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NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Mets Forecast: OVER 93½ WINS
The 2007 season was a huge disappointment for the Mets as New York led the NL East comfortably for most of the season and then blew a seven-game lead in the final 17 days of the season. Adding Johan Santana to the top of the rotation will make a huge difference and he could have a huge year in a fly ball pitcher’s park with most of the NL hitters not accustomed to him. Pedro Martinez barely played for the Mets last season and all indications are that he is healthy and ready to pitch this year. John Maine could also have a breakout year after a very solid season in 2007. Age is a concern with the lineup as Moises Alou, Carlos Delgado, and Luis Castillo are projected starters and injuries are already mounting this spring.
Overall, the offense should be among the more productive units in the NL still. Acquired OF Ryan Church looks likely to start in right and Brain Schneider will provide a solid backstop, but will be the weak link in the batting order. With MVP candidates Jose Reyes and David Wright in the lineup there will be few cold spells as long as the team can emotionally rebound from the devastating finish to the 2007 season. Given that the other two NL East contenders failed to make serious upgrades this will again be New York’s division to lose.
Phillies Forecast: UNDER 88½ WINS
The expectations for the Phillies are extremely high after a late season run pushed Philadelphia into the playoffs for the first time since 1993. The Phillies have had a remarkably consistent record in the last four years but it is the type of record that usually sits just outside of the postseason and last year’s stay was very brief, losing in three games to Colorado. Spring training got off to an ominous start with newly acquired closer Brad Lidge injuring his knee. Tom Gordon is a solid safety-net but he is already pitching with a partially torn labrum. Moving Brett Myers back into the rotation may not be a smooth transition and although he had a tremendous year in 2007, Cole Hamels also has had injury issues.
Jimmy Rollins may have trouble replicating his MVP season given his career numbers are much lower. Geoff Jenkins can provide some power against right-handers but he will require a platoon with Jayson Werth and that combination likely can’t match the spark Aaron Rowand brought. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard still provide big bats but overall the lineup is weaker than last season. The Phillies are still a solid team but the playoffs will not be handed to them again this season.
Braves Forecast: OVER 85½ WINS
Two straight years without the Braves in the playoffs seems unusual but it will likely be the way things are for the near future. After Atlanta rolled the dice with the big Mark Teixeira trade many considered Atlanta to be one of the favorites in the National League but the results were marginal. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson remain solid veterans at the top of the rotation but the rest of starting pitching is a big concern. Bringing Tom Glavine back to Atlanta provides a nice storyline but the veteran left-hander struggled in the second-half of last season. Mike Hampton is back in the picture and if he can provide some quality innings it will be a huge boost.
There are several young arms that will likely get into the starting rotation this season given the age and injury concerns for the veterans on the staff. Rafael Soriano should emerge as a top-tier closer but the lineup has a few big shoes to fill as Yunel Escobar replaces Edgar Renteria and Mark Kotsay will replace Andrew Jones. If Jo-Jo Reyes or Jair Jurrjens can emerge as full-time starter the Braves can compete and the lineup still has the ability to score a lot of runs with Teixeira, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur in the middle of the order. Look for the Braves to be the biggest threat to the Mets in this division.
Nationals Forecast: OVER 71½ WINS
A new stadium will provide a lift for Nationals in terms of fan support but it will take some time to get accustomed to the new park for the players. After the first month of the 2007 season the Nats looked on pace for an MLB worst caliber season but Washington proved to be a pleasant surprise posting a respectable record and solid efforts despite cycling through over a dozen starting pitchers. One bright spot was the superb season from veteran Dimitri Young who Washington took a chance on despite his past baggage. The Nats hope to capture similar results with a few more clubhouse wildcards, acquiring Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, two talented young players that carry some past issues.
The pitching rotation is unproven but Shawn Hill, John Patterson, and Jason Bergmann have had short periods of great success at the big league level. Keeping healthy will be the biggest issue for the young staff. Washington has featured a strong and deep bullpen since moving to the D.C. area and the bullpen could see a lot of innings should injuries again be a problem in the rotation. The lineup is more talented and the pitching is there for an improved season.
Marlins Forecast: UNDER 68½ WINS
Florida has exceeded expectations in the past and it won’t be difficult to do so again this year as the expectations are extremely low. A blockbuster trade rid the Marlins of their two most well-known players but also brought back talented young players that will get opportunities this season. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez will now be the face of the team but he may have difficulty posting the same type of numbers with so few serious threats behind him in the lineup. Defense and strikeouts will likely continue to be huge problems for the Marlins but this is a roster that could be very good in a few years.
