We’ve singled out what we feel is the strongest season wins total 'over/under' proposition in each division. With a lot of player movement in the off-season, surprising and disappointing teams always emerge. Coaching changes also make a big impact and can be positive or negative in year one. The American League Central featured arguably the most surprising and most disappointing teams last year with Detroit and Cleveland, and the roles could reverse this year as expectations have shifted. The Cardinals won just 83 games last season despite lofty expectations, but held on for the division win and went on to win the World Series last season for the seventh consecutive non-repeat winner. World Series champions have often not even returned to the playoffs as Chicago did last season. It should be another exciting season and we are ready for opening day. Be sure to get on board for our daily predictions as we have had tremendous starts each of the past two years.
AL EAST - PROJECTED FINISH: NEW YORK, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY
PLAY ON: BALTIMORE OVER 74 WINS
The Orioles have fallen short of expectations in the last two seasons but there is reason for optimism this year. The bullpen was a serious problem in years past and three high caliber relievers were added to the pen to go along with a solid closer Ray who emerged last season. Signing veteran Huff adds a consistent bat in the middle of the lineup and across the board the lineup is filled with players that are capable of putting up numbers. Tejada had a strong year for the O’s last season but appears re-dedicated and the O’s rotation could be the most consistent in the AL East as there are big question marks on the other contenders. It used to be difficult to predict success for AL East teams other than New York and Boston, but the gap has closed and this could be a balanced division.
AL CENTRAL - PREDICTED FINISH: CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND OVER 85½ WINS
The Indians were great underachievers last season as projections were high after the upstart 2005 season that produced 93 wins. Defense was a big problem last season and the roster should see improved play with Barfield acquired at second, Marte getting regular time at third and two new outfielders to surround Sizemore. The bullpen problems were also addressed with a few veteran additions and this rotation looks very solid, featuring three lefties that have demonstrated some success. Attention will be on Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota in this division which should allow the Tribe to sneak up on other teams and present a legitimate threat for the division title although this division looks in for another tight, multi-team race.
AL WEST - PREDICTED FINISH: LOS ANGELES, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, TEXAS
PLAY ON: TEXAS UNDER 81 WINS
The Rangers are getting some positive attention in the off-season with new Coach Washington and the resurgence of Sosa, but it is unrealistic to expect this team to make a major rise in the division. Texas has been below .500 each of the last two years and the Angels and Mariners appear to be substantially improved in this division while Oakland remains a tough team to beat. The offense did not acquire any key players, Catalanotto is a serviceable addition but to expect his production along with that of ancient veterans Lofton and Sosa to match the void left by Matthews and Lee is unrealistic. McCarthy has been a hot prospect for years but he was never consistent in his limited starts with Chicago and he will now move to a hitter’s park that takes a major toll on ERAs.
NL EAST - PREDICTED FINISH: NEW YORK, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, FLORIDA, WASHINGTON
PLAY ON: PHILADELPHIA UNDER 88½ WINS
With some questions in the Mets rotation many have pegged the Phillies to be the team to beat in the East but several key players had huge seasons last year which is unlikely to be replicated. Howard, Utley, and Rollins all delivered big years last season and all will face tougher tests as they are now recognized and will see few pitches to hit. Losing veterans Delucci and Conine from the outfield hurts and Rowand’s production will likely not meet those numbers having to switch leagues. Moyer and Garcia have potential and the rotation looks solid on paper but Garcia is already battling an arm issue and alleged phenom Hamels was erratic while fighting injuries in his breakout year last season. This team has not topped 88 wins in the last three seasons and expectations will be sky high for this team meaning more pressure and some negative attention from the Philadelphia media and tough fans if the Phillies start slow again. Remember this team was in bad shape until a late season climb brought them into contention in a weak wild-card race.
NL CENTRAL PREDICTED FINISH: ST. LOUIS, HOUSTON, CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI
PLAY ON: MILWAUKEE UNDER 81½ WINS
This futures number seems to suggest this could be the year the Brewers break the .500 barrier, but the off-season additions do not present much evidence of that happening. The rotation is acclaimed but Sheets can not be trusted to stay healthy and the big-name addition Suppan was average for most of last season until coming up big in the playoffs. Capuano started strong last season but struggled greatly in the second half and Bush and Vargas are still question marks with a lot of mileage on them. Estrada appears to be a solid bat in the lineup but he should not be expected to carry this offense that has not added anyone who can provide the production that Lee gave the Brewers last year in his abbreviated season with the team. Fielder and Weeks showed great promise last season and Hall had a breakout year but the team is filled with players that strike out a lot with three regulars over 125 Ks last season and Koskie, Weeks, and Hart will be right up there with a full-season of at-bats as well.
NL WEST PREDICTED FINISH: LOS ANGELES, SAN DIEGO, COLORADO, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO
PLAY ON: COLORADO OVER 76 WINS
The NL West was a surprisingly competitive division last season and not much will change this season. Just twelve wins separated first and last place last year with two teams at 88 wins and three teams finishing with 76 wins. Although the top contenders made noise with pitching acquisitions the Rockies traded away one of their top pitchers to add some pitching depth and acquire speedy center-fielder Taveras. The Rockies lineup features good speed as well as consistent hitting in the middle of the lineup. Veteran Helton needs to be more productive than last season and with Holliday, Hawpe, and Atkins emerging as very solid producers last season Colorado should have the most productive offense in this division. The rest of the division features stronger pitching top-to-bottom but Cook and Francis were very solid last season. The Dodgers appear to be in best position to take this division but the Rockies appear to have more stability than San Franciso or Arizona which should propel them to the middle of the NL West.
