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AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Red Sox Forecast: UNDER 94½ WINS
In recent years winning the World Series has meant a significant drop in the standings the following season. Boston will retain more players from last year’s championship squad however and this still looks like a team that is ready to contend for another title. Injuries in the pitching staff are a big concern with Curt Schilling already on the shelf for what could be a very long time and ace Josh Beckett will start the season on the DL. Beckett had a brilliant 2007 season but he has a long history of injuries and it would not be surprising to see a major drop in production. Young starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz both appear ready to find regular innings but the Red Sox may regret not going harder after Johan Santana if the injuries linger.
The lineup will look almost identical to last season with very few additions or subtractions. Jacoby Ellsbury had a huge finish to the season last year and was a big part of the success in the playoffs but he will need to prove he can handle being an everyday player for a full season. Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew had somewhat disappointing seasons last year so there is actually room for improvement in a still very solid offensive team. The bullpen remains very strong although some depth was lost. Boston will be challenged this season with New York, Toronto, and Tampa Bay all looking improved.
Yankees Forecast: OVER 93½ WINS
The Joe Torre era is over and Joe Girardi will be under a lot of pressure to prove that the New York brass made the right decision. It is unusual to see a Yankees team with very few additions from the previous season but this will be a very similar team with the main difference being an expanded role for a trio of young pitchers with great potential. Even though Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy are mostly untested the rotation should be solid as there are enough options if there are injuries or struggles. Andy Pettitte endured a troubled off-season but he remains a solid option in the rotation and Chien-Ming Wang has been one of the best starters in the AL the last three years.
Mike Mussina and Kei Igawa could be the key to whether the Yankees can overtake Boston as both pitchers had poor 2007 seasons. Offensively this is still arguably the most dangerous lineup in baseball. There are no weak spots and the there could even be an improvement with the continued development of Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano. Also Hideki Matsui will be back after missing much of last season with a knee injury. Shelley Duncan is also a promising hitter that will get more time in 2008. This squad looks good enough to win the division.
Blue Jays Forecast: OVER 85 WINS
Toronto has won at least 80 games each of the past three seasons but has yet to make serious run at contending in the very tough AL East. This team appears to be closer to bridging the gap but it is probably not quite there. Adding Scott Rolen should be an upgrade if healthy and David Eckstein has been a catalyst for success on winning teams despite defensive deficiencies. The middle of the lineup looks dangerous if injuries are avoided. The pitching staff has enough talent to compete with both Boston and New York featuring some question marks and relying on unproven young arms.
Roy Halladay did not have his best season last year but is still a workhorse and an elite starter. A.J. Burnett has not been able to stay healthy but remains a strong option and Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum had success last season. Casey Janssen was already lost for the season but there is enough depth with Jesse Litsch or Gustavo Chacin capable of stepping in. B.J. Ryan is still not completely healthy but Jeremy Accardo was a great step-in closer last season. This is a very good team that will not be satisfied with third place.
Rays Forecast: UNDER 74½ WINS
The Rays look like a solid team but expecting a franchise best mark in wins might be too optimistic. In theory the rotation is greatly improved with the addition of Matt Garza and the continued improvement of young pitchers Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Edwin Jackson, but injuries are a concern and consistency has not yet been proven. The Rays had one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season and the addition of Troy Percival could help, but this is a team that will likely still lose some games in the later innings. The offense has great speed and talent but there will be a few question marks. Shortstop Jason Bartlett was very streaky while with Minnesota and also was a defensive liability at times.
Akinori Iwamura will move to second base and highly-touted prospect Evan Longoria will have a chance to start at third. Carlos Pena had a great 2007 season, but matching that production will be difficult. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton will be the key to the Rays success as they are two of the most exciting talents in the game. This will be a fun team to watch but the pitching is still not there to realistically deliver a winning season in this division.
Orioles Forecast: UNDER 66 WINS
When a team trades its best hitter and its best pitcher in the off-season it should be a clear signal that serious rebuilding is going on. Jeremy Guthrie was an unknown rookie last season and he will now be the staff ace after a solid season. Adam Loewen has shown promise but still has control issues and was injured most of last season and Daniel Cabrera continues to maddeningly inconsistent. This is a very shaky rotation and the bullpen is also unproven with George Sherrill landing the closer job. There are some decent hitters in this lineup but decent won’t cut it in this division. Nick Marakis could be one of the top players in the game but he will have little help around him in the lineup.
