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As I sit here in the freezing cold of February in New York three days before pitchers and catchers I can't help but notice the National League's improvement over the past two years. In 2006 the NL would have won the all star game and the World Series if not for Trevor Hoffmans implosion. That may not seem like a big deal, but the way things had been going it looked as if the American League would just keep winning everything forever.
The 2007 season promises to be a very exciting time for National League fans. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez the NL has finally made some inroads into a position long dominated by the AL. In addition, the reappearance of a healthy Randy Johnson and the defections of Freddy Garcia, Chan Ho Park, Ted Lilly and Barry Zito have strengthened the pitching fortitude of the NL Only the relocation of Andy Petite to the Yankees has seen the AL Chalk one up over the NL
As far as teams that can win it all I believe the AL has (in order of preference) five teams (Boston, Detroit, New York, Anaheim and Minnesota) that can; while I believe the NL has four teams (New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and St. Louis) that can bring home the hardware.
Without further, let's break down what I feel is the best group in the National League, the East.
1) New York Mets
2006 Record: 97-65
Odds to win NL East: 1-1
Odds to win NL Pennant: 9-2
Odds to win World Series: 11-1
Starting Pitching: Although two fifths of the Mets Starting rotation will soon be eligible for social security, the team as a whole is still the class of the NL East. The Mets will employ a starting rotation by committee that will consist of Tom Glavine, the ageless Orlando Hernandez and three from a field of Odalis Perez, Aaron Sele, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Alay Solar, Jorge Sosa and Chan Ho Park (strength in numbers?). The pitching can also be bolstered in late July by the return of Pedro from arm injury. Like last year the Mets cannot count on him to be there, but the possibility that he might come back should carry them through.
Relief pitching: This is still the strength of the pitching staff although the losses of Chad Bradford and Darren Oliver will hurt. The return of Duaner Sanchez and the addition of hard throwing Ambiorix Burgos to an already loaded pen of Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Guillermo Mota (after 50 Games) and Billy Wagner should be able to carry the burden of inning as it did last year.
Offense: Once again as it was last year the strength of the team. With a mixture of power (.445 slugging, 200 home runs) and speed (146 steals), the Mets killer lineup includes Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, LoDuca and the newly acquired Moises Alou. This group should be able to slug their way to another East title. The acquisition of Alou and the maturation of Lastings Milledge should help balance the lineup against lefties.
Manager: Willie Randolph has some unfinished business to take care of. Although I am not a big fan of the bunt, it would have been the right move in Game 7. For the most part Willie made good decisions last year. He is a very good motivator and if used correctly he has the tools to take this team farther into the postseason.
2) Philadelphia
2006 Record: 85-77
Odds to win NL East: 7-2
Odds to win NL Pennant: 5-1
Odds to win World Series: 13-1
Starting pitching - Philly has upgraded their rotation with the additions of Freddie Garcia and Adam Eaton. Added to a rotation of Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and young Cole Hamels, Philly should be able to avoid a slow start as they had the past two seasons and at least keep the Mets in their sights unlike last season. The one problem with the additions is that they are both the types of right handers that the Mets can pound. Only time will tell.
Relief pitching: Not one of the teams' strengths. Tom Gordon would be a nice setup man for a classic closer, but he will have to do for the Phillies. Ryan Madsen is a young stud with great upside potential. Aging Jon Lieber and a trio of Geoff Geary, Fabio Castro and Eude Brito rounds out an ordinary bullpen that hopes their offense can score like the Eagles.
Offense: Similar to the Mets, this offense can score some runs. Ranking first and second in most major offensive categories the Phils will be able to cover up some of their pitching blemishes. The lineup consisting of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, slugger Ryan Howard, Mets' killer Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and newly acquired Rod Barajas is a very formidable one, with only speed being short of the Mets lineup.
Manager: Charlie Manuel saved his job with the Phils .630 finish over the last 100 games of the season. He was not hired by general manager Pat Gillick so a slow start will be troublesome for Manuel. In addition he must hope the 23rd ranked defense can improve or it may become the "City of Brotherly Hate".
