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Sunshine State 'Pens
May 3, 2008
By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Joe Nelson has been crushing the books since April 19, posting a 10-1 record for a plus 1079 money total!
R elief pitching is often an underrated aspect of baseball handicapping but it is no coincidence that some of the top money teams in baseball through the first month of the season are also among the leaders in bullpen ERA. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the best team in baseball in just about every measure through April and the Diamondbacks also boast some of the best relief pitching numbers as well. That is not a big surprise, but the two teams in Florida are a big surprise to currently be ranked as the top two bullpens in baseball based on ERA.
The Florida Marlins were not expected to contend in a tough NL East division with powerful lineups and star-studded rotations stacking the Phillies, Mets, and Braves but Florida will be right in the mix as we enter May. The Marlins were a last place team in 2007 but they were mostly competitive, winning 71 games. A Florida squad that many expected would be the worst in baseball in 2006 finished just a few games below .500 and this year’s Marlins squad was expected to struggle especially after giving up their two most well known players in a trade with Detroit. The Marlins still have a lineup that can put pressure on opposing defenses and Hanley Ramirez has proven that he could well be the best all around player in the game. The key for Florida’s solid start to the season, and the key for the Marlins to stay competitive will be pitching however.
Florida has won two World Series titles in the last eleven years and they have an effective system of shuffling through young talent. They alienate fans in the process by refusing to keep the big-name, big-contract players and filing the roster with young unproven players but the system works. Florida is stocked with young pitching talent which is the most valuable commodity in baseball and once the Marlins have a team that can compete they have the chips to pull trade-deadline deals to make a playoff push. The Marlins likely won’t be to that point this season but the young pitching staff is showing a great deal of promise.
Anyone that knows anything about statistics will tell you that the Marlins have been fortunate this season as they have actually been outscored despite being a few games above .500. The winning record won’t hold up if that continues to be the case but an effective bullpen is a key part of winning close games. Florida’s bullpen has the best numbers in the National League with a 2.73 ERA as opponents are hitting just .234 against Florida’s relievers. Florida has won six of the nine games decided in the bullpen this season and Florida’s pitching staff remains strong despite a wave of injuries that would be devastating to most teams. Florida currently has six pitchers that would likely be on the big-league roster if healthy sitting on the disabled list, three starters and three relievers.
The trio of relievers that have been the most important for the Marlins are Renyel Pinto, Justin Miller, and Kevin Gregg. Lefthander Pinto has posted incredible numbers so far this season and he has actually been tougher on right-hander hitters as they are hitting just .175 against him. Pinto had good numbers in 57 appearances last season but he has stepped it up this season with an ERA of 1.02 in 14 appearances. The Blue Jays had little success with Miller as a starter but he has found a home in the Florida bullpen and he has allowed just four runs this season. Many seem to still be skeptical of Gregg as a full-time closer but he saved 32 games last year in 36 opportunities. He has done his job this season despite only four saves so far. Doug Waechter and Matt Lindstrom also have strong numbers for the Florida pen although they have seen limited action.
Florida’s success in the bullpen may be a bit of a surprise but the success of Tampa Bay’s bullpen in the early season action is a complete shocker. In the 2007 season the Devil Rays didn’t just have the worst bullpen in baseball, rather they posted historically bad bullpen numbers. Last season Tampa Bay had a bullpen ERA of 6.16, and relievers took the loss in 34 games. Opponents hit .302 against Tampa Bay relievers and the unit allowed 77 home runs. Needless to say it was a major problem that held back a team that featured a lineup with a lot of potential and was starting to get some solid starting pitching.
Now just the Rays, the Tampa Bay bullpen has had an awakening in April with a 2.55 ERA and opposing hitters are hitting just .210. The numbers may not stay that strong all season, but Tampa Bay is unlikely to fall to the severe opposite end of the spectrum where they were last season. Relievers have a record of just 3-5 this season for Tampa Bay but there have been just two blown saves and a look at the standings shows that the Rays are as competitive this deep into the season as they have ever been.
Troy Percival was a risky but important signing for the Rays that brings some credibility to a bullpen that had shuffled through several different closing options in the past few seasons. So far in 2008 Percival has been as advertised, with perfect numbers, going five for five in save opportunities and allowing just two hits and zero runs in nine innings pitched. The Rays bullpen has been worked considerably less this season with Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine both pitching at least 30 innings as starters already this season. James Shields has been an all-star caliber pitcher and although Matt Garza has struggled so far, he can also become a solid starter by season’s end. A deeper and improved starting rotation has been a big plus for the Rays, especially with ace Scott Kazmir yet to pitch in 2008 but the rest of the bullpen has been equally important.
It may have seemed like a minor deal last season at the trade deadline but acquiring veteran reliever Dan Wheeler from Houston was a big score for Tampa Bay. Wheeler is 0-2 this season but he owns a 1.38 ERA and adds an established veteran presence to the bullpen. Gary Glover was an innings-eater for the Rays last season and his numbers have been outstanding so far in 2008 with a 1.69 ERA and former Colorado reliever Scott Dohmann has been a win vulture, already 2-0 this season after delivering solid numbers for the Rays last year. J.P. Howell has also been a reliable option so far in 2008 despite atrocious numbers last season. Having confidence in the closer and the bullpen can make a huge impact on the starting pitching and morale of the team so this could be the year the Rays break .500. Tampa was always a risky proposition last season even with Shields or Kazmir on the mound because the bullpen was so shaky but Rays are in a much better situation in 2008.
It would be foolish to expect both the Marlins and Rays to stay in contention all season long and to expect them to both lead their respective leagues in bullpen numbers but the early results are promising. Teams that had some of the best bullpen numbers last season were generally playoff teams or at least teams with winning records and it is an area of the team that can be changed dramatically in one year with just a few key improvements. Last year’s top two bullpen ERA teams were Boston and San Diego, both strong winning teams but this season they rank 28th, and 27th respectively. San Diego’s poor start in 2008 can be traced to the regression of the pen as they rank towards the bottom of baseball in relief ERA so far in April and Boston likely could have a much stronger record but instead they have fallen back to the pack in the tight AL East when the opportunity was there to build a cushion. Be sure to keep an eye on which teams are producing strong results in the bullpen, as it typically corresponds with teams that are showing profits as well.
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