The lineup has several experienced players but none of them have consistently performed at a high level. Luis Hernandez will be an untested shortstop that is valued for his defense but the Orioles will need career seasons out of several of the veterans in order to finish higher than fourth in this loaded division. Baltimore used to be able to count on Tampa Bay to sit in the basement but that looks in serious danger this season with the improved Rays squad.
AMERCIAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Tigers Forecast: UNDER 94½ WINS
The Tigers engineered one of the biggest off-season trades in recent memory getting both Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera from Florida. The Tigers gave up a couple of big pieces to make the deal but it instantly makes Detroit one of the favorites in AL. It didn’t create headlines, but Detroit also added Edgar Renteria from Atlanta adding to a very impressive lineup. The starting rotation is pretty solid with Justin Verlander emerging as a true ace going 18-6 last season. Kenny Rogers missed much of last season but if he can return to his 2006 form it will be a great 1-2 punch. Willis had a disappointing year last year but there won’t be the pressure to be the ace like he faced in Florida.
Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson are coming off disappointing seasons but are much more solid options that most teams have at the back of the rotation. The bullpen leaves some questions with a couple of key pieces starting the season on the DL but Todd Jones has been getting the job done despite less than dominant numbers. Zach Miner will be a solid bullpen member or a spot starter if needed and if Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya return to health Detroit has it all.
Indians Forecast: OVER 90½ WINS
Cleveland was so close to the World Series last season but could not close the deal. Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia struggled in the post-season, but he and Fausto Carmona both won 19 games last season. Jake Westbrook has pitched brilliantly this spring and he appears to finally be completely healthy. Paul Byrd and Cliff Lee have both had solid major league success so the rotation is very solid top to bottom but we can’t bank on repeat seasons from Sabathia and Carmona. Cleveland did not make many moves to improve the lineup but the offense was good enough last year even with Travis Hafner having an off year and Grady Sizemore falling a bit short of his projected numbers.
The lineup does not look as threatening as Detroit’s but it is just as effective. The Indian bullpen was also a strong point last season and Japanese addition Masahide Kobayashi can add additional depth. Joe Borowski led the AL in saves despite falling short in a few big spots. This is still a very good team that will be set on getting back to the playoffs. The pitching staff looks superior to Detroit’s even if the lineup is not quite as intimidating.
White Sox Forecast: OVER 77½ WINS
Chicago had a big drop off last season with a 27-win drop from the 2005 World Series team. Chicago made a few moves to improve the lineup with Orlando Cabrera acquired at shortstop and Nick Swisher in center field. Both had good seasons last year and will set the table for a strong middle of the lineup. For Chicago to return to winning, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye will need to bounce back from disappointing seasons as both hit in the .250s. Chicago took a big gamble trading Jon Garland as he had been a consistent spot in the rotation. John Danks and Gavin Floyd will be counted on in the rotation but neither were able to put together a full season of consistency last year.
Javier Vazquez quietly had an excellent year in 2007 but Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras were not as reliable. The Chicago bullpen is strong with Bobby Jenks delivering 40 saves last season and a nice addition in Scott Linebrink. Chicago still has the ammunition to deliver a lot of runs and three proven pitchers in the rotation are enough to keep this team competitive. Improving on last season should not be a problem but keeping pace with Detroit and Cleveland will be difficult.
Twins Forecast: OVER 73 WINS
Minnesota may realize how important Johan Santana was pretty quickly as Livan Hernandez is slated to be the opening day starter. Hernandez would be solid addition as a fourth or fifth starter but he will be the only proven starter on the staff. Boof Bonser has lost some weight and can bounce back from second half struggles in 2007 but the Twins will need Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker to pitch well after up and down stretches last season. The return of Francisco Liriano is a big wild card but expectations should be grounded. The bullpen is still one of the best in the AL but the unit will likely get a lot of extra work this season.
Minnesota features a couple of great players on offense and the addition of Delmon Young will be a positive but there are still some big holes. Justin Morneau will be the only infielder that started 2007 with the Twins and for Minnesota to compete he and Joe Mauer will need to live up to their reputations. The Twins need to get some production out of the DH and third base positions and Mike Lamb and Jason Kubel will be given the first opportunities. Ultimately consistent starting pitching is not likely to be there for the Twins but the offense and bullpen can keep the team from falling too far.
Royals Forecast: UNDER 72½ WINS
There was a lot to like about what the Royals did in parts of last season as Kansas City would actually have been a .500 team if not for a horrible 11-26 start and a September fade. Gil Meche pitched much better than his record suggests and he did a lot to legitimize the Kansas City rotation. Rookie Brian Bannister was a also a bright spot and if he can have a similar year this can be an improved team. The rest of the pitching staff features a lot of castaways getting a second chance after struggles with other teams but both Chicago and Minnesota also have big question marks in the back of the rotation as well.
