Talk about totals wagering in baseball has been buzzing of late. Attention to the science of wind at new Yankee Stadium and conversation about the large dimensions at Citi Field are topics that have taken center stage. In reaction to these developments it’s only right that Wednesday’s preview focuses on this high or low totals.
By the way, Monday opened up the week with the ‘under’ registering a 4-1 record on the ‘under’.
Oakland at N.Y. Yankees – 1:05 p.m. EST
Other then Cleveland, the Yankees have played more day games then any other team in the Majors. This begs the question, is New York’s 9-4 ‘over’ performance in response to games played while the sun is above the horizon? The answer is unequivocally, yes.
It’s obvious that Yankee Stadium has helped push the total ‘over’ its mark three times in four afternoon games played there, but what about the remaining five? Only three day games have dropped ‘under’ the set total as New York has averaged 5.2 runs per game during this time frame. And then there's the Pinstripes’ 6.84 ERA linked to a .285 BAA and a third high, 15 home runs allowed during sun up.
The evidence so far proves that whether in Yankee Stadium or not, New York and its opponents have sent total players rushing to the window. In just the first four games a total of 20 homers were produced by both the Yanks and Indians.
The planets could be aligned on Wednesday afternoon as Oakland takes a visit to the new ballpark in the Bronx. The Athletics aren’t a stranger to the total phenomenon as their 8-4 tab on the ‘over’ indicates. But what we can’t fall back on is Oakland’s unconvincing 3-2 record on the ‘under’ during five day games played.
Of course with the strong support on the ‘over’ comes a 13-3 ‘under’ record in the last 16 head-to-head games played in New York between both clubs. The ‘under’ continues to roll on the board as a 4-0 run has been recorded in the last four meetings.
This mid-week matchup will have the Athletics starting lefty hurler, Brett Anderson (0-2, 4.85 ERA). Anderson has seen the ‘over’ cash in during the two starts he’s been a part of. While giving up two runs in the first game and five during the second, 19 total runs have been accounted for. Combine this with the fact that books have set totals of 8 ½ and eight, in that order, and we get the ‘over’ riding that 2-0 wave.
In nine games that southpaw pitchers have been a part of, the Yanks have accumulated a .320 BA. On top of the scorching batting average, New York has also posted 15 RBIs, a .389 on base percentage and a slugging percentage of .550. However, these numbers take a dive in Yankee Stadium as New York has scored just two runs per game. But in defense, we’re still early on in the season for this sample size to mean much.
The weather report is becoming something more to focus on in the Bronx these days and the latest forecast has cloudy daytime skies with an expected wind of 13 MPH coming out of the southwest. In relation to the new ballpark, a westward wind equates to one blowing out to right field. Stay tuned for daily updates when available. There’s a sense that climatologists, meteorologists and any other –ologists who can comment on the weather effects at Yankee Stadium will be at a premium in the foreseeable future.
L.A. Dodgers at Houston – 8:05 p.m. EST
We’re going from one extreme to the next. While Oakland and New York have been celebrated by gamblers for the ‘over’ success, Houston has been a polar opposite. There’s been no difference between the occurrence of these totals at night (1-7 ‘under’) versus day games (1-3 ‘under’).
There’s no secret to this total trend as the Astros have limped to the plate. We’re talking about a clubhouse who’s driving in only three runs per game (2.9 runs in the last eight) on a slouching, .250 seasonal batting average. This gives the pitching staff some room to make mistakes from the standpoint of hitting the ‘under’.
The rotation and pen have tacked on a lackluster, 4.42 ERA while a 1.47 WHIP is nothing to write home about. And then there’s Houston’s 2-5 record at home even though the pitching staff has responded with an improved 3.66 ERA versus its yearly average (all the much more for the ‘under’ to come calling).
Since we’re not talking about much of an offense let’s jump right to the expected starter. The ‘Stros plan on sending their ace, Roy Oswalt (0-2, 4.26 ERA) to the mound. The right-handed veteran has already been part of two ‘under’ games out of three starts. It was on Apr. 11 that Oswalt surrendered six runs in St. Louis that caused the ‘over’ to top the installed, 7 ½-runs.
Turning back the pages reveals that Oswalt is 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA in eight career starts versus the Dodgers. L.A. has struggled to make contact against the three-time All-Star, slacking in the box with a .257 BA. Twenty runs scored during this matchup trickles down to only 2.5 runs scored per game for the Dodgers. Something else to factor in come Wednesday.
L.A. is at risk to break Houston’s streak despite the above numbers. The Dodgers are 6-2-1 on the ‘over’ in their last nine as scoring 7.6 runs per game is good reason for pushing the total north of the set value.
L.A. is expected to insert lefty, Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.93 ERA) onto the rubber in this contest. Let’s just say that a .226 BA and eight runs produced by the Astros versus southpaws is another reason why the ‘under’ makes a whole lot of sense.
Quick Hitter
-- The White Sox and Orioles will get Game 2 started at 7:05 p.m. EST. Chicago is slated to return John Danks (1-0, 0.75 ERA) to the hill as Baltimore will counter with Jeremy Guthrie (2-0, 4.32 ERA).
-- Chicago is so far, 1-3 in Game 2 of series thus far. In a four-game series versus Tampa Bay, the total went 3-1 on the ‘over’ as the offense was responsible for tacking on seven runs per game. Totals were set by most books at a consistent, 8 ½ to nine runs.
-- The Orioles are a smoking, 7-1 on the ‘over’ in their last eight games. Scoring five runs per game has been only half of the story as the pitching game has done the rest. This is a group of arms responsible for the third worst ERA in the league, currently at 6.69. Mix in opponents hitting for a .324 BA with 24 balls that have found the stands and things become quite clear.
-- In 91 at bats versus southpaw pitchers (Chicago’s Danks is that lefty being referenced), Baltimore is batting .264 for 15 RBIs (14th ranked) and a low 38 total bases. But in-between these numbers is Orioles’ right-handed batters teeing off for a .340 BA with seven RBIs versus these same lefty pitchers.
-- The ‘over’ is 12-4-2 in the last 18 meetings in Baltimore. The ‘over’ is 6-21 in Guthrie’s last 10 home starts versus a team with a winning record.
-- Early lines being posted are Baltimore as a $1.25 home favorite. A total of nine runs has been installed.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
