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Brewers look dangerous
August 24, 2008
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
T he Brewers have rebounded from the ugly four-game series in Milwaukee against the Cubs to deliver five straight wins heading into Monday’s series finale with Washington. Although the Cubs are still heavy favorites in the National League and still hold the lead in the NL Central, the Brewers may have a team that is better suited for a World Series run, as odd as that sounds.
Much is made of the disappointing history for the Cubs, without a World Series title in 100 years, but the Brewers have delivered arguably more frustrating results in their short history. Since the Brewers last made the postseason in 1982, the Cubs have made the playoffs five times.
Although it has been a long while, the Cubs do have two World Series titles to their name. Until last season the Brewers had not had a winning record since 1992 and the history of poor management and players that went to have great success after leaving Milwaukee is considerable.
This year feels much different for the Brewers. Although the team faded in September last year, the pennant-chase experience should pay dividends this season. The schedule also sets up well for Milwaukee to finish in playoff position. Only 15 of the remaining 44 games are against winning teams and half of the remaining games will be played at Miller Park. 16 of the final 26 games in September will be at home and the Brewers have a more favorable finish than the Cubs.
Chicago must play 16 of the final 22 on the road and they must play quality teams in the final two weeks with the Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, and a second series with the Brewers lined up for the final 13 games. The Brewers are in good shape currently holding the Wild Card lead by three games and still within reach for the division title so they will control their fate for making a historic playoff appearance.
The Cardinals, Mets, and Marlins will all be aiming at the Brewers so nothing is assured but should Milwaukee make the playoffs they have to be considered serious threats with high quality starting pitching. Taking a chance adding C.C. Sabathia has proved to be one of the great mid-season deals as the lefthander has produced incredible results. Sabathia is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA and he has four complete games and two shutouts. Should Brandon Webb or some of the other Cy Young candidates falter we could see serious arguments for Sabathia for the award should continue at this clip, as absurd as that sounds given his limited time in the league.
Ben Sheets no longer has to face the pressure of being the #1 starter and he has pitched remarkably well and stayed healthy this season giving Milwaukee arguably the best 1-2 combination in baseball. Manny Parra has dropped off a bit in the last few weeks but he still provides a very solid #3 option and gives the Brewers two lefties in the rotation. Jeff Suppan came up big for the Cardinals in the postseason and although he has been inconsistent he could prove to be a great veteran to have in big games.
Chicago and Arizona would also both have quality starting pitching options in a playoff series among NL contenders but the 1-2 for the Brewers looks much stronger and the Brewers may have the edge in rotation depth as well. Milwaukee’s bullpen has endured some trouble spots this season but no team that will be in the NL playoffs can feel perfectly comfortable with relief pitching. Philadelphia has the best overall numbers but Brad Lidge has had a few recent shaky outings. The Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs all have primary closers on the DL, and Arizona and St. Louis have had bullpen problems just as bad as Milwaukee has dealt with. Expect Milwaukee’s bullpen numbers to improve in the next few weeks with the extra rest that adding Sabathia has brought the relievers.
There is little argument that the Cubs have the superior lineup with a .280 team average but the numbers are not good away from Wrigley Field. The Cubs are hitting just .259 on the road and no regular has a batting average above .300 on the road while several key hitters have terrible road numbers including Aramis Ramirez hitting .217 and Kosuke Fukodome hitting .229. Milwaukee does not experience such dramatic drops in batting average on the road and several key players including Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy have posted better numbers away from home giving Milwaukee better balance.
Only four teams in baseball have winning road records on the season and the Brewers are one of those teams. Milwaukee has also completed four more road games than Chicago and the Cubs will face a road heavy finish down the stretch as the pressure and national attention build. Based on the four game series in Milwaukee that Chicago swept, the Cubs remain the team to beat in the NL but Chicago was a post-season flop last season being swept in three games. Chicago will likely be the favorites heading into the playoffs but should Milwaukee make the postseason they could be the more dangerous team.
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