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Three-Game Sets
 

All the action this weekend involves three-game series. The Cardinals are hosting the Phillies in National League action and then all 14 of the other series are in Interleague action.

I'll examine all 15 of these weekend sets in a quick rundown and point out any particular value to consider.

Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
This is the lone series this weekend that is not in Interleague action and, as such, it could get a little extra wagering attention from us. The Cardinals are now without Albert Pujols, the injured slugger, and although they won their first game without him 10-0 there could be tougher times up ahead as they now face a stronger team like the Phillies rather than a mediocre Reds team. The Phillies lost the first two games of their series at Florida but they previously had gone 12-2 in their last 14 games and averaged 7 runs per game. They absolutely could offer some spots of value in this weekend series. We like to take a look at good teams on the road (because it usually equates to line value) and the Phillies were 18-13 on the road before losing those first two games of the series at Florida. The Phillies also have had one of the top performing bullpens in the league so far this season.

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Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays

The Cubs are a popular team right now because they have the top record in all of baseball. However, be careful here! The Cubs are only 14-16 on the road and have not been hitting near as well on the road as they do at home. The Blue Jays are a respectable .500 team and could offers some “value spots” in this series.

San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians
The Padres are a miserable 10-20 on the road this season and their offense simply can’t be trusted. The Indians took a respectable 17-17 home record into Thursday night’s action and Cleveland’s offense perked up during a road trip to Texas. They had scored 63 runs in their last ten games through Wednesday. The Indians could indeed offer some value this weekend as the stronger offense prevails at Progressive Field.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
The Dodgers are just 13-20 on the road this season and they got drilled again, 9-0, on the Thursday. This team simply struggles to produce runs. Los Angeles has now been held to three runs or less in 13 of their last 20 games! Can their offense come alive at Comerica Park? We wouldn’t bank on it! Detroit’s overall record doesn’t impress but they’ve been much stronger at home recently. With Thursday’s win over the White Sox, the Tigers are now 11-6 in their last 17 home games and they’ve averaged six runs per game in those games. The Dodgers will be hard pressed to keep up as the absence of Rafael Furcal’s bat at the top of the order has really hurt this club!

Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles
Hate to keep harping on the home/road dichotomy angle in so many of these match-ups but, where it’s present in such a strong way it should not be ignored! The Pirates are just 12-19 on the road this season while the Orioles are a rock solid 17-11 at home. Also, heading into Thursday’s action Baltimore had averaged 5.5 runs per game so far this month. The Pirates have the worst road ERA (5.99) of any team in the majors!

Florida Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
Florida is a decent road club at just a game below .500 but the Rays are an amazing 24-10 at home this season! However, the Marlins are worth a look in this series. There will be line value with them on the road and Florida is fortunate enough to have a three game series with Tampa Bay and yet not have to fade either James Shields or Scott Kazmir! Florida had averaged about 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 games heading into Thursday’s action. This could be a key this weekend as the Rays have scored four runs or less in 10 of their last 13 games!

Texas Rangers at New York Mets
There could be some nice opportunities for some overs in this series. The Mets have gotten their offense back on track as they’ve averaged five runs per game in their last four games. As for the Rangers, their last dozen games have averaged over 15 runs per game and Texas has the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez have both been inconsistent so the over could be worth a look particularly in the first two games of this three game set.

Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds
Once again, home/road dichotomy gets a strong look here! Heading into Thursday’s action, these teams would be separated by 9.5 games in the standings if they were in the same division. Boston would be in front of Cincinnati by that margin. However, the Red Sox are a woeful 14-20 on the road while the Reds are an impressive 19-12 at home through Wednesday’s action. With the pitchers that Cincinnati has slated for this series, for them to take 2 of 3 would not surprise us and there certainly could be some line value with Cincy here.

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
The Twins are slumping badly right now while the Brewers are a solid 19-10 at home so far this season. As you long as the price isn’t too high you could find some good spots for a play on the Brewers in this series.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros
There could be a lot offense in this one. The Astros are one of the best hitting teams at home in the majors. Minute Maid Park has a reputation for offense and the Bronx Bombers coming to town shouldn’t hurt that reputation. The Yankees batting average on the road is ranked 5th in the AL and their slugging percentage on the road is ranked 4th in the AL. The Yankees will be happy to be out of a tough pitcher’s park (McAfee Coliseum). Note that the Yanks had just recently completed a stretch of scoring 100 runs in 16 games through Sunday. While the new week started out slow for the Yankees hitters they are likely to have a huge weekend at the plate in Houston! The Astros have scored 32 runs in the first six games of this homestand and we don’t foresee them slowing down against the trio of Yankees starting pitchers they are expected to see in this series.

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
Colorado is just 10-24 on the road this season and the White Sox are a solid 20-9 at home so far. However, the White Sox have now lost three straight while the Rockies offense is picking up the pace again with Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday back in the lineup. We’ll look to fade the masses here and possibly take a shot or two with the Rockies. Tread lightly with their poor road record but this team could be primed to start turning that around with their improving health!

Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Ugly match-up based on the way these two teams have been playing. Arizona did just finish taking two of three from the Mets but this team is just 8-15 their last 23 games. Of course they’ll be hosting a Royals team that, as usual, has also fallen on hard times. Kansas City is a ridiculous 5-19 their last 24 games. With the Royals bullpen in a funk, we may find some value with the over in a spot or two in this series but be careful because there are a couple of decent starting pitchers going in this series.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels
We sound like a broken record I know but how do you not mention the Braves road record here? Atlanta is a ridiculous 7-24 on the road this season while the Angels have one of the best overall records in baseball this season. The Angels could be prohibitive favorites throughout this series though because they have some big starting pitching edges the way the rotations fell for this one.

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners
The Nationals are just 2-8 their last ten while the Mariners are just 3-7 their last ten. Washington is one of the worst offenses in the National League while Seattle is one of the weakest offenses in the American League. Looks like the under could be the way to look in this series. This is especially true with, in our opinion, some decent arms going in this series. They may not be big names but there are some hurlers getting the ball in this series that have some good stuff in their repertoire of pitches. Helping them along will be facing some weak, struggling lineups!

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
This is another match-up of weak offenses. In terms of team batting average the Giants are near the bottom of the National League while the Athletics weak slugging percentage sinks them near the bottom of the American League in that category! We also feel the pitching match-ups in this series are conducive toward an under. Even though the Giants offense has been improving in recent weeks, they still are likely to struggle this weekend as they face three solid A’s starting pitchers. One has an ERA around 2.75 while the other two are both around a 3.75 ERA. The A’s offense, heading into Thursday’s action had scored four runs or less in 9 of their last 14 games. Looks like we should see some tight, low-scoring battles in this Bay Area Battle!

  
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Ed Meyer + 3203
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Scott Rickenbach + 1105
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Chip Chirimbes + 2275
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Tom Freese + 2429
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