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Angels Rising
June 1, 2007
By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Joe Nelson (+1975 yr.!) is on fire with his MLB picks, posting a 6-0 record this week for more than eight units of profit. Jump on his daily selections for profit galore!
W hile the Boston Red Sox deserve to be lauded for their impressive start this season, it is far from a forgone conclusion that the Red Sox are the best team in baseball. The gap between perennial contenders Boston and New York is dominating press coverage but it has overshadowed some of the other teams in the American League that are playing well. It is still early in the year, but the Los Angeles Angels are starting to get on a roll and could very well end up with the best record in the American League.
While the Angels would conceivably have trouble matching up in the playoffs as teams like Boston, Minnesota, or Detroit would have more powerful top of the rotation pitching, the Angels have the staff to put together a great regular season especially in a division with three other flawed teams. The current rotation has produced great results and there is enough depth to continue winning if a starter would go down to injury.
John Lackey: 8-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .245 BA against Despite receiving little attention, Lackey has proven to be one of the most consistently successful pitchers in the league. He has won at least 13 games each of the last three seasons and is well on his way to surpass that number this season as he currently leads MLB in wins and has a 2.36 ERA. He has won five consecutive road starts which is a huge benefit for an Angel team that has had some trouble on the road in past seasons and will face tough travel stretches because of the Western location.
Kelvim Escobar: 6-2, 2.64 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .231 BA against Although Escobar may be a relative unknown to the casual fan, he has won 89 major league games and also has 59 career saves. The right-hander has always had great stuff and he has carried a solid finish to 2006 into a great start this season with dominating statistics. Escobar has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of nine starts.
Jered Weaver: 4-3, 4.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .286 BA against The 25 year old Weaver delivered a brilliant rookie season last year and after a late start he has pitched well in most recent games. His numbers are not terribly impressive at this juncture in the season but the Angels have won in each of his last five starts heading into June. He has not been allowed to go deep into games yet with a close monitor on his arm injury from the spring but it is not unreasonable to expect steady improvement as the season goes on.
Ervin Santana: 4-6. 5.48 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .282 BA against The road numbers are scary with a 0-5 record and a 9.30 ERA but Santana is dominant at home with a 4-1 record and a 2.12 ERA. Going 16-8 last season Santana was a much better pitcher at home but the disparity was not nearly this extreme. In fairness, his four worst road starts have come against powerful offenses, Detroit, Texas, Boston, and Cleveland so the numbers should get better over the course of the season.
Bartolo Colon: 5-2, 5.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .299 BA against The former Cy Young winner has yet to regain his 2005 form but he has produced five wins, which is four more than last season. Colon appears likely to land on the disabled list in the near future with tightness in his arm but he is still capable of helping the Angels this season and providing innings and a tough match-up. With Colon likely to hit the DL the Angels should not have problems in filling the fifth spot in the rotation. Both Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders would be more than capable of filling the role as both have had success this season.
Dustin Moseley: 4-0, 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .202 BA against Since he has become so valuable in the bullpen it might be tough to bring Moseley back into the rotation but the young right-hander put together two quality starts in early April allowing just two runs in twelve innings. With the Angels bullpen depth, Moseley could get back to the rotation as he has only appeared in 12 games as a reliever and Scot Shields is the primary set-up man.
Joe Saunders: 2-0, 1.96 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .294 BA against The only left-hander to make a start for the Angels this season, Saunders pitched reasonably well in three starts in April before being sent back down to AAA Salt Lake to get regular starts since Weaver and Colon returned to the rotation. Saunders allowed a lot of hits but just four runs over 18+ innings. He has not pitched that well in the minors this season but he won seven games for the Angels last season and would be given the opportunity if needed.
In recent years the bullpen has always delivered for the Angels and after a sluggish start the Los Angeles relievers are getting the job done. Measuring by ERA the Angels rank in the middle of the pack for bullpens but opponents are hitting just .228 against the Angels relievers and LA features 20 saves to just three blown saves. The mainstays in the pen Shields and closer Francisco Rodriguez are both 0-2 with early season losses but recently have been very effective. Darren Oliver has been a disappointing acquisition but he provides a left-handed presence and Moseley and newcomer Justin Speier have posted brilliant numbers for a bullpen that will likely again be highly rated at the end of the season even if the numbers are not there yet.
Pitching has been the key for the Angels but the offense has delivered strong results. Los Angeles ranks near the top of the American League with a .276 team average and averaging nearly 4.7 runs per game. The Angels are near the bottom of the league in home runs with Vladimir Guerrero as the only true power threat but they have the second-fewest strikeouts in the league and are second in total hits. Despite losing infielders Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins for much of the first two months of the season the Angels have put together a productive lineup and a capable defense.
Guerrero has posted his usual brilliant numbers and free-agent acquisition Gary Matthews has delivered electrifying defense with great production at the plate. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera has been hitting well and outfielder Reggie Willits has been a pleasant surprise picking up some of the void left by the injured Garret Anderson. Casey Kotchman is hitting .309 and although the power numbers are low for a first-baseman the Angels have to be pleased with what he brings to the team, including just 12 strikeouts in 162 at-bats. Willits has also provided eleven stolen bases and with Figgins now healthy the Angels will be a dangerous team on the bases.
All in all, the lineup looks as solid top-to-bottom as any team in the American League. The big name stars are not there outside of Guerrero, but the team has produced sound baseball with consistent hitting and base running. The schedule could also aide the Angels charge as the already large 5½ game gap in the AL West could widen.
After playing well through a tough May schedule that included 16 road games and several series against elite teams, the Angels will face what appears to be a lighter slate in June. 15 of 26 games will be at home and the Angels have an off day every week. Although the month starts with games at home against teams playing well, Baltimore and Minnesota, the month ends with consecutive home series against three of the worst teams in baseball, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City. A nine-game road trip presents some concerns but facing the Cardinals and Reds on the road is not that daunting with both teams struggling and the road-set with the Dodgers obviously is a more advantageous location than most road trips.
Despite being a good team and a favorite in many games the Angels have been highly profitable for backers. At 33-21 the Angels are plus roughly $1000 on the season at $100 per game. The Angels have just three fewer wins than the Red Sox but will never be favored to that extreme, so Los Angeles can remain a play-on team. None of the starters command lines as steep as some of the elite big-name starters in the game even though Lackey and Escobar have been as good as anyone in the AL. Look for the Angels to deliver another strong month and by the All-Star break it would not be a surprise to see Los Angeles with the best record in baseball.
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