Scott Olsen has brought his share of distractions but he is capable of being a #1 starter on this team. Sergio Mitre was solid last season and acquired left-hander Andrew Miller is a highly rated prospect that picked up valuable experience in Detroit last season. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez will both be on the disabled list until at least mid-season so the rotation will be a very thin. Florida appears set for a very long year but the Marlins have exceeded expectations in each of the past two years and the big trade will pay off down the road.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs: OVER 87½ WINS
The Cubs finally found some consistency late last summer to overtake the NL Central but the collapse from Milwaukee played just as great a role. Chicago spent big money on Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome which theoretically provides stability in the outfield. The Cubs were a playoff team because of starting pitching as Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, and Jason Marquis carried the load early before ace Carlos Zambrano found his groove. The Cubs intend to mover former closer Ryan Dempster into the rotation and Chicago should have by the best rotation in this division with solid prospects waiting if there are injuries or struggles.
The Cubs will be banking on the middle infield getting similar production from last season as Ryan Theriot, Mark DeRosa, and Mike Fontenot were pleasant surprises last season. Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol will shore up the bullpen with Kerry Wood being named the closer but there is not great depth relative to some of the other NL Central contenders. A possible issue that may be overlooked is the attempt to bring in rookie catcher Geovany Soto for his offense but it could take some adjustment time to earn the trust of the pitching staff.
Milwaukee Brewers: UNDER 84 WINS
Expectations are very high for the Brewers after storming out to a big lead in the NL Central early last season. Milwaukee eventually faded but there are some promising signs with several young pitchers with a chance to get significant innings and a full year with Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun and breakout right fielder Corey Hart in the regular lineup. Veteran Jason Kendall is known for great pitching management and if he can make a difference the pitching staff could be very good. The Brewers have the potential to have a great rotation but injuries are a concern with Ben Sheets and Yovani Gallardo.
Jeff Suppan was okay but did not produce as expected last season and Chris Capuano will miss the season. Adding Eric Gagne as a closer is a big risk and time will tell which version of Gagne will be there this season. Adding Mike Cameron to the outfield could provide a spark but the key will be the performance of Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks, both coming off disappointing seasons. The lineup should be very good but starting pitching and defense could still be issues.
Reds Forecast: UNDER 78½ WINS
The Reds are getting a lot of attention as an improved team but closer Francisco Cordero was the only key addition. Cincinnati had the worst bullpen in the NL last season with an incredible 28 blown saves and an ERA of 5.13. The rotation still lacks depth although Aaron Harang has been one of the best in the NL. Matt Belisle and Bronson Arroyo are solid innings-eaters but they combined for just 17 wins last season.
If prized 21-year old Homer Bailey is healthy and productive Cincinnati may have a chance to compete but that is counting on a lot. New Manager Dusty Baker has had success with other teams but this will be a tougher turnaround as the Reds have not had a winning season since 2000. The defense sports one of the best middle-infields in baseball and the lineup has potential but is mostly unproven outside of the stars in the middle of the lineup.
Cardinals Forecast: OVER 77 WINS
Albert Pujols has been lighting it up in spring training and after a somewhat down season last year he could return to prominence and make the Cardinals relevant again. The lineup will look drastically different than the 2006 World Series team with Pujols and Yadier Molina as the lone holdovers that are still in the starting lineup. Troy Glaus was added in a trade with Toronto of former elite third basemen and the potential for an improved offense is there with Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus, and Chris Duncan in the lineup full-time.
Converted relievers Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper were solid last season and could improve a rotation that remains much as it did a year ago and the bullpen remains strong with Jason Isringhausen quietly having a great season last year. Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder will likely join the rotation when healthy so if the cards can stay in the mix, they could finish strong with a pretty solid set of starting pitchers.
Astros Forecast: OVER 74½ WINS
The Astros have been completely revamped but Roy Oswalt is still one of the few elite pitchers in the game and the middle of the lineup looks very threatening with Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee batting consecutively. The defense will suffer a bit after shaking up the roster but this could be one of the better offenses in the NL. Manager Cecil Cooper will get his shot as a full-time manager after taking over in August last season.
Houston picked up closer Jose Valverde from Arizona and overall the starting pitching should be good enough around Oswalt with Brandon Backe now healthy and Woody Williams and Wandy Rodriguez making positive contributions last season despite delivering few wins. Houston would benefit from adding another front-line starting pitcher but there simply were not many viable candidates in free agency. If Houston can stay in the hunt look for aggressive new GM Ed Wade to be willing to make a big move.
Pirates Forecast: UNDER 68½ WINS
Pittsburgh’s organization featured a complete overhaul with a new president, GM, and manager with hopes of halting a 15-year streak of losing. One thing the Pirates do have is at least the makings of a solid starting rotation. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny both posted ERAs under 4.00 last season and Matt Morris and Paul Maholm are capable of having success. Matt Capps also emerged as a steady closer last season.
