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As improbable as it seemed a month ago, the Houston Astros are going to be serious contenders in the National League Wild Card race. Houston has moved to 79-67 and sits just four games behind Milwaukee for the Wild Card lead. Given the way that the Brewers have been slumping and the schedule ahead for Houston, the Astros could find themselves in the postseason.
The Chicago Cubs will still control the fate of the division with a substantial lead but Houston opens up a three game home series with Chicago this weekend. Houston then plays six less than intimidating games for the final road trip, playing at Florida and at Pittsburgh. The final week of the season could provide the Astros the opportunity they need with six home games against Cincinnati and Atlanta.
It is unlikely that the Cubs could fall behind the Astros given the current eight and half game lead but Chicago is playing poorly and faces the toughest schedule ahead of any of the contenders. The Cubs go to Houston and then host Milwaukee and St. Louis for six games before closing on the road with four games against the Mets and three more with the Brewers.
The Brewers will have a tough week ahead with the next ten games on the road. Milwaukee is in Philadelphia for four games then plays at Wrigley Field for three before three in Cincinnati. The final six are at home for Milwaukee with the Pirates and the Cubs. St. Louis also remains in the mix and the Cardinals have a manageable schedule although the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mixed in between a heavy dose of the Reds and Pirates.
New York and Philadelphia will be fighting for the NL East title but the Wild Card will be within reach for the team that does not win the division. The Phillies have a huge series with Milwaukee this weekend and then close with non-playoff contenders, playing Atlanta for six games and Florida and Washington for three each. The Mets play the Braves six times in the next ten games and also have a four-game series at Washington. The final seven games features the four-game set with the Cubs and three games with the Marlins.
The Cubs have by far the toughest remaining schedule though they have the biggest cushion to work with. Milwaukee also has a difficult road ahead and the opportunity will be there for the Astros, particularly if the games between the Cubs and Brewers end up one-sided with one team pulling away.
Houston is playing as well as any team in baseball, winning at a 74 percent clip with a 32-11 record since late July. The Astros could cause problems for the Cubs this weekend with a 9-6 record on the season and facing Cincinnati down the stretch could also be a positive as Houston is 10-2 against the Reds this year.
Offense has been the key with Houston scoring 5.3 runs per game. The team does not own an overwhelmingly batting average but they are among the NL leaders in stolen bases and the Astros also have committed the fewest errors in baseball. Houston’s pitching has been fairly average this season but the rotation has improved considerably with Roy Oswalt returning to form and the addition of Randy Wolf has been positive. The amazing thing is that the Astros have made much of this late season push with Carlos Lee on the DL. Despite the incredible stretch of winning there are some concerns as Houston must also now play with Ty Wiggington on the shelf for about a week and Wandy Rodriguez missing his next start.
As the Colorado Rockies proved last season, momentum can be a dangerous thing and Houston as a very good chance to find a way into the playoffs given the schedule ahead. If you are a Cubs or Brewers fan, expect a tense couple of weeks ahead. Both teams appeared to be playoff locks a few weeks ago but Chicago is 2-8 in the last ten games and Milwaukee is just 3-7 in the last ten. Both teams will face tougher schedules ahead and they will play each other six times, meaning the Astros will gain ground on either or both of them if they stay hot. Get ready for some drama as both Milwaukee and Chicago have a history of miserably painful endings to seasons and Houston will be the team most likely to benefit if one of those teams collapses.
