Tampa Bay’s 13-4 win in the all important Game 4 on Tuesday showcased a growing offensive trend. It was during the regular season that the Rays ranked 14th in the majors with 4.8 run per game scored and 21st with a sluggish .260 batting average. How the bats have awakened in October.
Led by Carlos Pena, Willy Aybar and Carl Crawford, Tampa has exploded inside the batters box. The Rays’ offense has scored a total of 49 runs in six wins throughout the postseason. The club has outscored both the White Sox and Red Sox 8.2 runs per game versus 3.5 (in those six total victories). Tampa’s B.J. Upton has led the pack with 10 RBIs, last logging in a game without a hit on Oct. 2, while Evan Longoria has added nine of his own RBIs.
And it wasn’t that long ago that the Rays dropped seven-straight in Boston, getting outscored by a lopsided 48-16 figure. Tampa’s starting rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir and Edwin Jackson were pulverized for a 6.21 ERA in a total of 16 starts during the regular season, while closer Troy Percival put an exclamation point on pitching problem with a 10.13 ERA in four outings.
But those numbers are behind the club heading into Game 5 of the ALCS and with good reason. Tampa manager Joe Maddon has officially called upon the pitching duties of Kazmir instead of slated starter Shields. His last outing in Game 2 against Boston was of some concern. In only 4.1 innings, Kazmir tossed a high, 98 pitches, allowing the Red Sox to tag on five runs on six hits. The real problem stemmed from a total of three home runs launched out of Tropicana Field with the four-year southpaw responsible for those bombs allowed.
So, who comes to the rescue for Boston on Thursday night?
Starting slinger, Daisuke Matsuzka will take mound duties for the Red Sox and there are good numbers accompanying his work. Those numerical digits kept on the books include a 2-0 record in four starts (both regular season and postseason combined against Tampa) and a 1.50 ERA, all while dialing in .228 BAA. Dice-K has racked up 26 strikeouts (6.5 Ks per start) versus the Rays in ’08, allowing just one long ball in those four starts.
Not an overwhelming disparity but Matsuzaka has been more effective on the road with a 9-0 record and a 2.37 ERA versus his 9-3 performance with a 3.34 ERA at home.
The Rays might be 13-46 in the last 59 meetings in Boston but we’re looking at a club that’s completely distanced itself from the older image of a losing entity. Some hot commodities capable of sending author Steven King back into his novel without watching the happenings on the field include the fire that Tampa third baseman, Aybar has executed at the plate. In the last two wins, Aybar is six-for-nine with five RBIs (all five RBIs were produced in Game 4). This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as you would think given Aybar’s .414 BA with five runs produced in 29 at bats in Boston this season.
Another not so surprising fact is Boston’s lack of production with the wood. In the divisional series win over the Angels, Red Sox bats made contact for a .250 BA, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Fast forward to the present battle with Tampa and Boston’s offense has dipped to a .232 BA, while averaging a full run lower at 3.5 per game (compared to the ALDS). Both J.D. Drew and David Ortiz have struggled in a four-game stretch, batting for a .113 average and still without one RBI generated.
Under the microscope, the Red Sox Ortiz is 1-for-14 with two runs in the last four games. It’s also worth taking into consideration that center fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury (.280 BA with 47 RBIs during the regular season) has gone 0-for-14 with three strikeouts and one walk in the ALCS.
Sportsbetting.com has installed Boston as a $1.55 (bet $155 to make $100) home favorite in this decisive Game 5, with the total set at nine. The Rays are currently 1-to-2 favorites to take the 2008 World Series, a far cry from the 12-to-1 odds to take the AL East before the season began (Tampa was at 50/1 odds to take the division back in February).
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
