Even though major league clubs are still three weeks from Opening Day it certainly is not too early to take a look at laying down a futures bet for the upcoming season. Picking division winners or World Series Champions can be very difficult to cash in. This is because you are looking at a 162 game season and the impact of all the teams and their injuries, possible in-season personnel changes, etc. Also, in the case of a World Series Champ, you are also risking odds on three rounds of post season play on top of the regular season.
This is why we feel that the smart money in the futures department in baseball is clearly the over/under on a teams win total. After a scan of this year's over/under numbers we feel that we have found a team you might want to put a few bucks on. We see great value here and although anything can happen over the course of a long season your odds are certainly much better with a play like this than a long shot play for a division winner or World Series winner.
Milwaukee Brewers: OVER 80.5 Wins
If for no other reason than the fact that Milwaukee has not had a winning record since the early nineties one would certainly think that the Brew Crew is well overdue. Even though the Brewers have not been over .500 since gas was a $1.00 something, it was only two seasons ago that they finished 81-81. Last year's dip to 75 wins was unexpected as the thought was that the Brewers would finally get over the hump. However, Milwaukee faced an injury bug that small market teams simply can not overcome.
Last year staff ace Ben Sheets and fellow starter Tomo Ohka combined to miss 17 starts due to injury. Starting shortstop JJ Hardy was lost early on with an ankle injury and second basemen Rickie Weeks sat out the final months of the season with an injured wrist. Also, just for good measure, their only proven run producer - Carlos Lee - was traded! Yes, in a way, you could say it was truly a wonder that the Brewers even got to 75 wins. So the question becomes: Can they find six more wins this year?
Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to any type of wagering of course but we feel real good about this one. If Sheets, Weeks and Hardy can return and stay healthy - which looks to be the case so far this spring - and if they play full seasons the Brewers will be well on their way back to a winning season. The Brewers certainly have upgraded their starting rotation by adding free-agent Jeff Suppan. Milwaukee also filled a glaring need for offensive production at catcher by trading for Johnny Estrada from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
With the addition of Suppan and a healthy Sheets joining All-Star Chris Capuano, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas, the Brewers could have arguably one of the top starting staffs in the National League. The bullpen is also deep and includes some power arms. We look for the Brewers pen to be very dependable and not let very many save opportunities slip away!
As important as pitching is to winning games a team still needs to score some runs. This year’s version of the Brew Crew looks to be very balanced from both sides of the plate. Milwaukee will count on the continued development of potential sluggers in centerfielder Bill Hall and first baseman Prince Fielder. Both have the potential to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs.
Based on some major upgrades to the roster and the odds of not getting hit by the injury bug to the same degree as last year, finding six more wins (just one more win a month) does not seem like an unrealistic goal. This should be a very attainable improvement for a team that many experts feel will make a strong run at the playoffs this season. Keep in mind that the rest of the NL Central all has issues and this is by no means a powerhouse division. That gives us added "line value" with this play and we feel the Brewers should be crowding 90 wins by the time the calendar hits late September.
Best of luck from Scott Rickenbach! Join me each day for Winners in all the major sports including Baseball!