Jose Guillen adds a little more power to the lineup and Bully Butler could be a star in the making for the Royals lineup. Alex Gordon did not have a strong start last season but he should have less pressure on him this season. There are some nice pieces in this lineup but overall it doesn’t come close to any of the other teams in the division. The Royals pitching is coming together however and if one of the veteran additions steps up this will be a respectable team.
AMERCIAN LEAGUE WEST
Angels Forecast: UNDER 92½ WINS
Torii Hunter and Jon Garland are big additions for the Angels but replacing Orlando Cabrera will likely be more difficult than most think. The Angels got a career season out of Kelvim Escobar last year and both he and John Lackey are not going to be healthy to start the season. The Angels bullpen is normally a strong point but late last season some problems developed. The Angels are still the favorites in this weak division but the record may drop and another early playoff exit will be the most likely scenario in the current state. Jered Weaver could not repeat his hot rookie year and the Angels need to be worried about his career path following his brother’s. Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have shown flashes of brilliance but neither has earned a comfortable place in the rotation.
The offense is still strong but there are five capable outfielders on the roster and the infield will be featuring players that have not yet proven capable of a full season of success. The young catching tandem will also need to work. The Angels did win the most home games in baseball last season and should be the best team in this division as long as Vladimir Guerrero is in the lineup but the pitching staff will be a weakness until the top two starters find their way back to the mound.
Mariners Forecast: UNDER 77½ WINS
Seattle added two pitchers with Erik Bedard moving in as an ace to take pressure off Felix Hernandez and Carlos Silva to be an innings-eater in the middle of the rotation. Bedard was off to a Cy Young caliber season last year before shutting down to injury but injuries have been a concern in his career. Silva never really had great success in Minnesota and is a bit of a risk especially considering his contract and he could be hurt by a fairly marginal infield defense on the right side. J.J. Putz is an elite level closer but the rest of bullpen is a bit of a question mark. The offense did not make any significant additions and Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson continue to be disappointments.
Brad Wilkerson moves into right field and Raul Ibanez is a solid hitter with Ichiro in the middle but overall it is an impatient lineup that will not have a great on-base-percentage. Seattle had a hot start last season to surprisingly stay in the playoff race until late in the year but Bedard may not be enough of a addition to make a significant impact. This division can be had with the Angels looking a bit vulnerable but Seattle may not be the team to move up as Oakland and Texas both look improved.
Rangers Forecast: OVER 74½ WINS
Starting pitching will continue to doom the Rangers. Texas had a 5.50 ERA from starters last season and the only addition is Jason Jennings, who had a horrible year for the Astros. Texas will have a solid offense with Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley added to the mix but both have concerns in their backgrounds. Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a key piece in the Mark Teixeira trade and he can contribute on offense but likely is not good enough behind the plate to be an everyday catcher. Gerald Laird will likely need to handle the pitchers despite being a big drop offensively. If Hank Blalock can have a strong season after missing most of last year this could be a powerful offense in the hitting-friendly home ballpark.
Second year manager Ron Washington survived some hurdles last season and should have the team more together this year. Even with some nice pieces on offense the Rangers can not realistically contend for the playoffs with this pitching staff. Last year Texas had a very solid bullpen to help out the rough starting pitching but the relief corps is mainly unproven with veteran Eddie Guardado as insurance in case C.J. Wilson struggles in his first full year as closer.
Athletics Forecast: OVER 73½ WINS
Oakland made a lot of moves and shook up the roster a bit this off-season but there are young players ready to produce in this lineup. The pitching staff will be capable with Rich Harden and Joe Blanton at the top provided they can stay healthy. Chad Gaudin and Lenny DiNardo were solid surprises last season and reliever Jason Duchscherer will be given a chance to start this year. Huston Street was injured most of last season but can still be an excellent closer and there are a few other capable arms in the pen with Kiki Calero and Alan Embree even though neither had a great year last season.
The lineup will depend on young unproven players but in limited action last season the potential was displayed. Emil Brown was a nice pick-up for the A’s and he could flourish outside of Kansas City. Eric Chavez won’t start the season healthy and it may be a make or break year for the third baseman who is still a great defender but has seen his offensive contributions decline. A’s GM Billy Beane has made some head-scratching moves in the past but his track record is hard to argue with. Don’t be surprised if the A’s are back in playoff contention this season as the lineup has a lot of potential and the pitching looks pretty solid in a division that does not feature great rotations.
