This is why we feel that the smart money in the futures department in baseball is clearly the ‘over/under’ on a teams’ win total. After a scan of this year’s ‘over/under’ numbers we feel that we have found a team you might want to put a few bucks on. We see great value here and although anything can happen over the course of a long season your odds are certainly much better with a play like this than a long shot play for a division winner or World Series winner.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Over 88.5 wins

It is difficult to call a team an underachiever, or consider them “flying under the radar”, after they finished with 85 wins last year. However, it simply is more of an indication about the potential of the lineup that the Phillies bring to the ballpark every day. Indeed this very well may be the year that the potential finally matches up to the preseason expectation.

The Phillies everyday lineup might not be the best in the league but it certainly is very close. Philadelphia has a great offensive blend of power – 1b, Ryan Howard, speed – SS, Jimmy Rollins, and one of the games best young complete hitters – 2b, Chase Utley.

Last year’s success happened despite a very rough year from LF Pat Burrell. This certainly leaves room for a rebound year from Burrell and, in turn, an even more potent offense. Even if Burrell doesn’t bounce back we also like the overall talents of outfielders Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand. Victorino is a speedster on the bases and Rowand has some pop in his stick and both are very solid fielders.

Quality starting pitching is hard to find and the Phillies right now sit with six established major league starters. This depth in the starting rotation will provide valuable insurance in case of injury and/or be great trade bait for a bullpen acquisition.

The late inning bullpen looks to be solid again with Tom Gordon returning as closer. Getting the game to Gordon will be the key for the Phillies but, like most teams, this is always an area of concern. However, considering their closer and solid starters in the rotation (like newly acquired Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton, along with southpaws Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, plus returning leader Brett Myers), the Phillies overall pitching staff is perhaps the most complete staff in the National League.

Taking a look back at the 2006 season, with the exception of Howard, nobody had what was considered a career year. Even Howard’s performance was not all that unexpected based on his rise through the minors. Consistent production is a great indicator when evaluating win totals. That said, considering that the Phils won 85 games last year without anybody but Howard having a career year – finding four more wins this year should not be a problem. Playing in the National League East could help the Phillies chances too.

Last year was dominated by the Mets but everything “fell into place” for New York and, unlike last season they already have significant questions marks heading into this season. The Mets starting pitching is very suspect and a quick look around the rest of the division shows the Braves have starting pitching questions marks too, the Marlins are a year or two away, and the Nationals…let’s just say we feel sorry for all Washington fans!

The reduced expectations of other teams within the division should be worth at least five extra wins in itself. Without a doubt, the expectations are there for a 90+ win season for the Phillies and these expectations are justified. The Phils roster is definitely set up to produce that kind of season so don’t hesitate to lay a couple bucks on the Phillies easily going over the 88.5 win total.

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