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Thursday's Tip Sheet
July 24, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
T here are only seven games on Thursday’s abbreviated MLB card. The Mets and Phillies will wrap up their three-game series at Shea Stadium, while Tampa Bay will go back on the road to take on cellar-dwelling Kansas City.
Also, St. Louis and Milwaukee will square off as both teams try to keep pace with the Cubs, who open a series at Wrigley Field against Florida. Bettors should keep in mind that three games, including the Phillies-Mets' rubber game for sole possession of first place in the National League East, will take place in the afternoon.
**Marlins at Cubs**
--Florida (53-48, +1,419) lost last night's rubber game of a home series against Atlanta by a 9-4 score. The defeat, coupled with the Mets' 6-3 win over Philadelphia, left the Marlins one game back of the NL East's co-leaders. Meanwhile, Chicago (59-42, +965) maintained a one-game advantage over the Brewers in the NL Central by besting Arizona 10-6 last night.
--Florida LHP Scott Olsen (6-4, 3.84) is 2-1 with a 4.93 ERA in eight road assignments this season. The young southpaw is 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA in four lifetime starts against the Cubs.
--Carlos Zambrano (10-4, 2.98) owns a 3-1 record and 2.54 ERA in seven career starts against the Marlins. The veteran right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 10 starts at home this year.
--Most books are listing the Cubs as minus 190 favorites. As always, there are no overnight odds for the total or run-line wagers due to uncertain wind conditions.
--The ‘over’ is an MLB-best 63-38 overall for the Marlins, 33-15 in their road games.
--The ‘over’ is 54-48 overall for the Cubs, 27-23 in their home games.
**Rays at Royals**
--After dropping seven in a row prior to the All-Star break, Tampa Bay (59-41, +1,383) returned home and won four of six games, including Wednesday’s 4-3 win over Oakland. The Rays are back in first place, but they are just one-half game ahead of the Red Sox and 3 1/2 games in front of the hard-charging Yankees.
--Kansas City (45-57, -388) has lost three straight after falling at home to Detroit by a 7-1 count in Wednesday’s pick ‘em affair. The Royals are joined in the AL Central cellar by Cleveland with both teams trailing division-leading Chicago by 12 ½ games.
--Tampa Bay RHP Matt Garza (8-5, 3.68) has had tough luck against KC. In fact, Garza is 0-3 despite a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Royals. The Fresno State product is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in eight road assignments this season.
--Gil Meche (7-9, 4.55) is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine lifetime starts against Tampa Bay. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 5.25 in 10 home assignments this year.
--Most spots are listing the Rays as minus 115 favorites with a total of 8 1/2 flat (minus 110 either way).
--KC is 22-27 at home, while Tampa Bay is 19-25 on the road.
--The ‘under’ is 56-47 overall for the Rays, but the ‘over’ is 25-22 in their road games.
--The ‘over’ is 54-51 overall for the Royals, but they have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 27-23 clip in their home outings.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Per LVSC rules, all bets for Wednesday's Baltimore-Toronto game were refunded because the score was tied at 1-1 at the end of the fifth inning. The Blue Jays had taken a 2-1 lead in the top of the sixth when the game was delayed and eventually suspended due to rain.
--Just when Atlanta appeared to be on the verge of getting healthy, Tim Hudson and Chipper Jones left Wednesday's win over the Fish. Hudson left with tightness in his throwing elbow after pitching six scoreless innings. Jones, who is hitting an MLB-best .369, left in the fourth inning after he apparently strained his hamstring. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Braves GM Frank Wren said Jones' injury was not serious. Atlanta is off Thursday before playing a three-game set at Philadelphia.
--San Diego RHP Greg Maddux is winless in 14 consecutive starts.
--Milwaukee RHP Ben Sheets is 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA in 24 career starts against St. Louis.
--Washington RHP Tim Redding is the majors’ second-best money pitcher. The Nationals are 15-6 with a money total of plus 1,226 in his 21 starts. Redding is a plus 130 underdog Thursday at San Francisco, but gamblers who believe in career numbers will be shying away from a play on the Nats. That’s because Redding is 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA in five lifetime starts against the Giants.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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