Most people recognize that 'Wins' is a somewhat overrated statistic for determining the quality of starting pitchers but baseball side bettors aren’t necessarily looking for the best statistical pitchers, just pitchers that help teams win. Every year several pitchers start the year strong with wins in April and it can be easy to put too much stock into the early season results. Some starters that get off to hot starts end up being successful and profitable pitchers to get behind, while others are eventually exposed as fortunate in the early going. Here is our analysis of some of the starters off to 3-0 starts in the first three weeks of the season. Excluded from this list are proven commodities and consistent heavy favorites like Ben Sheets and Jake Peavy, as well as pitchers with limited previous starting results to judge from like Micah Owings and Ryan Dempster.

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Cliff Lee, Cleveland: 3-0, 0.40 ERA
Cliff Lee was not expected by many to earn a spot in the rotation this season for the Indians but youngsters Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey struggled this spring and Lee pitched well enough to get another shot after a disastrous 2007 season. Lee was a legitimate Cy Young contender in 2005 with a 18-5 record but he struggled considerably last season and did not even make the playoff roster for the Indians. Lee has been brilliant in 2008 with just one earned run allowed in three starts and 20 strikeouts. Cleveland has greatly struggled early this year despite Lee’s success so there are some reasons for concern when considering backing Lee and the Indians. Lee has also faced two weak hitting teams, Minnesota and Oakland twice in his three outings which may be a contributing factor to his early success. Lee should probably be avoided as a favorite unless he proves this type of success for a greater period of time and the Indians offense and bullpen show improvement. Opponents are currently hitting just .111 against Lee so he clearly is doing something right, but expect this to be more a fluke start than something sustainable.

Zack Greinke, Kansas City: 3-0, 1.24 ERA
The Royals have been a pleasant surprise this season and pitching has been the reason with the success of Zack Greinke playing no small role. Greinke went 5-17 in 2005 and in hindsight he was probably rushed up to the big leagues a little too soon. After an extended absence from the game, Greinke returned to have a respectable season last year serving as a reliever in the middle of the season before getting back to a starting role with great success late in 2007. Going back to last fall, Greinke has allowed just eleven runs in his past ten starts and he has the talent to be a high level pitcher in the American League. Kansas City’s bullpen has had great success early this season so there are reasons to be optimistic that Greinke can remain a play-on pitcher. The Royals offense will never be among the league’s best but Kansas City will also find nice underdog value in many match-ups. Greinke is a pitcher to look for as an underdog and given the Royals low-output offense it may be worth looking at ‘under’ plays as Greinke continues a successful start to 2008.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco: 3-0, 1.57 ERA
The expectations are low for the Giants this season but after a brutal first week things are looking improved. The schedule has been very tough for the Giants with teams off to hot starts like Arizona and St. Louis featured prominently as well as a tough road series against Milwaukee. Despite matching up against tough opponents, Tim Lincecum has pitched extremely well and the Giants are 4-0 in his four appearances. The Giants have scored three or fewer runs in three of those outings but it has been enough, as Lincecum has allowed only four runs in 23 innings. Run support will likely continue to be a problem for Lincecum and his record will eventually suffer. Lincecum is also far from an unknown talent as he has been a highly regarded prospect for some time so he won’t catch underdog value often, even though San Francisco is unlikely to be a winning team. There will be situations to pick spots playing on Lincecum but overall the rest of his team will be hard to rely on for him to remain a highly profitable pitcher to back.

Dan Haren, Arizona: 3-0, 1.80 ERA
Haren has been everything the Diamondbacks could have hoped for so far after landing the former Oakland ace this off-season. There are few a reasons to be weary of the early numbers however. The A’s were just 8-9 behind Haren in road games last season and his numbers did benefit from the great pitcher’s park in Oakland. Haren is 3-0 at home this season for the Diamondbacks but he was much less effective in his lone road start this season, allowing two home runs in a game that Arizona eventually lost in the bullpen. Arizona is off to an incredible start at the plate this season and in his three wins Haren has received 28 runs of offense, numbers that simply are not going to continue. Haren has established himself as a very solid pitcher the last few seasons but he is going to be valued as an elite pitcher especially with Arizona off to such a hot start. Haren is probably a pitcher to consider going against in road games as a favorite and he may have a hard time keeping this pace together.

Joe Saunders, LA Angels: 3-0, 2.15 ERA
Opposing batters hit .298 off Saunders last season but he had produced great numbers in 2008. Although the Angels are 4-0 in his starts this season, the numbers are getting progressively worse in each outing. Saunders has allowed only seven runs in over 29 innings but he has just 12 strikeouts and he has pitched enough at this level to expect the numbers to drop back to earth after a few more starts. Saunders may still be a solid option in some situations considering how the strong the Angels are at home and the value he could receive as relatively unknown pitcher to non-baseball followers. As a left-hander he also will present match-up problems for several teams that are not as well suited for southpaws. Saunders is worth keeping an eye on but the reality is the losses will be coming, although he is capable of still having a solid season.

Livan Hernandez, Minnesota: 3-0, 3.00 ERA
Hernandez is a veteran innings-eater and the Twins have to be thrilled with the early results from the free-agent acquisition, particularly after misfiring on a couple of veteran pitching signings last season. Hernandez was a valuable piece of the NL West division champion Diamondbacks last season and he has been a key member of two World Series teams earlier in his career so he clearly is a capable starter for a Minnesota team that will likely be competitive, if not a dark horse candidate in the playoff race. Hernandez has just eight strikeouts this season but Minnesota is 4-0 behind him despite modest scoring numbers. Hernandez is going to get hit hard in a few games this season but Minnesota’s bullpen should come around and the Twins are a team that can be undervalued in many situations. Hernandez seems to be the most obvious of the potentially phony 3-0 starters but he is the most experienced and likely doesn’t get the credit or line respect of other veteran pitchers that have similar numbers in the last few seasons. For example since 2005, Hernandez has a better winning percentage than Jamie Moyer or Greg Maddux and more wins than Tom Glavine or Randy Johnson yet he is generally not regarded or valued at the same level as those veterans at similar points in their careers.

Carlos Silva, 3-0, 2.79 ERA
Many criticized the signing of Silva by the Mariners and it is fair with their track record of big free agent signings but Silva has been exactly what Seattle was looking for through his first four starts. Silva is not a pitcher that is going to strike out a lot of batters and he allows a great deal of hits but he also induces a high number of double plays and rarely allows walks. Seattle’s bullpen is good enough to keep leads and Silva will generally keep the team in the game as you long as the offense can get a few runs on the board. Silva was just two games above .500 the last four years with the Twins however, an unimpressive mark especially considering that Minnesota won two division titles with him in the rotation in that span. Silva seems like a poor fit in Safeco Field and with a somewhat marginal defense behind him the record will likely even out in the coming weeks. Seattle has scored 24 runs in his four starts, numbers well above the rest of the season and Silva will likely remain about a 50/50 proposition but his early season numbers will force an inflated perception.