3) Atlanta
2006 Record: 79-83
Odds to win NL East: 6-1
Odds to win NL Pennant: 15-1
Odds to win World Series: 30-1
Starting Pitching: It is probably no coincidence that the departure of pitching guru Leo Mazzone was ultimately the end to the Braves incredible streak of titles. The front three starters should be fine with the amazing John Smoltz, a recovered Mike Hampton and a hopefully improved Tim Hudson, a very formidable three. After that there is a huge drop-off with Chuck James, Kyle Davies and Lance Cormier, which are not very appetizing possibilities. On the bright side, teams have won with worse.
Relief pitching: Huge question marks run amok in the bullpen. Rafael Soriano, Macay Mcbride, Oscar Villarreal, Tyler Yates and Bob Wickman all have the chance to do a decent job but more likely will be the downfall of the Braves pitching staff. It still seems like this group has way too many question marks at this point for it to be considered a usable bullpen.
Offense: As with the two teams selected above them, the Braves' offense is still a quality lineup, although parts of it are aging. If everything breaks right, a lineup filled with Edgar Renteria, the Jones boys Andrew and Chipper, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur and Adam LaRoche have the makings of a decent hitting bunch. Losing Marcus Giles will hurt the Braves.
Manager: Bobby Cox is still a magician with his team, although a lot of his magic spell was broken with the end of his streak. The loss of Mazzone was bigger than a lot of people realized, (see Parcells losing Belichick) but if anyone can overcome it Cox is one who can along with GM Schuerholz. In the end though it will be a tough road for the Braves to get back to the top of the East.
4) Florida
2006 Record: 78-84
Odds to win NL East: 8-1
Odds to win NL Pennant: 17-1
Odds to win World Series: 50-1
Manager: I am starting the Marlins off with manager for obvious reasons. Losing Joe Girardi for owner Jeff Loria's ego and thriftiness is a joke. Girardi got more out of a young team and small payroll team than anyone could have ever dreamed. New manager Fredi Gonzalez has some huge shoes to fill if he is to equal Girardi's 78-win season. Good Luck!!!!
Starting Pitching: Young studs all around, with hard throwing youngsters Ricky Nolasco, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and the amazing Dontrelle Willis makes up a very formidable starting five. The staff is certainly the strength of the Marlins. Only some talk of arm problems with Sanchez and Johnson, or a sophomore slump can bring this group down. By the way did I say Willis was great?
Relief pitching: The loss of Joe Borowski will hurt, but there are some arms to work with in this group although it is not a strength of the Marlins. Taylor Tankersly has the potential to be a closer. Henry Owens a former Met prospect also has some potential, after that Kevin Gregg, Renyel Pinto and Matt Lindstrom round out a group that is pedestrian compared to the starters.
Offense: After the wonderful Miguel Cabrera, the Marlins are again filled with young players who have a lot of potential. Hanley Ramirez the NL Rookie of The Year in 2006 heads up a young group that includes Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs the slugging first baseman, LF Josh Willingham and strong armed catcher Miguel Olivo. Like all other areas of the Florida team there is a lot of potential to do well, but I am afraid to many things must break right for them to contend for the playoffs.
5) Washington
2006 Record: 71-91
Odds to win NL East: 60-1
Odds to win NL Pennant: 200-1
Odds to win World Series: 500-1
Starting Pitching: Not much to talk about in the nations' capital. Although John Patterson is not bad and Mike O'connor has some potential, the well runs dry after that. Billy Traber, Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann do not leave Nats fans with much to root for other than their new stadium on the shores of the Anacostia River in 2008.
Relief pitching: Chad Cordero is a quality reliever and one of the few bright spots on the Nationals pitching staff. After Cordero, Jon Rauch can be a serviceable reliever but there is a black hole after this duo. Names like Tim Redding, Ryan Wagner, Saul Rivera, Jerome Williams and whomever else they can find comprise a bullpen that if not leading in the ninth may not save a game all year.
Offense: The departures of Alfonso Soriano, Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen leave gaping holes in the Washington "offense". Other than Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson there is not much to work with. Austin Kearns, Ryan Church, Brian Schneider and Felipe Lopez are the only remaining recognizable names on this popgun offense. Hopefully their defense plays well.
Manager: Manny Acta bless his heart will have his hands full. Hopefully he will make it until 2008 when they get their new stadium. I know that people like a challenge, but coaching third for a potential champion may have been a better idea than this mess. Good luck Manny we loved you in New York
