TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BASEBALL BETTING

Technical analysis is an analytical methodology used extensively by investors to assist in the timing of stocks and commodity transactions these analytical tools have gained widespread acceptance over the years and currently every large Wall Street research firm has its out technical analyst department. Most sophisticated commodity traders would never attempt a commodity transaction without first analyzing a chart of the underling commodity in order to identify the overall trend, support and resistance levels. It is my opinion that sports betters should do the same. With today’s computers capability, technical analysis has become and essential from of research on Wall Street, which is quite remarkable since investors viewed this type of analysis with great skepticism as early as the 1970’s. Technical analysis applied in sports handicapping can be more insightful than technical analysis of individual stocks and commodities. My technical methodology when applied in sports handicapping identifies support and resistance for both teams that are playing against one another; thereby, provides additional information as compared to the technical analysis of the one isolated stock or commodity chart.

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As an example, a sports handicapper world wager against a team whose chart shows technical resistance and wager for the team whose chart technical support. The ideal scenario is the team with the positive chart that rests on technical support, plays the team with a negative chart that exhibits technical resistance. Traditional technical analysis develops technical trading rules based on observations past price and volume activity of stock market indices and individual stocks. I have done the same in the field of sports using history of win, losses, and magnitude of runs scored to simulate volume. It is in sharp contrast to fundamental analysis, which analyzes a company’s management team, balance sheet, income statement, statement of cash flows, and the overall economic environment. Equating fundamental analysis in the field of sports handicapping one would be analyzing the following data:

1. A good team with superior athletes;
2. A team with exceptional speed;
3. A team with key injuries;
4. A team with a high batting average or a superior pitcher taking the mound against an inferior team.

Unfortunately, this publicly, fundamental information is already figured into the Las Vegas line, and the probability of profiting on this information is low. My non-traditional technical analysis applied to sports handicapping is highly sophisticated, divorced of human emotion, and gives zero weight to fundamental information. To my knowledge, I am the only handicappers using this proprietary methodology, which creates a distance advantage. My strategy provides me with information on teams that are likely to be winners, losers and takes advantage of highly favorable lines. My methodology has proven to have merit, is proprietary, and because it is completely unknown to the line-markers, allows for identifying highly favorable lines.

In the field of sports handicapping there is an increasing amount of historical data of teams and players that have had a meaningful impact in sports analysis. It is my belief that this valuable information has assisted individuals in their goal of picking winning teams, but falls short of giving specific timing signals and trend changes. Examples of common technical date that are available from public sources are the following.

1. After losing the previous game by more than 30 points, and then playing at home, a football team has won and covered the spread 80% of the time.
2. A baseball picture wins 70% of the time after he pitches a shutout in his previous outing.

My technical work differs dramatically from this publicly available information and stems form 22 years of applying technical analysis in the stock and commodity’s markets and 17 years in sports handicapping. Over and above traditional technical tools used in the stock market analysis, (trend lines, moving averages, congestion areas identifying support and resistance) I have experienced that applying Fibonacci retracement levels, Fibonacci time lines, and “The Golden Ratio and Gann numbers, create valuable information in timing wins and loses, as well as projecting probable winning /losing streaks. Certainly the accuracy is not 100%, but when used over the long-term, the information should be a valuable tool for all sports handicappers. I strongly recommend that all sports handicappers know the technical picture of their highlighted games before and wager is place.

Fibonacci Numbers

Leonardo Fibonacci was a famous mathematician of the Middle Ages who was born is Pisa, Italy around 1170. Fibonacci discovered a remarkable set of number that is found throughout the universe that influences many aspects of my daily lives. These influences are found in nature, music, geometry, architecture, and even the financial markets. The Greeks, called the .618 to 1 ratio the “Golden Ratio” made this proportion an integral part of their art and architecture. Leonardo da Vinci used this ratio in his art and the Egyptians constructed the pyramid of Giza in a way that embodies the Fibonacci proportions. Other examples of Fibonacci numbers and the Golden Ratio are found in the following: sunflowers, shells of snails, the spiral of the universe and the financial markets. It is through extensive use of applying Fibonacci numbers in the financial markets that lead me to apply this methodology in the field of sports handicapping. My basic thesis is the action of men and events appear to follow cyclical rhythms and patterns that occur at specified time intervals. These time intervals seem to have some relationship to Fibonacci numbers and the Golden Ratio. Applying this methodology in sports handicapping, I have identified the time intervals of the likely team wins as well as likely support levels, which should protect against a team loss.

Gann Analysis

W.D. Gann was a legendary stock and commodity trader of the early nineteen hundreds who established many rules of speculators to follow that are based on past actions I the financial markets and appear to have some predictive power in indenting profitable trades. An article the appeared in a 1909 edition of Ticker Magazine described that during the month of October 1909, in twenty-five days, Mr. Gann made in the presence of Ticker Magazine representatives, two-hundred and eighty six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. At the end of the month the results showed two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions were profits and twenty-two were losses for over a 1000% gain on his initial capital. This extraordinary chronicle of Gann’s trading is a very good indication that Gann had developed some very powerful trading tools. Through my analysis I have taken some of his mathematical rules and applied then to sports handicapping. By identifying teams approaching Gann support/resistance numbers along with potential trend change dates, give me valuable insight in identifying winning and losing teams.

Why do these rules apply in sports handicapping?

It is common for me the hear that there is no logic in whether a team wins or loses based on Fibonacci numbers, Gann mythologies, or support/resistance levels on a chart. I do not know, nor can I explain on a rational basis why Fibonacci numbers and technical analysis are applicable in sports handicapping. Nor can I explain why these strategies are so useful for trading stocks and commodities. I do know that on Wall Street, even the skeptics now agree that technical analysis is a meaningful analytical tool, evidenced by the broad usage across all markets. I also can say that over the years I have performed much analysis on proving the validity of my strategy with many changes made in reefing my system: Now I feel comfortable in reporting the results daily and offering my work to the public.