Seven games in the NL will trump a small, four-game card in the AL but that doesn’t mean the action won’t be thick in both leagues. Philadelphia is the only team playing on Thursday with a winning road record (23-21), and that’s where we’ll begin on the daily tip sheet.
Philadelphia (Hamels) at Atlanta (Jurrjens) – 7:00 p.m. EDT
As mentioned, the Phillies will be the only club playing with a winning road record on Thursday, and the numbers may surprise you.
Philly is throwing the bat around for a .259 BA on the road, which may seem underachieving to say the least. But with the league averaging a .253 BA on the road, and more specifically the NL swinging for a .252 BA, this club is just above average on the season.
Where the Phillies excel in is taking advantage of men on base. Philadelphia has logged in a league second best 226 runs on the road and an on base percentage of .338 ranks the organization third best in both leagues. Even more telling is the organization's 298 runs with men in scoring position (seventh best).
However, in its last seven games on the road, Philly has gone 3-4, while whiffing at the plate for a .227 BA (three games where the club has hit under .200 and only two games recorded when hitting .300 or above).
Atlanta will send out second-year starting sensation Jair Jurrjens (8-3, 2.94 ERA) whose in search of his ninth win of the season. Jurrjens is 7-1 in his last 13 starts and is 10-5 on the ‘under’ in 15 appearances on the mound in ’08.
Philadelphia is now 8-1 in its last nine pairing with Atlanta, while the ‘under’ is 6-3. Most books have set an average total of 9 ½-runs in the last nine.
More support on the total is Atlanta’s 7-3 record on the ‘under’ in its last 10.
The Phillies will put the game in the hands of reliable slinger Cole Hamels (8-5, 3.38). Hamels is 5-2 in his last 10 starts and has sacrificed 2.8 runs per game.
Chicago (Gallagher) at San Francisco (Lincecum) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
Are the Cubs missing third baseman Aramis Ramirez or what (Ramirez is on family leave for at least three days)? There’s no hiding the fact that with or without Ramirez the club was still able to drop four games in a row before snapping that streak on Jun. 30 (in a win over San Francisco, 9-2).
In its last 14 games, Chicago has gone on to produce a decent 4.7 runs per game, but the real problem has come during losses. In the club’s last nine defeats an average of 3.1 runs per game has been the end result. And then there’s the Cubs’ 177 runs produced on the road, which ranks the team 17th in both leagues.
Invest some time in looking at the total which has seen Chicago go 10-5 on the ‘over’ in the last 15.
Then there’s Giants' ace starter Tim Lincecum (9-1, 2.38), who’s not only involved in a ground breaking second-year go around but is also receiving an incredible 5.1 runs of support per start. This is extra special for the right-hander due to the fact that San Francisco is struggling at the plate for a weak .260 BA (ranked 15th) and has brought in a 28th worst four runs per game.
The runs support for Lincecum has also translated into a 7-3 record on the ‘over’ this season. The second-year hurler out of Washington has been a machine on the mound, averaging 104 pitches per start. Lincecum has witnessed just one loss this year in a 3-2 loss against Colorado on Apr. 29.
The Cubs are just 1-7 in their last eight road games, while the Giants are 5-16 in their last 21 home contests.
Both teams have been successful in Game 4 of a series with Chicago building up 3-0 record and San Francisco going 2-1.
Boston (Lester) at N.Y. Yankees (Pettitte) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
There’s no doubt that the explosive play coming out of the Tampa Bay organization has reduced the importance of the Yankees-Red Sox feud, but old habits die hard.
Boston has dropped four games in a row and the prolific offense that has been displayed looks to be taking a backseat in recent days. More specifically, the Sox have averaged just 4.2 runs per game in their last 10 and are batting 15 points below their seasonal average of .279.
Starter Jon Lester (6-3, 3.48) will take control of pitching duties for Boston in Game 1, but coming off a six run pounding against Houston will have the southpaw on his heels for a rebound performance. Before the blowout in the Lone Star State, Lester was giving up just 1.8 runs per game in his last eight starts.
It was in June that New York posted a .282 BA, averaging close to five runs per game, while harnessing a .358 OBP. How times have changed in just a few day. The Pinstripes are now struggling to make contact in the last seven games for a .249 BA. A 2-4 outing in its last six has at given total players something to smile about. With the lack of offensive cohesion, New York has chalked up five straight ‘under’ games, ranging anywhere from totals at 7 ½ to 10 runs.
The ‘under’ is 11-3 in Andy Pettitte’s (9-5, 3.98) last 14 home starts. New York starter Pettitte is 4-0 in his last four starts and has given opponents a low three runs to work with.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
