps them from heavy underdog status and strong history at home has them favored at Camden Yards regularly. This season Baltimore has been average at home (24-21) but they have been atrocious versus left-handed starters (8-22). They have been incredible bad on the road versus left-handed starters (2-15) but unless Baltimore rallies late in the season the opportunities for decent value going against Baltimore will be at home.
Recent Example: In late June the Orioles were –140 favorites with solid veteran Benson starting. Opposing Benson was Olsen, a little known rookie lefty for the Marlins. Benson was coming off an excellent start beating Martinez and the Mets in his last outing and despite recent strong play from Florida the Orioles were given modest favorite status despite going against a left-handed pitcher. Both teams struggled to score as the game was 1-1 in the eighth inning, but Florida was able to rally for victory in the ninth winning 8-5.
Upcoming Situation: After the break the Orioles host Texas for a four game set. The Rangers feature two rookie left-handed starters in Koronka and Rhienecker that have both delivered consistent success this season. If either matches up with Benson, Bedard, or Cabrera we could see modest favoritism of the Orioles and a dog play on Texas would be warranted. Bedard has pitched tremendously in his last few starts but given the O’s horrible record on the road versus lefties we could see value going against Bedard with a home underdog, possibly facing Kazmir, Gobble, or Redman in road series versus Tampa Bay or Kansas City in late July.
St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals had a tremendous start to the season at their new stadium (26-17 overall at home) but recently has been very mediocre even at home (8-10 at home since late May). Still with big name pitchers and Pujols in the lineup the division leading Cardinals are often heavy favorites at home. The Cardinals however have won just one of the last 12 home games facing a left-handed starter. St. Louis was favored in all 12 of those games including three times priced over -200.
Recent Example: In interleague play the Cardinals lost back-to-back games against Cleveland’s Lee and Sabathia. St. Louis was favored in both games because of the perception of its strength at home despite sending lesser pitchers, Marquis and Reyes to the hill. St. Louis scored just four runs in the two losses, losing 10-3 and 3-1.
Upcoming Situation: In early August the Cardinals host the Brewers for a three game set and Milwaukee features two solid lefties in Capuano and Davis. Since the Brewers have not produced a winning season in many years and lack the star power of St. Louis the Cardinals will be favorites in just about any match-up and a significant favorite with Carpenter or a healthy Mulder on the mound.
