Baseball can be a very profitable sport for both the dedicated handicapper as well as the casual bettor. One of the keys in creating and maintaining profits is one that, unfortunately, is often overlooked. This key area that “slips between the cracks” for many casual bettors relates to properly evaluating streaks. Note that the streaks I am speaking of are not the streaks of the teams on the field, rather they are the streaks of the handicappers and the importance of the money line in baseball. This important subject is one that must be fully comprehended if you want to make very significant profits betting baseball.
The key in evaluating baseball profitability comes down to the money lines. There are many handicappers out there that are hitting 45% of their picks and doing a much better job than those that are hitting 55% of their picks. This is where baseball is much different than football or basketball because there is no point spread involved. If this seems rather elementary a quick refresher on how the dollars fall to the bottom line is something you should not overlook.
Personally I get very frustrated when I see handicappers advertising hot streaks in baseball and then come to find out that many of their losses are 150, 175, and 200 money line favorites. This is simply not fair to the consumer unless it is properly spelled out in any documentation relating to their streaks. Note that if a handicapper is hitting 60% on the full season but playing all 150 favorites his net profit would be zilch, zero, nada! He’s just breaking even because the juice is eating away at his profits on every loss.
Some handicappers play a lot of underdogs and note the positive impact that this has on your bottom line. If you’re hitting just 40% of your plays but they average out to be 150 dogs you’re at break even. Sounds crazy, right? Breaking even while only picking 40% winners just seems odd. However, it’s the simple power of the positive money line that allows this. Now, certainly I am not saying that there aren’t successful handicappers out there who play a lot of favorites. What I am saying though is that it is definitely “buyer beware” in this industry. Find a handicapper whose style you like and make sure you understand more than just his winning percentage in the baseball…you must understand what types of plays he’s giving you.
As of action through Sunday June 17th my baseball run is documented at 56-25. That is a 69% run and there is no “fluff” in this record. The reason I say that is because most all of my plays are totals. Of these 81 plays only 11 were sides. That means nearly 90% of my plays are totals. This is no surprise as that is my specialty in baseball but the key point is this: the average line on a total is -110 either way…just like in football or basketball with point spreads. In other words, a 69% streak in baseball that involves plays like this is something that makes a lot of money. Of the 11 side plays released during this streak they went 6-5. The biggest money line favorite I lost had a line, at the time I released the play for that day, of just 135. That’s why a person playing each play for just $100 per play, regardless of the way I rated the play, would have netted nearly $3000 during this long-term documented streak.
The point of this article, I assure you, is not to “blow my own horn”. This has been a great run and I expect it to continue but every day brings new challenges. The key point here is to best educate all baseball bettors out there as to the pitfalls of following streaky handicappers. Make sure you know what you’re getting when you’re “buying into” a handicapper’s streak. Also, make sure that you understand the impact of money line plays on your bankroll and how totals, underdogs, and small favorites, are so much easier on your bankroll than stepping out on a bunch of big favorites.
In the long run, you will make a lot more money this summer if you first understand the full magnitude of the money line in baseball. Let’s face it, we’re all looking to build our bankrolls for football season. It will be here before you know it so be very mindful of how to best make money on the diamonds throughout the remainder of this baseball season…your wallet will thank you!
