Editor's Note: Joe Nelson (4-1, +435 LN!) has a money total of +1,228 for the season, leading "dime players" to more than $12,000 of profit. Sign up for his winners now!

With the feel-good story of Rick Ankiel and surprising revivals from early season struggles by starters Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes, the St. Louis Cardinals are getting some attention as a threat in the NL Central. Sitting just 4.5 games back and watching the Brewers and Cubs continue to give away games there is some legitimate support to that optimism. Though the Cardinals are a team to watch, the real story down the stretch could be the Houston Astros.

It is a long-shot as the Astros sit eight games out of first place but this is a team that has played great baseball down the stretch in the past three seasons. In 2004 with the addition of Carlos Beltran and Manager Phil Garner, Houston went 36-10 from August 15 to the end of the season to rise into the playoffs and eventually the NLCS. In 2005 Houston closed 26-19 and eventually made the World Series. Last season the Astros fell short of the playoffs but Houston went 25-19 after August 15 to make the NL Central race interesting, missing by just a game and a half.

Last season St. Louis won the NL Central with just 83 wins and that total may be enough this season. The Brewers are still five games above .500 but slipping fast and the Cubs have not been able to move forward since catching Milwaukee. Even though the Astros are eight games back at present, they probably would not even need to repeat the incredible 2004 finish to win the division. Getting 25 or 26 wins down the stretch, as the Astros have the past two seasons would put the Astros just below .500 and likely in the hunt. Getting 30 or 31 wins down the stretch might be enough to win the division. With the entire division posting poor numbers Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both still have a chance with an incredible finish like Houston delivered in 2004 but let’s consider the upcoming schedules and situations for Milwaukee, Chicago, St. Louis, and take a close look at the opportunity that Houston has ahead.

Advertisement

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers stormed out to a huge division lead and appeared to be challenging as a legitimate World Series threat with a potent lineup, dominant bullpen, and solid starting pitching. Times have changed considerably as Milwaukee is clinging to the division lead and is 15-24 since July 1st. Road games have been a major challenge for Milwaukee all season and the Brewers are 7-17 in the last 24, and about to head on a brutal nine-game road trip at the end of the month. The Brewers are just 5-7 in the last 12 home games as well, despite a dominant season record at Miller Park.

The likely return of ace Ben Sheets would be a huge plus for a struggling rotation but Milwaukee is just 11-18 in games that Sheets as started in August and September the past three seasons. Milwaukee has lost 15 consecutive games in which Chris Capuano has started and Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush have been very average on the season. The Brewers were hoping that rookie Yovani Gallardo could post numbers like rookies Francisco Liriano or Justin Verlander did last season and carry Milwaukee to the playoffs. Although Gallardo has been good, he has not performed at that level including allowing eleven runs in his last start.

Even with the problems in the starting rotation, it has been good enough to keep Milwaukee in first place. The problems of late have come from the bullpen which has had several major meltdowns reminiscent of meltdowns of the past few seasons. Francisco Cordero has the most saves in baseball but he has had four blown saves in the past six weeks. Set-up man Derrick Turnbow has also battled inconsistency after a great first half, and as last season showed he can be fragile and streaky. Adding Scott Linebrink adds some solidity but Brewers fans have had to hold their breath in the late innings recently.

The lineup has plenty of punch with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun carrying the team but there is not enough depth with the middle infielders struggling at the plate and the outfield power that has such great promise has not been consistent enough over great periods of time. The Brewers have also become one of the worst defensive teams in baseball with 84 errors on the season, third worst in the NL. The schedule is very tough at the end of August with a nine game road trip to Arizona, San Francisco, and Chicago but September schedule looks at least as favorable as the key division rivals.

Chicago Cubs: Everything was going the right way for the Cubs in July, but once the calendar turned the offense cooled down and the pitching has been suspect. Chicago caught the Brewers but the Cubs have not been able to overtake them, going 3-9 in the past twelve games while averaging fewer than four runs per game scored. Injuries have taken a toll with Alfonso Soriano out for a few more weeks and Aramis Ramirez missing some time as well, leaving big holes in the lineup.

Ace Carlos Zambrano has been shaky his past two starts but Ted Lilly has remained impressive. Jason Marquis and Rich Hill have been a bit up and down while Sean Marshall is starting to struggle. The bullpen has been good enough, but certainly can not be called a strong point. The upcoming schedule will provide the Cubs with enough opportunities as most games stay within the NL Central and there is just one West coast trip. Chicago does finish with 15 of the last 21 on the road however so if Chicago is going to make a run at the division, now would be the time to grab the lead.

