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A trendy spring training pick to make the playoffs, the Brewers are off to fantastic start with a near MLB best 18-10 record. Many feel that this is the year Milwaukee can actually contend for a playoff spot and produce a winning record for the first time since 1992. The statistics and history do not add up for Milwaukee to keep this pace going but given that no other Central team has shown consistent performance this season there is still a chance that the Brewers are for real this time.
Milwaukee has teased its tortured fans before, each of the last two seasons Milwaukee has been above .500 in early May and in 2001 the first season at Miller Park the Brewers were seven games above .500 in mid-May. The summer months have not been kind to the Brewers in recent years however and a slide may again be in order this season.
If Milwaukee can survive May playing well they could be on to something but the second half of the month features a brutal schedule. Milwaukee has built its strong record by feasting on Central division opponents and with the World Series champion Cardinals winning the Central last season at just four games above .500 there is reason to believe that the Central does not provide a true measure with the rest of the NL.
Starting on May 11th the Brewers head on a seven-game road trip to New York and Philadelphia and then will be back home for a three game inter-league set with the Minnesota Twins. The Brewers then must travel out West to face the Dodgers and Padres. The 17 day span features 16 games all against teams that had winning records last season, featuring 13 road games and trips to both coasts. If Milwaukee can play at least .500 ball through that stretch then they may have a team that can compete all season.
Milwaukee has been plagued by long losing streaks in each of the past two seasons and late May road trips have been the start of the slide. Milwaukee was 23-21 before entering a late May 10-game road trip last season. The Brewers started 3-2 on the trip but then lost the last five and the next three back at home to fall several games under .500. Milwaukee put together a solid June but then a 4-12 run in July sent Milwaukee back towards the bottom of the league. A 3-7 road trip in late May in 2005 was a critical stretch that ruined the momentum of a strong start to the season as well. Milwaukee may have the pitching to avoid a long losing streak this season but the road trip in May will be a critical juncture for the team this season.
Injuries have been devastating to the Brewers in recent seasons and in the last week, the top two starters on the team Ben Sheets, and Chris Capuano left games early. Indications do not appear to be serious season-threatening issues but losing one of those starters or newly acquired Jeff Suppan for any length of time would be a major blow to the team.
Milwaukee has out-scored opponents by a fairly small margin this season at 135-120. Prior to the lopsided series with St. Louis while the Cardinals mourned the loss of a teammate, the Brewers had actually been out-scored on the season despite the strong record. In contrast the Cubs, who many expect to win the NL Central have out-scored opponents 127-98, despite a 12-14 record. This does not bode well over the course of the season for Milwaukee as those numbers tend to balance out in the win/loss column.
The bullpen has been a huge strength for the Brewers this season with Francisco Cordero yet to allow a run and strong support from the rest of relievers. Milwaukee appears to have the pitching to keep the team in the race. The questions will lie in the offense which has slowed down recently after a blazing start.
Milwaukee currently is 11th in baseball with a .266 average but the team has already seen some cooling off in the past week as the Brewers were ranked in the top five in the league with team averages over .270 for the first two weeks of the season. So far this season Milwaukee has excelled against left-handed pitching but even in the last ten games there has been an overall decline including hitting just .234 versus right-handed pitching. Strikeouts continue to be a problem for several Milwaukee regulars although the team strikeout average is right in the middle of the league through 28 games. Last season Milwaukee had the second most strikeouts in the league and the team .258 average bested only three other teams.
This is a promising Brewers team that could present a real threat in the playoff chase and Milwaukee has a very good chance to finally break the .500 plateau this season. However it is a bit too early to crown Milwaukee as the team to beat in the NL Central. Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston have had poor starts and are capable of much more and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh appear to be in position to compete all season as well. Milwaukee has the pitching to compete but the lineup still has some questions over the course of a full season. Keep a close watch on the Brewers in late May when the schedule gets very difficult as the legitimacy of this hot start should be proven or exposed in that span.
