Editor’s Note: Joe Nelson has brought great underdog success to Vegas Insider, currently +$1,091 on the season and finishing last season ranked #2 on VI in Member Plays. Get his latest winners here.
At 15-11 the Minnesota Twins appear to be on track to contend for another division title or a wild card berth in the stacked AL Central. Minnesota features the top starting pitcher in baseball, a great bullpen, and a lineup that has great balance and proven production. Unfortunately Minnesota has suffered some injuries to role players that have given the offense considerable trouble against left-handed pitching.
Free agent acquisition Rondell White was a bust last season until a solid final two months of the season and Jeff Cirillo is hardly a feared hitter but lacking a right-handed bat in the lineup in the DH spot has been a problem for Minnesota. Left-handed pitching has given the lineup a lot of problems and bettors should be wary of playing on the Twins against left-handed pitching, even against pitchers that have struggled.
In the last ten games against left-handed starters Minnesota has gone just 3-7, including four losses as a favorite of -140 or greater. Last Sunday the Twins lost with Johan Santana on the mound against Mike Maroth and the list of left-handed pitchers that have beat the Twins in that span is not an overwhelmingly impressive one: Maroth, Odalis Perez (twice), Jeremy Sowers, Jorge De La Rosa, Scott Kazmir, and Andy Pettitte. Minnesota did manage to win in Detroit with Nate Robertson pitching last week but it was not until the bullpen and right-hander Joel Zumaya was in the game did the Twins pull ahead.
The DH spot for Minnesota in recent weeks against left-handed starters has included veteran back-up catcher Mike Redmond, unproven rookie Josh Rabe, and switch-hitting utility infielder Luis Rodriguez. Redmond leads the group with a .259 batting average and the trio has combined for just one home run on the season.
Cirillo and White combined to play in just five games this season but both are capable of providing far more production in that spot. Minnesota does not lack decent right-handed hitters as Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter are both off to career best starts this season but the strength of the team relies on the big production from the lefties in the lineup. The return from injury of switch-hitting leadoff hitter Luis Castillo should help the cause but Minnesota will still likely have trouble posting big numbers against left-handed pitching.
Minnesota currently ranks third in Major League Baseball with a .277 team batting average but is hitting .280 against right-handed pitching and .247 versus left-handed pitching. In games against left-handed starters Minnesota has averaged 3.4 runs per game versus 5.7 runs per game against right-handed starters. Those numbers have not corresponded with compelling over/under results however as Minnesota is 5/6/1 against left-handers and 5/7/2 against right-handers.
The Twins were fortunate not to catch either of the solid left-handed pitchers in the current Tampa Bay series and the next series against Boston will not feature any left-handed starting pitching for the Red Sox so it may be a good time to look to play-on the Twins and possibly some “Over” match-ups. The next scheduled spot that should fall against a left-hander will be Wednesday May 9th versus Chicago’s young starter John Danks.
As the season goes on however keep an eye on Minnesota especially as they will have to face solid lefties from divisional opponents, Detroit, Cleveland, and Kansas City. The Royals have had success against Minnesota this season so there could be some strong underdog spots in future match-ups and there could be some value going against the Twins even with Santana on the mound if facing a strong left-hander like Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia, or Detroit’s Robertson (and possibly Kenny Rogers eventually).
