There’s no doubting that this weekend will be chock full of action waiting for gamblers to cash in on the countless intrastate rivalries. Who wouldn’t want to crack some cold ones open with the buddies in preparation for the New York Yankees and Mets going head-to-head. Or maybe your West Coast blood is pumping for the Angels and Dodgers showdown.
Either way, there’s plenty of opportunity out there. Beginning with Friday’s opening three (or four) game series, let’s take a look at some highlighted ballgames which will put a cap on interleague play for 2008. Good luck and let's play ball!
Friday
N.Y. Mets (Pelfrey) at N.Y. Yankees (Giese) – 2:05 p.m. EDT
While not necessarily the beginning of a four-game weekend series, this afternoon meeting in Yankee Stadium is a result of a May 16 postponed contest. So what better way to schedule out the last few games of the regular season Subway Series then to have a 2:05 p.m. throw down in the Bronx (makeup game) followed up by an 8:10 p.m. contest at Shea (Game 1 of the weekend series)?
There’s no sugar coating the inept play of the Mets this season. Bettors are dealing with a club whose -1031 on the money line and -524 on the run line. Although 10-4 in their last 14 interleague games, the Mets have struggled in their last 10 with a .250 BA and a starting pitching staff accounting for a 4.76 ERA.
Getting the start for the Mets will be right-hander, Mike Pelfrey (4-6, 4.30 ERA). Pelfrey is coming off a win over Colorado which saw the second-year pro tossing only 5.2 innings (98 pitches), but giving up a skimp three hits with no runs. However, buyers beware because lefty hitters have tagged Pelfrey for a .350 BA, while road games have been worse with all sided batters tallying up a .357 BA.
The Yankees have already dropped two contests against the Mets back in May, and now a 9-11 record against their cross town rival has placed the Bombers under a microscope.
The Pinstripes have been hitting opposing pitchers for a .308 BA in the last 10, and players Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez have combined to produce a .366 BA with 30 RBIs in the month of June.
Yankees starter Dan Giese (1-2, 0.64) will make his second professional start of his career on Friday. Coming off a loss against Cincinnati (6-0), Giese worked 6.2 innings and was responsible for giving up three runs on four hits.
The Bronx Bombers are 9-3 in their last 12 and 8-3 in their last 11 interleague games.
In the last two games versus the Yanks, the Mets outscored their counterpart 18-6. The ‘over’ is 13-7 in their last 20 pairings together.
N.Y. Yankees (Ponson) at N.Y. Mets (Martinez) – 8:10 p.m. EDT
The double header will end in Flushing, New York when the Mets send out veteran starter Pedro Martinez (2-1, 6.57) to the hill.
Making only his second start of the season at home, Martinez has secured a 12-6 record with a 2.63 ERA in 28 starts at home over the last three years. Batters have struggled to make contact with a .210 BA against the right-hander in those same 28 starts. In Martinez’s last 10 trips to the mound, 2.6 runs sacrificed per game have translated into a five wins and two losses (with three no decisions).
What’s sure to make front page headlines following the game is Yankees' newly acquired starter Sidney Ponson (4-1, 3.88). Ponson is fresh from leaving Texas and the Pinstripes have been desperate to fill the large shoes of Chien-Ming Wang after his departure with a mid-foot sprain and a partial tear in his right foot on June 15.
The Yankees’ Ponson has been a dream for total players. Seven straight ‘over’ games are a result of the righty giving up 4.3 runs per game, while his ex-Texas club tagged on 8.9 runs per game. Combine the run support and Ponson’s own shaky performance and the results are games averaging a combined score of 15.7 runs per game in those last seven mentioned.
The Yankees are 4-5 in their last nine played in Shea Stadium.
Saturday
Arizona (Webb) at Florida (Miller) – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Even after going 12-23 in their last 35, the Diamondbacks continue to hang onto first place in the NL West (guess it says a lot about the division).
