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Window of Opportunity
July 19, 2007
By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
N ine games is a substantial margin but if the Yankees are to make the AL East a race this season, the time is now. New York has won nine of the past twelve games entering game two of the home series with the Blue Jays Tuesday night and the schedule ahead is favorable. Meanwhile in Boston, the comfortable lead has brought some questions as recent play has been merely average and the upcoming schedule features a great deal of road games against quality teams.
New York is just two games above .500 but the next 24 games are all against opponents that are below .500. The Yankees will basically be split with home and road games the rest of the season but the Yankees play just three more games on the West coast and the longest remaining road trip is just nine games, with six of those games in the Eastern Time zone. The late August schedule is exceptionally tough with 17 out of 20 games against Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, or Boston; so now is the time for the Yankees to make a charge and hope that the momentum carries them through the tough parts of the schedule.
If New York is going to make up ground on the division leading Red Sox the next few weeks will provide that opportunity. The lead for Boston has mainly been built on an incredible record at home and Boston faces 16 of 19 games on the road starting in Cleveland next week. The road trip also features dangerous trips against good teams in Los Angeles and Seattle and the month closes with three in the Bronx. Boston is just 7-12 in its last 19 road games and overall the Red Sox have a losing 20-21 record since May 30. The Red Sox have the advantage with a home heavy September schedule and barring a great Boston collapse, the Yankees need to close the gap now to have a chance.
Offense has not been a problem for New York as the team is near the top of the rankings in most offensive categories. They currently sit 4th with a .281 team average and are a close second best in the AL in on-base-percentage. The Yankees do not strikeout often and on the current 9-3 stretch over the past twelve games the Yankees are averaging over 6.5 runs per game. Alex Rodriguez is having a brilliant season and mainstays Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have provided great production this season. Key components last season, Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano could be the key to a second half charge as well as an improving bat from veteran Bobby Abreu.
The bullpen was a major problem in the slow start in April but the unit has posted respectable numbers in recent weeks. Closer Mariano Rivera allowed nine runs in his first eight appearances of the season, but he has allowed just five runs in the last 28 appearances. Mike Myers, Brian Bruney, and Scott Proctor have all posted solid numbers in the bullpen in recent games and veteran Luis Vizcaino has been a workhorse even if his numbers are not on pace with his career figures. Even with the terrible start, on the season the New York bullpen has an ERA of 3.79, 6th best in the AL and a record of 16-13 in games decided in the pen.
The starting rotation is filled with big names and a great deal of experience and although the three veteran starters are not posting numbers that match their career statistics, they are pitching well enough to win games with the Yankees offense behind them. Chien-Ming Wang has emerged as the ace of the staff and the veteran experience in the rest of the rotation could pay off down the stretch. The one glaring weakness in the pitching staff is the inability to strike hitters out. Wang is not a strikeout pitcher and the rest of the rotation is not posting strong strikeout numbers. The Yankees have the fewest strikeouts of any pitching staff in baseball.
Chien-Ming Wang: 10-4, 3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .257 BA against. After a missing the first few weeks of the season and a rocky first few starts, Wang has delivered in the last two months. Wang is 9-1 in his last 12 starts and he has allowed three or fewer runs in ten of his last 12 outings. He does not accumulate strikeouts but he keeps hitters off the bases and he gives the Yankees offense the opportunity to win games.
Mike Mussina: 4-6, 4.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .291 BA against. The media has been tough on Mussina this season but a closer look shows that he has been effective in recent games. He has allowed three or fewer runs in seven consecutive starts and if he continues to pitch like that, the wins will eventually start piling up. Look for a decent second half from Mussina, he could be the key in making up ground in the division.
Kei Igawa: 2-2, 6.47 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .280 BA against. Igawa has been an expensive bust by all accounts but there is some hope to get some mileage out of him in the second half. The Yankees are 6-4 in his starts and he is the one Yankees starter that is consistently posting above average strikeout numbers. Walks have been a big part of his problems as the high WHIP indicates.
Andy Pettitte: 5-6, 4.27 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .293 BA against. The season numbers exploded with two ugly performances before the break, allowing 16 runs in just over six innings over two starts. His home ERA of 5.63 is very surprising but those two recent starts are inflating those numbers. Overall Pettitte has pitched reasonably well but has been a tough-luck loser in several contests.
Roger Clemens: 2-4, 4.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .234 BA against. Hitters are not putting up a lot of hits against Clemens but he is finding ways to lose or at least avoid winning, much as he did the last two years in Houston. He is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA on the road this season and has just 31 strikeouts in 45 innings pitched. These are not the numbers that his big contract called for but Clemens should not be doubted as a key contributor down the stretch.
Philip Hughes: 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .189 BA against. Hughes could find his way back into the rotation as he pitched well in an AA rehab start last week. He is expected to make at least four more minor league starts but he has proven capable of providing the Yankees with a boost in August in the rotation if Igawa is still struggling. He made an average start in his debut in April but had over six shutout innings in his lone follow-up before hitting the DL.
As always the Yankees are a threat to pick up a starter from another team but they likely have all they need in the rotation to make a push. The veterans are pitching well enough for the Yankees to win and with Wang leading the way atop the rotation and Hughes and Igawa as possible wild cards there is reason for optimism. Looking at the Boston rotation Beckett and Matsuzaka have been very good but of late Tavarez and Wakefield have been up and down. With Schilling’s health a question mark, Boston may need more brilliant performances from youngsters like Gabbard or other potential call-ups like Buchholz or Lester.
This race could get interesting in the next few weeks. In all probability nine games is too severe of a gap to close given how talented Boston’s team is, but given the history anything could happen. The Yankees are rarely a strong wagering proposition because of the price they typically lay but there may be some opportunities. Of the Yankees 46 wins, 39 have come by two runs or more making them an attractive run-line candidate in some situations. Don’t forget that the Yankees have lost 44 games outright in addition to the seven one-run victories and rarely does a Yankees run line play at plus money, but the Yankees are a team that can outscore opponents significantly.
Mussina may be a starter to watch as he his recent starts have been solid despite a poor overall record. The Yankees also still hold a strong home-field edge and although always overpriced, there may be some situations against quality opponents that warrant a look. The next few weeks could be an exciting time in the AL East as it literally is now or never for New York as it will be extremely tough to close the gap in September given the schedules.
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