Yet another week has come and gone. Almost a quarter of the way through the baseball season, bettors are beginning to uncover which teams are contenders and which are pretenders. Of course it’s not that clear cut. Clubs like Detroit, the New York Yankees and Milwaukee possess ingredients for a successful run but have thus far left the starting gate at a snails pace.
On what is usually a slow day in the majors, Monday brings with it an 11-game card. It’s a fresh week, so whether you’ve been racking in the cash or have started out slowly in the earnings department let’s hop on this money train with plenty of time to spare.
Note: With the cancellation of two games listed in this preview, stay tuned for updated starting pitchers.
Atlanta (T. Hudson) at Pittsburgh (P. Dumatrait) – 12:35 p.m. EDT - Game 2
This will be the first four-game series that Atlanta will complete this season (a planned four-game series against Colorado in April was cut short due to inclement weather). The Braves where rolling through the schedule on a six-game winning streak until the Pirates derailed that run on May 9, losing 3-2. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight times in the last 10 games mainly due to a pitching staff ranked second in the league with a 3.54 ERA and fourth in the majors with a 1.25 WHIP.
The Pirates are on a five-game winning streak after digging their way out of a 3-7 slump. Defense is the name of the game, with Pittsburgh holding San Francisco (not that hard as the Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in the league) and current opponent, Atlanta to an average of three runs per game during this victory stretch. Pitts’ lefty Phil Dumatrait (1-1, 3.86 ERA) will appear in only his third start of the season after being moved from the pen to the rotation. Dumatrait has been hammered by right-handed hitters for a .304 BAA with .852 OPS.
-- The Braved are 5-17 in their last 22 road games.
-- The ‘under’ is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings between these two clubs.
-- The Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter.
Florida (B. Badenhop) at Cincinnati (A. Harang) – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Who would have thought that the Marlins would be 22-14 and in first place in the NL East? A 12-9 record at home and 10-5 on the road, Florida is rolling along its schedule with six wins in a row. A good reason for this team’s success; starters Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.56) and Scott Olsen (4-1, 2.22 ERA) and relievers Renyel Pinto (0.73 ERA), Justin Miller (2.60) and Logan Kensing (2.70). This is a pitching staff that’s surprising in every way possible. The bats have been hot in the last six. The Marlins’ roster has been making contact for a .294 BA with 34 RBIs and seven long balls (Dan Uggla has three homers and Jorge Cantu added another two jacks over this six-day period).
The month of May has been unfriendly to the Reds. A 3-5 record in May coupled with a pitching staff giving up eight runs per game in those defeats is enough reason for the team to be sitting in last place in the NL Central. Cinci is 7-13 in its own division and are a weak 1-9 when trailing a contest heading into the seventh inning. Reds’ ace Aaron
Harang (1-5, 3.09) has been tossing efficient ball this season but receiving only 2.8 runs per game of support is a direct result to the 1-5 record. A .257 BA with 308 total hits isn’t the worst ranking stats in the league, but a .325 OBP doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities for placing runners in scoring position.
Most books have set the Marlins as $1.57 visiting underdogs, with a total sitting at nine.
-- At home, the Reds are batting a positive .331 versus lefties but are at rock bottom versus righties with a .216 BA.
-- The starting rotation for Cincinnati at home has been gassed, giving up a 5.23 ERA, while the pen has been shelled for a 6.46 ERA.
-- The Reds are 7-1 in Harangs’ last eight starts versus NL East teams.
-- The Marlins are a hot 13-3 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and the ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati.
Boston (C. Buchholz) at Minnesota (L. Hernandez) – 7:05 p.m. on ESPN
The Red Sox are +862 on the money line but bettors have suffered with a -295 loss on the run line. Monday games have seen Boston go 3-0 this year and a 2-0 record in Game 4’s. Right-handed starter Clay Buchholz (2-2, 4.50) is coming off his worst outing of the season. Buchholz was plastered for five earned runs on 10 hits in only four innings versus Detroit on May 7. Right-handed hitters are tattooing Buchholz for a .359 BA.
The Twins are defending a 12-7 home record which has helped this squad climb to the top of the AL Central for the time being (tied with the White Sox). A 7-3 run in the last 10 has been attributed to an effective .278 BA with 52 RBIs to boot. And there’s no leaving out the pitching staff, who’s responsible for holding opponents to just 2.7 runs per game in the last seven wins.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings in Minnesota, the Twins have gone 7-4, pulling in 5.5 runs per game. The ‘under’ has seen love with a 3-8 record in the same 11-game stretch.
Bodog.com has installed the Red Sox as $1.25 favorites, with a total set at 9 ½-runs.
-- Minnesota is 8-1 in its last nine home games.
-- Minnesota is 6-1 in its last seven home games versus a right-handed starter.
-- Minnesota is 4-0 in Livan Hernandez’s (5-1, 3.83) last four starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Hernandez went nine innings, giving up nine hits and one run in his last start (the Twins went on to bury the Chicago White Sox, 13-1)
-- Boston is 2-5 in its last 7 road games versus a right-handed starter.
-- Boston is 1-8 in its last nine games played on artificial turf.
St. Louis (A. Wainwright) at Milwaukee (D. Bush) – 8:05 p.m. EDT
The Brewers are 4-11 in their last 15 and have struggled to score 3.3 runs per game over this period. With only 14 quality starts and seven blown saves (closer Eric Gagne has blown five saves this season, resulting in an ineffective 6.89 ERA), Milwaukee is struggling to find chemistry on the mound. At least starting pitcher Ben Sheets (4-0, 2.53) has contributed as expected.
The Cardinals have been shaky in their last five games, producing only one win. Pitching has been the main weapon of this squad, with starters and relievers working for a league seventh best 3.71 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. St. Louis has been listed as an underdog in the last five, ranging from $1.20 all the way up to $1.63. Right-handed starter Adam Wainwright (3-1, 2.25) will get the start on Monday. Wainwright is ranked first in the NL with a 0.96 WHIP and fifth with a 2.25 ERA. In nine games versus Milwaukee over a three-year period, Wainwright has put together a 2.14 ERA with a BAA of .182.
The Cardinals have finally opened the books as a $1.20 favorite (first time as a favorite in the last six games). A total of 8 ½-runs has been set for this contest.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