Whichever direction Arizona is traveling in you can be sure that the talk on Saturday will focus on ace Brandon Webb and the recent troubles he’s been involved in. Webb has been shell shocked for a total of 12 runs off 17 hits in the last two outings. To make this even clearer, the five-year vet has given up an average of 3.6 runs per game (2.9 of them earned) in his last 10.
The Diamondbacks are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.
Florida is 22-17 at home this season but has experienced a hard time at the plate. The offense has been bogged down by swinging for an underachieving .246 BA at home, while a .256 BA overall ranks the Marlins 21st worst in the league.
Southpaw starter Andrew Miller (5-6, 5.07) has been hot and cold as of late. In his last six starts, Miller has gone 1-3 (even with the offense giving him 5.1 runs of support per start), giving up three runs per game. Two years in the league has netted the left-hander a 3-3 record with an inflated 6.45 ERA.
The good news which blankets the batting woes is Florida’s +1030 money line profit and a run line record of 45-32 equating to +9.00 units.
The D-Backs are 5-14 in their last 19 meetings in Florida.
L.A. Angles (Weaver) at L.A. Dodgers (Billingsley) – 10:10 p.m. EDT
The intrastate rivalry continues throughout the MLB when the Angels shift venues and head out to Dodger town.
The Halos enter Saturday evening’s contest with an explosive 9-2 record in their last 11 meetings with the Dodgers. Stringing up five wins in a row before dropping a 5-4 contests in Washington has put a current tally of +11.57 units of profit on the board.
With Angels’ slinger Jered Weaver (7-7, 4.56) taking the mound there’s several stats that make his start attractive. His last win netted bettors a hefty +163 pay out (gave up four hits and one run in a 3-2 road victory over Philadelphia last Sunday) and in the Angels last win over the Dodgers (10-2) on May 18, Weaver again came through with a solid outing. His five hits allowed and two runs sacrificed were plenty of defensive support needed for the Halos offensive barrage.
And take a look at the ‘under’ which has gone 12-6-2 in the last 20 head-to-head meetings between these two clubs.
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| Howie Kendrick and the Angels are 26-12 with a +1563 money line profit on the road. (Getty Images) |
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Complimenting this total’s play is the Dodgers 6-3 ‘under’ record in their last nine with a total score averaging 8.8 runs per game in the last 10 (combined score).
The Dodgers have been a money pit with a money line deficit of -9.32 units, while the run line loss has been substantial at -16.49 units.
June has been especially damaging to the Dodgers’ offense. The bats have been consistently falling off the charts since the season began, but this month has now seen L.A. swinging for a .246 BA. This is a drop of 32 points since April (.278 in April).
The Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley (6-7, 3.64) is 4-2 in his last eight starts.
Sunday
Cubs (Marshall) at White Sox (Buehrle) – 8:05 p.m. EDT on ESPN
The final meeting between these two heated cross town rivals will bring with it a hot ‘under’ trend of 7-1 in the last eight meetings in U.S. Cellular Field.
Dominant over the White Sox, the Cubs have compiled a 9-1 record in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Even though the Sox are a blistering 20-6 in their last 26 home games, the Cubbies offset this trend with a monumental 20-8 record in their last 28 overall games.
Statistically speaking, both clubs have been fairly close (of not offsetting) in the offensive and defensive departments. The Cubs are hitting .295 with both the rotation and pen hurling a 4.03 ERA, while the “South Siders” have topped out with a .299 BA and a team ERA of 4.08.
Just be wary of Cubs’ starter Sean Marshall (0-1, 5.40). The southpaw slinger will see only his second start of the season on Sunday, while a career record of 13-18 in 44 total starts has been far from spectacular. Marshall, who’s been optioned and recalled a total of four times this season, has spent most of his time in relief this year. His first and last start on Jun. 24 saw the lefty go a short 4.2 innings after giving up seven hits and four runs.
White Sox hurler Mark Buehrle (5-6, 4.04) will take the hill for his 17th start of the season. Buehrle is 3-0 in his last four starts, throwing a total of 32 innings. Only five runs have been attached to the veteran southpaw over the same four starts.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.