It took 11 ½ innings until the Dodgers’ bullpen would be responsible with giving up at least one run. However, the end of that streak served as a brutal letdown with L.A. tossing Game 4 out the window in the top of the eighth inning.
With the Dodgers up 5-3, Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard started the eighth off with a single. L.A. manager Joe Torre signaled for right-handed reliever Cory Wade, a mistake still reverberating throughout Chavez Ravine. It was Philly center fielder Shane Victorino that golfed a first-pitch curveball over the fence in right field. The Dodgers’ slinger finalized the evening by grooving a fastball down the center of the plate with a 3-1 count to the Phillies' pinch hitter, Matt Stairs, who went deep to propel the Phillies to victory. Brad Lidge worked out of a ninth-inning jam for the save.
Game 5 is slated to begin at 8:22 p.m. EDT with Bodog.com initially installing the Phillies as $1.20 visiting favorites (best $120 to make $100). A total of 7 ½-runs is currently sitting on the boards at most books. Sixty-percent of the betting public seems to be laying its hard earned dollars down on L.A. as of Tuesday evening.
So now the Dodgers will send out starter Chad Billingsley for the second time in this series after coming off of four days of rest (9-5, 3.33 ERA when returning after those four days). The second-year right-hander is coming off a 2.1 inning shellacking in Game 2, coughing up eight hits and eight runs on only 59 pitches. The main problem that Billingsley faces are Philadelphia left-handed hitters, Howard, Chase Utley and switch hitter Jimmy Rollins. On the season, L.A.’s No. 2 starter has been tagged for a .274 BAA versus righties struggling with a .225 BA.
Concern must be centered on a pitching staff that went from throwing the ball for a 3.33 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP during the regular season to registering, a 2.00 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 8.00 strikeouts per nine in the NLDS to falling on its face for a 1-3 record with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 34 innings during this championship series.
The Dodgers didn’t have a problem showing up at the plate on Monday night, with 11 hits, eight walks and five runs evidence of adequate at bats. Then again, L.A. did leave 22 men on base. The importance of this stat can be seen in a sample of the Dodgers’ last 10 losses which has the team averaging 14.4 LOB (left on base). In only one of those defeats did L.A. log in just under 10 LOBs, with seven of the losses witnessing at least 13 LOBs or more.
Philadelphia will send out two-game postseason winning starter Cole Hamels to the mound in hopes of maintaining that 1.20 ERA and a batting deprived 0.73 WHIP (playoff stats). Hamels has blown away the competition with 17 strikeouts, only three walks issued and a BAA of .157. His last win over the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS was a solid outing, protecting the plate for six hits with two runs on a 105 pitch count.
On a 20-7 run in their last 27 games, look for the Phillies’ Pat Burrell (.308, six RBIs in the postseason), Utley (.286, five RBIs) and, the star in the postseason, Victorino (.267, 11 RBIs) to help put this best-of-seven series to rest.
L.A. has bounced back nicely in games past, going 9-2 in its last 11 following a defeat but overall, Philadelphia is a suffocating 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. And take note that with the odd day off, the Phillies are 12-3 in their last 15 games following a day of rest. The Dodgers are a cold 1-10 in their last 11 versus National League East opponents.
Although we’re looking a little ahead, if the series shifts back to Philadelphia the Dodgers are slated to start Hirkoi Kuroda in Game 6 and Derek Lowe in Game 7 if necessary. Countering for the Phillies would be starter Brett Myers in Game 6 and Jamie Moyer in the final contest (of course all hypothetical at this point).
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
