Florida, Texas and Toronto have gotten off to a quick start after the first week of play. And then there’s clubs like Cleveland and Washington who continue to search for some sort of cohesion. But keep your hats on because the weekend is here, Easter Sunday highlights family fun and baseball will provide us with some golden opportunities.
Before we jump into the fray, condolences go out to Nick Adenhart and two others who were tragically killed in a car accident Thursday. Adenhart was selected in 14th round of the 2004 draft and was the youngest pitcher at 22 years of age to be on an active MLB roster.
Taking a page from last season’s coverage, this installment of the MLB preview will focus on individual series and games that will catch bettors’ eyes on the board. And off we go…
N.Y. Mets at Florida
Game 2 – Saturday, 6:10 p.m. EST
NYM – L. Hernandez (R) vs. FLA – R. Nolasco (R)
It’s been tough struggles when these two clubs get together around the diamond but it’s Florida that’s had the upper hand as an 11-2 record in the last 13 home games demonstrates. Even more attractive is the Marlins’ 7-2 performance against the Mets when starter Ricky Nolasco is scheduled to pitch. In 2008, Nolasco wasn’t flawless in head-to-head action, struggling to secure a 1-2 record and a 3.48 ERA in six games. But there’s one difference to take into account. When pitching in Shea Stadium during the ’08 season, Nolasco found himself giving up a damaging, .284 BAA and a .321 OBP. Compare that to a .251 BAA and .281 OBP inside Dolphins Stadium and the difference in parks is apparent. Nolasco went six innings, giving up three hits and three runs in a 4-3 victory against the Mets on Aug. 30 (the last home-game against New York). That performance was followed up by a 2-0 loss in New York in the last start of 2008.
Given the history between these two clubs in Florida, the Mets are predicted to have a tough going to begin their first series with the Marlins. New York’s offense has started off on a tare, scoring 17 runs in the last three games against Cincinnati (despite the 8-6 loss in Game 3). Veteran starter Livan Hernandez will make his debut with the Mets on Saturday. Finishing with a 13-11 record and a 6.05 ERA in 2008, Hernandez figures to be an anchor in the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He’s had seven seasons possessing a winning record and is a career, 4.38 ERA slinger. But it’s his experience that New York is looking for. Hernandez has pitched in 12 postseason games for which he’s 7-3 with a 3.97 ERA. His 25 career starts against his former Marlins team has Hernandez at 12-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Game 3 – Sunday, 1:10 p.m. EST
NYM – J. Santana (L) vs. FLA – J. Johnson (R)
Instead of starting out by questioning what Johan Santana has done to the Marlins, it would be more apropos to ask what has the Marlins done to Johan Santana? In only five games that Florida has seen Santana, the club struggled mightily, making contact for a skimp, .184 BA. And the rest of the numbers are just as poor; .250 on base percentage, .304 slugging percentage, 40 strikeouts and only 10 base on balls. But maybe the most damaging of statistics is the Marlins’ 0-5 record versus the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Having started in his first game of the season on Monday, a three hit, one-run performance was capped off by earning the ‘W’ against Cincinnati. The poor weather didn’t seem to play much of a factor in Santana’s performance but 99 pitches in a little over five innings should have carried the All-Star slinger further into the contest.
The Marlins will attempt to come out of the starting gate in a full sprint. The reason being, Florida had its most productive offensive moments in the first inning in 2008. During the start of the game, the Marlins brought in a team high, 95 RBIs with 33 homeruns in the first inning. And low and behold, the Mets’ Santana struggled the most in the first inning, giving up a .287 BAA and an OPS of .726. On the flip side, that BAA number dips down to .223 when factoring in innings one through three. Now is the time to strike for Florida as last year proved that April/March had the club batting for a season high, .261. That number gradually dropped month by month. But this is a clubhouse that changes drastically from season to season.
Boston at L.A. Angels
Game 2 – Saturday, 4:10 p.m. EST
BOS – B. Penny (R) vs. LAA – S. Loux (R)
After winning Game 1, 5-3, Boston proceeded to get smacked by Tampa Bay in Game 2 and 3, losing by a combined score of 11-5. Now newly acquired starter, Brad Penny will get to show his stuff after having a horrible 2008 season. Penny is coming off a 6-9 showing in ’08 but it was his shoulder problem that related to just 17 starts. This coming from a guy who went 32-13 with a 3.68 ERA from 2006 and 2007. Being a National Leaguer throughout his career, Penny will be facing the Angels for the first time in his career. Reverting back to interleague play, the right-hander is a current 7-11 in 23 starts versus AL teams. A 5.08 ERA coupled with a 1.36 WHIP has given way to a .279 BAA>
The Red Sox are just 3-9 in their last 12 head-to-head meetings and are 2-3 in their last five in Anaheim.
The tragic loss of Nick Adenhart has put a heavy psychological strain on this club. Personal wise, the pitching staff has been decimated by injury and placing right-hander, Shane Loux on the mound is evidence of the depletion. Loux is the classic mold of Triple-A pitchers. His control over the strike zone is suspect at best and unless he keeps the ball down, Cactus League batters have had fun times lifting the ball. In his Major League career of seven starts and 21 total games of action spanning back to 2002, Loux is 1-4 with a 6.41 ERA.
The ‘under’ is 38-18-4 in the Angels last 60 during Game 2 of a series.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Game 3 – Sunday on ESPN at 8:05 p.m. EST
CHC – R. Dempster (R) vs. MIL – J. Suppan (R)
The game to end the weekend will have Chicago slinger Ryan Dempster going up against Milwaukee’s righty, Jeff Suppan. Suppan was bombarded for six hits and six earned runs on only 62 pitches in four innings of work in his season debut. But let’s not be too surprised as the 34-year-old hurler logged in 10 starts last season that had him pitching five innings of less. In-fact in the final four appearances on the mound, Supan tossed an average of 3.3 innings, giving up 6.8 hits per game and 4.3 runs per game.
At the plate, the Brewers brought in a .253 BA (12th worst in the NL), an OBP of .325 (10th ranked) and 1,398 total hits (11th ranked). What padded 722 RBIs was a high, 198 homeruns (third best in the NL). Against the Cubs last year, Milwaukee scratched together an ineffective, .250 BA but found a way to cross the plate for 4.5 runs per game. Other then posting satisfactory RBIs numbers against Houston and St. Louis, the Brewers found a way to get the job done in the offensive department with 69 total RBIs versus the Cubs. But a pitching staff that posted a 5.16 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP helped push Milwaukee behind in the record books with a 7-9 performance versus Chicago last year.
As for the Cubs, hitting .282 with 17 runs scored in the first three games (two wins and a loss against Houston). Starting pitcher Ryan Dempster will begin the night on the hill for Chicago. In his first win this season against the Astros, Dempster posted some solid numbers (five strikeouts and two runs allowed on six hits) but found himself walking three batters (something that could be detrimental to Dempster as the season rolls on).
Dempster is 3-1 pitching in Miller Park for his career. This is accompanied by a 1.90 ERA, giving up 13 runs in 52 innings of work. During the last three years, Dempster is 4-1 with a .182 BAA against Milwaukee.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
