Yesterday’s tips and trends focused on clubs that have taken bettors to the woodshed for a financial beating. Although it’s only been a full day since that story was released, San Diego and San Francisco continued its losing ways on Monday, burning holes through the pockets of investors.
With the negative comes the positive so it's time to shift gears in anticipation for Wednesday's full lineup of Major League action. Can money leading clubs such as Boston, Tampa Bay and Florida get things done on this packed schedule, or can we look for “unremarkable” teams to make the doe?
Tampa Bay (27-19, +896) at Oakland (24-23, +302) – 3:35 p.m. EDT
Just when the Rays looked to be slowing down the pace in two straight losses in St. Louis over the weekend, a 7-6 victory over the Athletics on Monday put the brakes on that thought. While Tampa’s 26-19 record is just a partial look into this club’s success, being installed as the favorite nine times in the last 12 games is evidence coming right from the books themselves. To put this in perspective, the Rays were tagged as the favorite just 42 times out of 162 games last season!
The Athletics can’t be overlooked when discussing finance. The only problem that has begun turning bettors the other way is a 2-8 record in the last 10. This is the same club who closed out the month of April on an 8-4 run, while continuing that success to begin this month on a 5-2 victory jog. But things have changed, and a long nine-game road trip which began on May 9 has turned the tide of this battle. In their last seven games, Oakland starters Justin Duchscherer (3-3, 2.67 ERA), Greg Smith (2-3, 3.26) and reliever Alan Embree (4.22) have combined for a 6.16 ERA. But compute this ERA carefully as Embree himself has accounted for an 11.25 ERA all on his own.
There’s no sugar coating Tampa Bay’s 6-24 record in its last 30 games played in Oakland.
Probable Starters: TB (A. Sonnanstine) at OAK (D. Eveland)
Baltimore (24-20, +779) at N.Y. Yankees (20-25, -1237) - 7:05 p.m. EDT
There’s been a lot of stink made about the condition of the Yankees, but what about an Orioles’ team who’s up 6.41 units on the money line and 1.18 units on the run line?
Ok, so Baltimore sure doesn’t look to have the pieces set in place for a serious run to the top of the AL East, but we can’t overlook a 7-3 run in the last 10 which has been responsible for placing a total of $384 into backers’ pockets ($100 bet on all 10 games). The reason for this short burst of success comes from the improved effort by the pitching staff. In Baltimore’s last 16 games, starters and bullpen alike have combined for a 3.50 ERA, while giving up close to 3.4 runs per game. Relief slingers Matt Albers (2.15) and Jim Johnson (1.13) have held opposing lumber down for a combined eight holds during the month of May, and closer George Sherrill hasn’t recorded a blown save since May 7. Sherill has now worked for a total of 17 saves this season (tied for No. 1 in both leagues), with seven of those saves coming in the last 16 contests.
The Orioles may be 14-29 in their last 43 games played in Yankee Stadium but it’s a new season and the Bronx Bombers are in prime position to let the door open for an emerging clubhouse such as Baltimore.
The ‘over’ is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. Receiving mixed messages on a totals play in this contest is the Orioles 19-8 record on the ‘under’ in their last 27 road games. Baltimore is swinging for a non-effective .235 BA in 23 road games this season.
Probable Starters: BAL (G. Olson) at NYY (D. Rasner)
Arizona (28-17, +788) at Florida (25-19, +1016) - 7:10 p.m. EDT
Two of baseball’s top money earners will meet under the humid air in South Florida for the first time this season. Since traveling to Cincinnati on May 12 (losing 8-7 on that day), the Marlins have had a tough time maintaining the same intensity and consistency that many were praising this young club for possessing. In Florida's recent 1-5 slide, the pitching staff has been knocked for an unbalanced 5.44 ERA and an inflated 1.70 WHIP. Even though the bats are ringing for 5.3 runs per game in the last six, it’s been the pitching game unable to hold or protect leads. Total players take the ‘over’ into consideration as it’s been on a 7-2-1 tear. Eight of these last 10 games have had totals installed anywhere from nine to 9 ½-runs.
The Diamondbacks look to have turned a 3-7 slump (from May 2 to May 11) into a 180 degree success story. Since then, Arizona has dropped just cone contest do Detroit (3-2) during the interleague weekend. The offense has been firing on all cylinders (averaging 5.6 runs per game in the last five wins) and starters Brandon Webb (9-0, 2.56), Micah Owings (5-1, 3.81) and Dan Haren (5-2, 3.14) continue to blow the sox off batters this season. Even ‘ol veteran Randy Johnson has stepped up into the primetime spotlight for a 4-1 record with a 4.42 ERA. Not to harp on the Johnson resurrection, but the six-foot-10 hurler has now won four of his last five starts, giving up three runs per game while whiffing out 24 batters over the same stretch.
Probable Starters: ARI (B. Webb) at FLA (R. Nolasco)
Chicago Cubs (28-18, +485) at Houston (26-21, +911) - 8:05 p.m. EDT
The Astros are four games above .500, have been accountable for a +795 money line sum and have helped backers prosper on the run line, up 12.34 units (25-20 run line record). While Houston has been slinging for a 4.66 ERA, the bats have on fire at home with a .281 BA. Add a sixth best 24 homers with an .821 OPS (on-base plus slugging) and there’s no doubt that the Astros can out bang opponents with just the wood alone (at home).
The Cubs have made big strides in the month of May. Batting .286 with 91 runs and a second best .368 OBP (on-base percentage) have shown improvement across the board. Thus the reasoning for a 9-2 performance in Chicago’s last 11 games. During this victory lap, the Cubs have crossed home plate for 6.1 runs per game, while the pitching game has allowed a staunch 3.2 runs per game.
For head-to-head numbers, an 8-2 record on the ‘under’ in the last 10 has been a consistent trend to key on, while the ‘under’ is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Houston.
Probable Starters: CHC (S. Gallagher) at HOU (S. Chacon)
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
