Editor’s Note: Ed Meyer will be posting his MLB selections on VegasInsider.com this season.
Prior to the modern game, pitchers averaged a lot more innings per start and a 15-inning complete game was not that rare. Today, a complete game is uncommon and pitching more than nine innings is a real rarity.
There are numerous “specialists” in the bullpen these days and it is not uncommon for a pitcher to face a single batter before being sent to the showers. Only two pitchers went more than nine innings in 2005 and no starter went into extra innings last season. Here we will investigate the results of a pitcher’s next start when he went at least eight innings in his previous start.
The clear big money-maker in this situation is the Cardinals’ workhorse Chris Carpenter. He is a blistering 25-3 his last 28 when he went at least eight innings in his previous start.
Another pitcher that has been inspired by an 8-plus inning performance is Rodrigo Lopez. After a disappointing season in 2006, Lopez was traded to Colorado. He is a perfect 8-0 since 2005 in his starts following an 8-plus inning performance, winning five of the eight as an underdog. If he does have a long outing, look to play on him in his next start this season.
Another pitcher’s record that is worth mentioning is that of Rich Harden. Since the start of the 2004 season, the Athletics are a perfect 8-0 as a favorite with Harden when he went 8-plus innings in his last start. What is remarkable about this record is that the A’s have won these eight games by an average score of 5.1 runs to only 1.5 runs. Watch for this one to occur this season, as Harden adopts the mantle of “Ace” following the free agent departure of Barry Zito.
On the other end of the spectrum we find Chris Capuano, a left-hander who was 11-12 for the 75-87 Brewers last season. Chris struggles in his first start following a long outing, going 0-8 his last eight in this situation, including four losses as a favorite.
Another pitcher who has been a real money-burner in this situation is Dontrelle Willis. As a favorite of MORE than 160, the Marlins are a bankroll-busting 4-8 with Willis when he went 8-plus in his last start. In his last three in this situation, the Marlins have lost by margins of 10-2, 11-1 and 5-3 – as a favorite of 170, 260 and 180 respectively.
We’ll finish off this investigation simply by listing five more trends involving a starter who went 8-plus innings in his previous start.
The Twins are 0-5 with Carlos Silva when he went 8-plus in his last start and the Twins lost.
The Brewers are 0-4 with Ben Sheets when he went 8-plus in his last start and the Brewers lost.
The Angels are 0-5 at home with Kelvim Escobar when he went 8-plus innings at home in his last start, losing each game as a significant favorite.
The Red Sox are 0-6 on the road with Tim Wakefield when he went 8-plus innings on the road in his last start.
The Cubs are 6-0 with Carlos Zambrano when he went 8-plus inning in each of his last two starts.
