It is real Brave to back Atlanta right now: The Braves could be due for a fall in the standings

With the Mets losing seven of the last ten games the Braves are climbing closer to the top of the NL East. Although it may be tempting to back Atlanta to make a charge to the top with the great history of success under Coach Cox, the schedule over the next few weeks will likely keep the Braves struggling to stay in the NL East and Wild Card races.

The Braves face a tough interleague draw facing teams from the AL Central with a six-game road trip in the Midwest against Minnesota and Cleveland. The Braves are just two games above .500 at home this season and facing Boston and Detroit at home next will be a serious challenge as both AL powers are producing big numbers. A three-game set with Washington will not be as easy as most assume as the Nats are playing better ball in recent weeks. The Braves then close the first half of the season on a ten-game road trip featuring both coasts, playing three in Miami, four in Los Angeles, and three in San Diego.

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Sixteen of the remaining 25 games of the first half are on the road and only three games (against Washington) are against a bad team. Florida and Minnesota are both slightly below .500 but have to be considered quality teams. The Braves are just 4-5 versus Washington this season and the Nats are actually 17-12 over the last month.

With the AL dominating interleague play again (51-33 as of 6/11) the Braves are fortunate to only have played three interleague match-ups so far, meaning that their schedule will be tougher over the next few weeks than most NL squads.

Despite the strong start to the season, a recent slump has Atlanta sitting just six games above .500. After hot pitching early in the season the rotation looks a bit shaky at this point in the season and by the All-Star break the Braves may even be a losing team. Starting pitching appeared strong early in the year but problems are developing.

John Smoltz: 7-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .253 BA against
The veteran right-hander has lived up to his ace status but he did miss his turn in the rotation last week due to shoulder soreness. He has allowed more than three runs in just one start all season but the Braves are not allowing him to go deep into games, pitching over seven innings just once this season.

Tim Hudson: 6-4, 3.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .243 BA against
For the Braves to succeed, Hudson needs to regain his early season form. After nine consecutive very good starts this season Hudson has allowed 24 runs in his past five outings, including three losses. He has allowed just three home runs all season but his low strikeout numbers in recent starts should be a concern.

Chuck James: 5-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .277 BA against
After an 11-4 season in 2006 a lot is expected of James this season, and so far the left-hander has been somewhat of a disappointment with his overall numbers. James has actually improved in the last month after a rocky start to the season and his success will be a key if Atlanta is to contend for a playoff spot. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of his last eight starts meaning James is starting to out-perform his numbers. Nine home runs allowed and high walk numbers are a concern but James has been good enough to keep the Braves in most games.

Kyle Davies: 3-4, 5.31 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .269 BA against
Davies has allowed four or more runs in six of his eleven starts and he has struggled at home with a 6.00 ERA. The 24-year old right-hander has delivered enough good starts to stay in the rotation but his inconsistency has made it difficult to expect great results.

Buddy Carlyle: 1-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .235 BA against
As his numbers suggest, Carlyle has handled himself fairly well in the big leagues with his last two starts leading to Atlanta wins. His career numbers are ugly in limited opportunities but Carlyle has journeyed back to big leagues after his second long absence. All three starts have been at home so Carlyle will have to prove his road meddle and his numbers look better than they should as one of his starts was a brilliant 1-hit seven inning effort.

Lance Cormier: 0-2, 15.26 ERA, 2.74 WHIP, .400 BA against
With some success in the big leagues the last three seasons much was expected of Cormier but he was shelled in both starts this season. He was placed on the DL June 9th with a tired arm, but he may not return as a starter unless absolutely needed.

Anthony Lerew: 0-2, 7.71 ERA, 1.80 ERA, .298 BA against
After a promising first start Lerew allowed eight runs in 5.2 innings his next two starts and found the disabled list with an elbow issue. He will likely be back in AAA when healthy again but could get another shot later in the season.

The health of Smoltz is absolutely critical to the Braves success. He is the leader and had provided consistent success his entire career in whatever role he has held. The hot start for Hudson was not bound to last but he needs to pitch better than he has in the last month for the Braves to stay in the race. James appears to be on the rise and may be a play-on pitcher in upcoming underdog situations. Davies and Carlyle look much shakier but there are not a lot of other options unless Atlanta makes a move, something that may be necessary in coming weeks.

Atlanta spent a lot of money on the bullpen this off-season and the results have been modestly promising. The Braves pen sports a 3.63 ERA which is third best in the NL and 20 saves versus five blown saves is not a terrible ratio. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano had done their part as effective members of the pen but Gonzalez is out for the season. Bob Wickman has been effective in the closer role and Tyler Yates and Peter Moylan have been solid performers. Losing Gonzalez is a serious blow but the Braves still should be okay in the bullpen.

The lineup has not been immune to injuries as Chipper Jones has missed some time recently and catcher Brian McCann has also been limited. Andruw Jones has taken a lot of criticism and his .221 average has been a severe disappointment despite 42 RBIs. Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johnson have carried the team at the top of the order with great production and back-up catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia has effectively filled in, and finding enough at-bats for both catchers may be an issue. Jeff Francoeur has posted unspectacular numbers so far this season but outfielder Matt Diaz has provided a spark with a .329 average. The Braves rank third in the NL with a .266 batting average but realistically Atlanta should have higher numbers than that given the proven hitters in this lineup. With pitching that may be questionable over the next few weeks the pressure will be on the Atlanta lineup to keep pace with some of the great offenses on the schedule.

One major problem has been hitting against left-handed pitching. In the last ten games Atlanta is hitting just .220 against left-handers and the Braves are 4-9 in the last 13 games against left-handed starters. That number could be even worse however as the Braves win when Ted Lilly pitched to three batters last week is included in that figure, as are two 2-1 wins which the Braves combined for just 12 hits. The Braves will be a go-against team when facing left-handers in most situations given the current lineup.

Atlanta is probably a team to avoid playing-on until after the All-Star break when the schedule lightens. The only possible spots might come with James on the mound as he has pitched well in recent starts and could catch underdog value against some of the upcoming quality opponents. Hudson will be severely overvalued based on his great early numbers and Smoltz has to be avoided until his shoulder issue is cleared. Although it might appear that the Braves are gaining ground with the recent struggles in New York, the upcoming schedule should sink Atlanta back to the middle of the pack and likely right around .500 by the All-Star break.