St. Louis Cardinals: It is more than just wishful thinking for St. Louis as the division is there for the taking. Not having an ace starter with Chris Carpenter injured hurts and starting pitching is the main problem for St. Louis right now. Adam Wainwright has done his job all season but Braden Looper is starting to struggle after a strong start to the year. Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes both had nightmare first halves of the season but both are pitching well in recent starts. There is a chance that Mark Mulder could make an appearance down the stretch but overall this looks like a very shaky rotation.

Advertisement

The St. Louis bullpen has been very good with just eight losses on the season (compare with 23 for Chicago and 21 for Milwaukee). That could be an edge down the stretch. The lineup still features Albert Pujols and sometimes that is all you need. The Cardinals are averaging 5.5 runs per game in the last 18 games, going 11-7 which has put them back in the mix. The opportunity for the Cardinals is this week, playing on the road versus Milwaukee and Chicago. A good week could really close the gap. After those series, the Cardinals are at home for 20 of the final 35 games so anything is possible.

Houston Astros: Houston has a great opportunity because they play the Brewers six times, the Cubs six times, and the Cardinals seven times down the stretch. Posting a strong record in those games could make up the eight-game deficit quickly. The Astros also have the best true #1 starting pitcher of any of the four teams, and arguably in the entire NL. Roy Oswalt had some problems on the road early in the year but Houston is 11-2 in his last 13 starts and he has allowed just three earned runs in his last five starts. Oswalt has been the key to the rotation but the other starters have been promising or at least have the potential to put it together down the stretch.

Roy Oswalt: 13-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .262 BA against. Oswalt has been far and away the best starting pitcher in this division and one of the best in baseball the past few seasons. He is on a great run in recent starts and is capable of a dominant finish. There may still be some value with Oswalt on the road as his season road numbers are poor. He has dominated his past three road starts despite being an underdog or very slight favorite in all three games.

Wandy Rodriguez: 7-10, 4.34 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .253 BA against. Rodriguez is a bit of an enigma with ten starts allowing one or fewer runs and eight starts allowing five or more runs with little in between. The difference, like many things involving the Astros, is playing at home. Rodriguez is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA at home, 1-8 with an 8.16 ERA on the road.

Woody Williams: 6-12, 5.09 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .282 BA against. Much more was expected of Williams but his numbers the past two seasons benefited from playing in San Diego. The Astros are actually 4-1 in his last five starts and he needs to perform like a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for Houston to stay in the hunt.

Matt Albers: 3-5, 5.99 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .285 BA against. After he struggled in May as a starter Albers has been a reliever for most of the season until injuries forced him back into the rotation. He has performed well in his latest stint however with solid efforts in two of three outings. The numbers are ugly but there have been some positive signs.

Jason Jennings: 2-7, 6.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .297 BA against. Jennings will not get many more opportunities if the Astros actually make a charge. Injuries derailed him early in the season but Houston is 3-13 in his starts this season. Walks and home runs have both been major problems and this has easily been a career worst season.

Chris Sampson: 7-8, 4.53 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .288 BA against. Sampson should be back on the roster soon after a short DL trip. The right-hander and former position player has delivered solid results this season and can be a key to steady up the end of the rotation. Sampson had great numbers in May and June but struggled in July.

Brandon Backe: N/A No innings pitched on the season but there is a chance that Backe could get back for a few September starts. He had elbow surgery last fall and has made two rehabilitation starts in August. If Backe is not rushed the Astros could call on prospects Troy Patton or Juan Gutierez if needed.

The bullpen ahs been a serious problem for the Astros this season with a 4.94 ERA and 20 blown saves. Closer Brad Lidge has performed well in recent weeks however and Chad Qualls has delivered a strong year. If the Astros fail to improve down the stretch the bullpen could be a cluprit.

The Astros have not had a great season offensively but the pieces are there. Carlos Lee is having a great year. Lance Berkman is not hitting for a high average as he is capable of, but he is still highly productive. Houston added Ty Wiggington from Tampa Bay and star rookie Hunter Pence should be back in action soon after a trip to the DL. Adam Everett is on pace to return in the coming weeks as well. The offense has been good enough to hold its own with the slumping Brewers and has already outperformed St. Louis and the injury-plagued Cubs on the season in terms of run production. The Astros also have the fourth most walks in the NL and the fourth fewest strikeouts which is a good combination for success.

In addition to playing the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals down the stretch the Astros have a favorable finish to the schedule. Six games come against Pittsburgh and as well as catching series with Washington and Cincinnati. A tricky series in New York is waiting and the season ends with a four-game home series against Atlanta. Houston is playing great ball right now winning six of the last eight games. In the last 27 home games the Astros are 18-9 and there has been improvement on the road with a 6-5 record in the last eleven games. If Houston can continue to win two-thirds of the home games and somehow play .500 on the road there is a good chance the Astros will play their way into a division race.