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Top Teams When Wagering
May 16, 2008
By Brad Young VegasInsider.com
T he baseball regular season is just a fourth of the way completed, and interleague action will take center stage this weekend. Even though there have been just around 40 games played in a 162-game schedule, there are many profitable trends forming. Today’s column is going to focus on the top teams through the first month and a half of the schedule, and which teams have been solid fade selections.
Surprisingly, the top two teams in baseball to wager on this season reside in Florida. Baseball is usually an afterthought in the Sunshine State once Spring Training wraps up in late March, but the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays currently reside in first place of their respective divisions.
Florida has won two World Series championships since entering the league in 1993, but has never won the National League East. The Marlins advanced to the postseason both times as a wildcard, and have a history of finishing way back in the standings. Florida endured its usual season last year by finishing fifth in the NL East, 18 games behind first-place Philadelphia.
However, Florida is currently atop the NL East standings heading into Wednesday’s action 1 ½ games ahead of the Phillies. More importantly, the Marlins have been kind to backers all year with a +1,065 money-line record. Being seven games over .500 has helped, but backing a Florida team that is routinely listed as an underdog has been a money-cashing proposition.
The Chicago Cubs have an identical record with Florida, but their money-line profit is just +347 because they have been favored in their games more than Florida. A great example of this can be pinpointed by checking out some recent games.
Florida hasn’t even been listed as a favorite since a May 6 home game against Milwaukee, resulting in a 3-0 victory as a $1.15 home ‘chalk.’ The Marlins have won since then as an ‘even’ money selection twice, +100, +115 and +120 underdogs. Even though first-place Florida as playing NL Central cellar-dweller Cincinnati, the Reds have been a $1.70, $1.65 and $1.40 home favorite the first three games of a four-game set.
The biggest surprise in baseball so far has been Tampa Bay, a franchise that has been the definition of a doormat. Since their inception in 1998, the Rays have finished last every year in the American League East except in 2004 when they finished fourth 30 ½ games behind the New York Yankees.
Tampa Bay is currently seven games above .500 and off to its best start in franchise history. This is also the first time ever that the Rays are in first place beyond the first week of the season.
The biggest stat concerning Tampa Bay is its +909 money-line record, second best in baseball. During its current six-game winning streak, the Rays have prevailed as a $1.25 and $1.10 underdog, while also winning as a home ‘pick’ and as a $1.10 favorite.
An interesting look at the money-line record involves the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are usually prohibitive favorites, but backing the pinstripes in every game this season will have set you back -785. New York is just two games under .500 and 4 ½ games out of first place, but have the fifth-worst record concerning the money line. Just this month alone, the Yankees have lost games when favored at -120, -130 and -140 twice.
However, it is another American League team that should be faded with the worst money-line record in baseball. Seattle has stumbled its way to a 16-26 record after Wednesday’s triumph over Texas as a $1.10 road underdog, 4-3. The Mariners improved their money-line record to -1408, which still keeps them in last behind Detroit (-1181) and San Diego (-1272).
Another interesting angle concerning the wagering aspect is how teams are doing when playing at home and on the road. There are just three National League teams that have winning road records, led by the Florida Marlins (11-7) ahead of Arizona (9-8) and Philadelphia (11-10). There are also three American League teams above .500 on the road, highlighted by Oakland (11-8) along with Los Angeles (12-9) and Cleveland (8-7).
Atlanta is an interesting team to focus on, armed with the best home record in baseball (14-4) while going a dismal 5-15 on the road. The Braves are just 3 ½ games off the pace in the NL East, but -426 concerning their money-line record.
Lastly, totals have also seen quite of trend early this season. Pittsburgh has the best ‘over’ record in baseball right now, seeing the ‘over’ go 14-5 on the road but just 10-9 at home. Other ‘over’ teams to wager on include Arizona (22-13), Florida (21-17), the New York Mets (20-16) and Texas Rangers (21-17).
The best team to back concerning the ‘under’ is the Toronto Blue Jays, going an incredibly profitable 17-5 on the road and 10-7 at home. Other ‘under’ teams include Atlanta (26-11), Milwaukee (24-14), San Diego (23-16), Baltimore (24-14), Chicago White Sox (21-16), Cleveland (22-15), Kansas City (24-12), the New York Yankees (26-12) and Oakland (22-13).
Brad Young can be reached at byoung@vegasinsider.com.
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