Pittsburgh’s lineup will not be able to match the production of the other teams in this division, so even with decent pitching the Pirates might not put together many wins. Star outfielder Jason Bay is coming off a disappointing season and he needs to return to his productive past or expect him to be moved. Center fielder Nyjer Morgan showed promise last season and could be a spark at the top of the lineup. It is tough to envision much improvement from Pittsburgh and the Pirates will likely remain well below .500 even with decent pitching.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Diamondbacks Forecast: OVER 87½ WINS
Arizona looks to repeat as division champions in the highly competitive NL West and the tools are there to make it happen. The starting rotation should rival San Diego for the best in the division with Dan Haren joining Brandon Webb and an apparently healthy Randy Johnson. Losing closer Jose Valverde is a major loss however and the lineup, though promising with young talent, will likely be unable to produce at the level of Colorado or Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks do feature a great deal of young talent however and the organization is in position to be a serious contender for many years to come.
Even though rookie Chris Young hit 32 home runs last season from the leadoff position, this is not a lineup that features a lot of power but speed and contact are major strengths. If Haren has a smooth transition back to the NL and either Randy Johnson or 2nd year starter Micah Owings can move into a solid #3 spot in the rotation, this team becomes a serious postseason threat. Arizona was a surprise team to make the playoffs last season so a slight drop-off could be expected but this looks like a solid club top to bottom if a closer emerges and the starting pitching stays healthy.
Dodgers Forecast: OVER 87 WINS
Los Angeles was an overwhelming favorite to win the NL West last season but after a competitive start the Dodgers faded in the late summer and ended up in fourth place in the highly competitive division. The big addition to the team came in high profile manager Joe Torre and there will be significant pressure on this team to make the playoffs this season. The Dodgers looked overseas to find another solid starting pitcher with the addition of Hiroki Kuroda from Japan and Brad Penny is coming off a strong season even if he faltered late in the year.
Derek Lowe had good numbers last season but had a losing record with limited run support and Chad Billingsley delivered a fantastic season for the Dodgers and could emerge as a legitimate top-end starter. The huge contract for Jason Schmidt was a disaster last season but the team is hopeful he will be healthy this season. If Kuroda pans out and Schmidt returns to form, the Dodgers would rival any rotation in baseball. Andruw Jones adds a powerful bat to the middle of the lineup and this is a deep team with a good mix of proven veterans and rising stars.
Padres Forecast: UNDER 84 WINS
Pitching carried the Padres ever so close to the playoffs but a painful tiebreaker game against the Rockies ended the season bitterly. Cy Young winner Jake Peavy leads the rotation but it will be difficult to expect a follow-up season as dominant. Chris Young had a breakout season last year but injuries are a concern and veteran Greg Maddux was re-signed. The Padres also will take a chance on two injury-plagued pitchers with potential, Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. The rotation remains very strong but did not improve as much as Arizona and Los Angeles.
San Diego did not do anything of note to improve the offense so this will be a team that relies on pitching in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. The bullpen also will remain one of the best in the league with Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, and Cla Meredith. San Diego has been a good team that has not been able to take the next step, the 2008 version looks very similar and the competition appears more prepared to rise above the Padres despite retaining a great pitching staff and a solid lineup. It will be interesting to see how San Diego responds to start this season after closing 2007 in such a disappointing fashion.
Rockies Forecast: UNDER 83½ WINS
Colorado rode an incredible late season win streak all the way to the World Series but 2008 could lead to a step back after having everything fall together. Colorado’s starting pitching can not compete with the top three teams in the NL West in overall depth and quality but the Rockies have a capable group of starters than can be successful in a hitter’s park. Having Aaron Cook and Jason Hirsh healthy should be a big plus and Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales can only benefit from getting big game experience last season. The Rockies should have great continuity on offense as the lineup will remain nearly identical from the World Series team with second base as the lone exception after Kaz Matsui’s departure.
The Rockies were one of the best defensive teams in baseball last season and this is still a very dangerous lineup anchored by Matt Holiday and Troy Tulowitzki. The bullpen remains solid and Colorado has a deep and talented farm system that should keep Colorado competitive in the coming years or provide the opportunity to make a move for a key piece in a playoff push if needed in this difficult division.
Giants Forecast: UNDER 71½ WINS
The Giants lost their best player in the off-season but most seem to expect a positive impact from the departure of Barry Bonds. The NL West is all about starting pitching and the Giants can be in the conversation this season with a promising young group of starters behind big-money ace Barry Zito. The Giants likely had greater expectations for Zito but year two could be a better season. Matt Cain was a tough luck loser in many games last season and should see his record turn around this season. Tim Lincecum and Noah Lowry both had stretches of dominance last season and can be elite starters for San Francisco.
Brain Wilson is set to assume the closer role but the Giants have some question marks and concerns in the bullpen. There are still many veteran holdovers on this squad but the lineup will feature somewhat more of a youth movement although overall the offensive production will likely be towards the bottom of the NL. Wins will be tough to come by in this division and although many believe in the ‘addition by subtraction’ theory, a team doesn’t get better by losing such a potent bat in the lineup.
