To add some excitement to the usual hardball tip sheets, we’re going to throw in some predictions at the end of each breakdown. It’s that time of the year when baseball is filling the void for a slow summer in sports.
Here’s what Wednesday will bring to your tube, so study up and build that seasonal bankroll.
Detroit (Bonine) at Minnesota (Blackburn) – 1:10 p.m. EDT
This is a dangerous time for teams in the AL Central. The Tigers seem to be turning that hairpin corner by finishing June with a 19-8 record and going 18-4 in their last 22. Detroit has been blistering at the plate with a .329 BA and has outscored its opponents 5.2 runs per game versus 4.5 in the last 10.
First year major league slinger Eddie Bonine (2-0, 3.98 ERA) is scheduled to take pitching duties on Wednesday. His first start on Jun. 14 yielded a win even after giving up nine hits and six runs in only 5.1 innings, but he's since been unstoppable. In Bonine’s last two outings, a low three runs on 11 hits have been direct results to a 1-0 record.
The Twins have been a cash cow with the second best money line profit in the AL and third best in both leagues at +1239.
A 10-game winning streak which ended on Jun. 28 only helped validate that Minnesota is for real. Players like starting pitching Kevin Slowey (5-6, 3.47), catcher Joe Mauer (.341 BA with 13 RBIs in June) and left fielder Delmon Young (.321 BA with 13 RBIs) are just the tip of the ice burg in the sense of production.
The key for a Minnesota win will be to get lefty hitters Mauer, Alexi Casilla and Jason Kubel to jump on the Tigers’ pitcher Bonine early on. Southpaw swingers have done damage against Bonine with a .281 BA and an off the charts .917 OPS.
Pick: This contest goes to Minnesota on the basis of the lack of experience for Detroit’s Bonine and the Twins top notch offensive numbers at home (seventh best 214 runs with a .278 BA).
Kansas City (Meche) at Baltimore (Cabrera) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Where did Kansas City come from all of a sudden? Entering mid-June on a mission, the Royals finished off the month with a 12-3 record in its last 15. While the starting pitching hasn’t been dominant by any means – the five starters are averaging an ERA of 4.15 – the bats have been able to come alive.
Kansas City’s .275 BA with 140 runs in June eclipsed its .260 BA with 95 runs in April and .258 BA with 101 runs in May. The main contributors to this spike in offensive numbers lies with players like David DeJesus (.361 BA, 19 RBIs in June), Jose Guillen (.345 BA, 25 RBIs) and Mike Aviles (.330 BA, 15 RBIs).
The Royals will entrust seven-year veteran starter Gil Meche with the job of earning the road win in Baltimore. Meche has been on fire with a 3-0 record, while surrendering six runs in his last three starts. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA on the road this season, but a .240 BAA is proof that the offensive supporting him hasn’t been up to par (3.6 runs of support per start).
For the Orioles, unpredictable play has marred the franchise throughout the season. Baltimore is sitting above Toronto in the AL East by just 1 ½-games (as of Tuesday afternoon), is batting a below sea level .258 and is amongst the lowest scoring teams in the league at home with 168 runs registered.
A 22-13 home record is not to be overlooked and a 6-3 record in June reflects Baltimore’s overall success in its own ballpark.
It should be noted that Orioles right-handed starter, Daniel Cabrera (5-4, 4.53) is winless since May 20 and has since fallen ill to giving up 4.1 runs per game (in his last seven games). However, Cabrera is 2-0 at home, but a 5.25 ERA with a .279 BAA hasn’t been the best of outings.
Pick: While it may be a long shot for Kansas City to waltz into Baltimore with a 19-24 road record, things have been picking up for a club otherwise void of any heavy hitting moments this season. Seven ‘over’ games in their last 10 has also demonstrated a pick up on the offensive side of the ball and books aren’t taking any chances by installing the Royals as favorites nine times in the last 11 games. Kansas City should be considered a sharp play come Wednesday.
Milwaukee (McClung) at Arizona (Owings) – 9:40 p.m. EDT
Let’s take a stab at what’s sure to be an underdog pick on the card (odds haven’t been released yet as of Tuesday afternoon).
The Brewers are in a holding pattern, neither exploding onto the scene nor losing enough to sink them to the bottom of the division, but a 4-1 record versus Arizona this year is just one reason to back the visiting team here.
In the four games against the D-Backs, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff has blown by batters for a 2.57 ERA with 7.97 strikeouts per nine innings. As for the offense, a .281 BA with 6.4 runs per game scored against Arizona has been in stark contrast to Milwaukee’s .251 BA with 4.5 runs per game scored in 81 games played thus far.
And then there’s the slumping Micah Owings (6-7, 5.18).
Arizona’s right-hander may have started the season like a house on fire (going 4-0 in his first four starts), but has since slid down one heck of a slippery slope. Owings is 0-5 in his last six starts, has averaged an unbelievable 4.7 innings of work (in those six starts) and is close to giving up almost five runs per game. His numbers at home and on the road have been too close to deem serviceable when handicapping this contest.
What could dictate the result of this contest is a gluteus injury that Owings has been trying to overcome. Most reports indicate that he’ll make the start on Wednesday but just keep this in mind.
Pick: With Arizona’s problems in Owings starts combined with a decrepit offense, I’m going with the Brewers on this one. We’ll wait to see what the early value is but early thinking has a backing on Milwaukee come Wednesday night.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
