Editor's Note: Don't forget to pick up Scott Rickenback's latest winners here!
All the action this weekend involves three-game series. The Rockies are hosting the Mets in National League action and then all 14 of the other series are in Interleague action.
I'll examine five of these weekend sets in a quick rundown and point out the particular value as to why I consider these to be the Fantastic Five to keep an eye on this weekend.
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Colorado is just 12-25 on the road this season but at home they are a respectable 19-17. The Rockies offense is picking up the pace again with Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday back in the lineup. This really makes a big difference for Colorado and especially at home. This is why, against a team like the Mets that generally gets some betting action, we should get some line value at home with the Rockies in this series. Keep an eye on this as the Mets are just 5-8 their last 13 and the Rockies are 11-4 their last 15. The Mets are still trying to deal with all the turmoil relating to Willie Randolph getting fired. We’d recommend looking at the Rockies to take two of three in this series.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins
With Arizona leading the NL West by 4.5 games and the Twins trailing in the AL Central by 4.5 games this is a bit of an "under the radar" spot for Minnesota and that means value for us. Everyone sees Arizona with their decent full season record and plus they remember what they did earlier this season when they got off to the strong start. However, this team is just 11-18 their last 29 games. The Diamondbacks are also just 15-19 on the road while the Twins are 22-16 at home. With Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn pitching the first two games of this series there is good value with the Twins. Even with Livan Hernandez going in Game Three note that he’s come up with some solid performances at home this season. Arizona’s offense is just not that impressive and the Twins can absolutely take two of three in this series. They’ve won five of six heading into this weekend series.
Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres
Detroit already got Fernando Rodney back in their bullpen. Now Joel Zumaya is coming back and, oh yeah by the way, the Tigers are 10-2 their last 12 games. Detroit is hot again and once they get past a tough match-up with Greg Maddux on Friday (winnable but tough), they could easily roll the rest of the series. The Tigers are simply hitting on all cylinders right now as their average margin of victory in their ten games has been 3.4 runs per win! In other words, they’re not just winning they’re blowing teams out and they now face a Padres club that is struggling once again as they are just 1-5 in their last six games and the five losses have come by an average margin of four runs per game! Again, Friday’s match-up is a little tough to call but the Tigers should take at least two of three in this series no matter what happens Friday.
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers roll into this series with some momentum as they just took three straight from the Reds to get back on track. As for the Indians, they just lost three straight to the Rockies and they come into Los Angeles in a slump. Facing some solid Dodgers pitching in a pitchers’ park is not likely to cure things for Cleveland and, in terms of pitching, the Indians starters aren’t as impressive as they might appear to be on the surface plus the Dodgers have a big bullpen edge in this match-up. As for the starters, Cliff Lee has not been impressive recently if you look at what he’s done since mid-May. CC Sabathia has been very inconsistent and Paul Byrd has also shown a tendency to get rocked on the road. This is why the Dodgers at home will offer some line value as their bats woke up on their recent road trip and they should take at least two out of three from the Tribe.
Florida Marlins at Oakland Athletics
Starting with a look at the A’s on the run line (-1.5 runs) on Friday night we will be searching for value in this series with the Athletics. Oakland will enjoy some big pitching edges in this match-up with Florida and the lines should be reasonable on Saturday and Sunday. Rich Harden over Mark Hendrickson is a big mis-match on Friday and then Dan Eveland and Justin Duchscherer have been simply phenomenal at home this season! By making use of the run line where necessary and the money line where reasonable, there are indeed some profit opportunities in this series. The Marlins are only 9-13 in their last 22 games and guys like Hendrickson and Ricky Nolasco simply can’t be trusted. Southpaw Andrew Miller has been a little tougher but he’s still shown his youth with inconsistency at times and being matched up with Duchscherer would mean he’d have to pitch a gem to win and we don’t see that happening on the road. The A’s should win this series and a sweep should not surprise. Again, keep in mind that you can get line value with the run line too where necessary (Friday’s game is a good example of this).
