Every season the discussion of lefty pitchers weighs heavily on our wagering success. Are certain batters floundering versus southpaw slingers, making their given team a liability on the day’s card? Are certain lefties stinking it up, thereby negating the matchup effectiveness?
Let’s take a look at games on tap that fit the bill for the given scenario.
Cincinnati (B. Arroyo – R) at Pittsburgh (Z. Duke – L) – 7:05 p.m. EST
Focus is given to fifth year veteran Zack Dukes (3-1, 2.43 ERA) in this NL Central tussle. Finishing off his rookie year in 2005 with an 8-2 record and a 1.81 ERA, tremendous optimism for Dukes’ future was brought to the forefront. The problem became well documented however as the lefty slinger ballooned his ERA to 5.53 at the end of the 2007 season. He’s yet to see a winning season like the rookie year that sparked great interest.
But 2009 looks to be a launch pad thus far. Dukes is 3-1 in four starts, has allowed just one homer in 29.2 innings pitched and has walked a grand total of six batters. His .252 BAA has helped translate into a rock bottom, 1.11 WHIP. Dukes is coming off a solid, 8.1 inning start against San Diego which he cashed in as a win, giving up six hits and one earned run. Overall this season, right-handed hitters are coming up empty, batting around the order for a .214 BA and a .571 OPS.
Could the stars be aligned on Friday when the Pirates go up against Cincinnati? The Reds are ranked second worst in the Majors with a .208 BA which has been responsible for producing just 19 RBIs versus southpaw pitchers. And the statistical mess goes on…
For a pitcher who was 8-22 with a 5.08 ERA in 51 games things sure look a much brighter for Zack Dukes. But can we expect Friday’s start, let alone 2009, to be another win for Pittsburgh backers? Dukes will have fellow lefty hitter, Joey Votto to contend with. The Cincy first baseman is a sizzling, .346 with 20 RBIs and three long balls.
Chicago White Sox (M. Buehrle – L) at Texas (S. Feldman – R) – 8:05 p.m. EST
The durable Chicago southpaw, Mark Buehrle (3-0, 3.00 ERA) can best be described as a machine. Since 2001, the undefeated slinger has logged in 200-plus innings every year. Buehrle will be coming off six days of rest in this contest against the Rangers as he exchanges spots with Gavin Floyd.
On the topic of matchups, Buehrle is giving up a .266 BA versus right-handers but it’s at home where the lefty has been most consistent. In three starts at U.S. Cellular Field, the nine-year vet has accounted for a 2-0 record. Effective numbers include a .219 BAA, five earned runs sacrificed and striking out 12 batters for 17 Ks on the season. But help has come in the form of seven runs of support per start. That leaves the door open for Buehrle to make mistakes while still having the chance to right the ship.
But maybe the most telling of tales in this game is Buehrle’s dominating 10-3 career record versus Texas. No matter what the roster looks like in the Lone Star State, the White Sox lefty has worked for a 2.68 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Two complete games and one shutout put the icing on this impressive, 13 career start resume.
The White Sox are 19-7 in Buehrle’s last 26 starts on natural grass.
San Diego (J. Peavy – R) at L.A. Dodgers (C. Kershaw – L) – 10:10 p.m. EST
While Duke and Buehrle have plenty to offer, Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 7.29 ERA) has been nothing short of disastrous. About the only positive we can draw from the hat is his 21-year age and raw talent that has yet to be fully realized.
In his last two starts, the lefty allowed both Houston and Colorado to pile on the runs, allowing a total of 15 earned runs and three home runs off 16 hits. Kershaw has had problems finding the strike zone with consistency as six base on balls illustrates.
Maybe most surprising is that while lefty swingers are struggling to make contact with a .182 BA, right-handers are cracking Kershaw’s curveball for a .270 BA and an off the charts, .859 OPS. Nine walks in 63 at bats is a troubling trend and one that has helped pad the offensive explosion.
The Dodgers have big plans for the 7th overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft, but the start to the 2009 season has been one to forget.
The Padres find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of posting numbers versus lefty pitches. San Diego has been able to post 30 runs on the board despite swinging the stick for a not so attractive, .231 BA. The disparity between runs scored and a low BA stems from the Pads teeing off for seven ding dongs in the 20 games they’ve faced left-handed pitchers.
Extra Innings
-- Houston and Atlanta will gather on the diamond at 7:30 p.m. EST. Most books have opened the Astros as $1.66 home favorites. A total of eight runs has been set.
-- Staying true to the theme, lefty slinger Mike Hampton (1-1, 3.86 ERA) will climb to the top of the mound. In his last start against Milwaukee, Hampton saw the ball fly on eight hits resulting in four earned runs surrendered in six innings. His 101 pitch count factored into three walks with just four Ks produced.
-- Versus his old team, Atlanta, Hampton is a career, 4-9 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. But it’s the last four years of his career that have been more disappointing then any stat split can indicate. He’s started in a total of 25 games since 2005, winning just eight games and posting a 4.18 ERA. Injuries have been the cause for the gap in starts, ranging anywhere from oblique problems to the more damaging, elbow shutdowns. The one bright spot this season was tossing a gem against the Pirates on Apr. 15.
-- Both righties and lefties and seen results off Hampton in 2009, combining for a .287 BA and a .731 OPS.
-- Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 head-to-head games and the ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine get-togethers.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
