Kudos to Toronto for holding onto first place in the AL East heading into a fresh week of play. Batting around the lineup for a league best, .292 BA all while crossing the plate for 5.9 runs per game, the Blue Jays are not only ahead of the pack in the standings but have generated top dollar results on both money line and totals wagering.
Home Field Advantage
Toronto tips off Monday’s card against Cleveland harnessing a 10-3 record at home. But despite the Jays hitting the ‘over’ 16 times in 27 games, a contrasting 5-3 performance on the ‘under’ inside the confines of Rogers Centre in the last eight is indicative to a 3.34 ERA bolstered by a wood splitting, .219 BAA.
| 5/03 |
vs. BAL |
-125 |
W, 4-3 |
UNDER |
| 5/02 |
vs. BAL |
-113 |
W, 5-4 |
UNDER |
| 5/01 |
vs. BAL |
-230 |
W, 8-4 |
OVER |
| 4/23 |
at TEX |
-107 |
W, 5-2 |
UNDER 9.5 |
| 4/22 |
vs. TEX |
-143 |
W, 8-7 |
OVER 10.5 |
| 4/21 |
vs. TEX |
-210 |
L, 5-4 |
OVER 8.5 |
| 4/19 |
vs. OAK |
-124 |
W, 1-0 |
UNDER 9 |
| 4/18 |
vs. OAK |
-109 |
W, 4-2 |
UNDER 9 | |
Instead of looking at what Toronto has done to keep the overall ‘under’ at 8-5 inside its own building let’s see why the club has gravitated towards those five ‘over’ plays. What jumps off the page is an offense responsible for crushing the ball for a .460 slugging percentage while going yard 20 times. It hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ .267 BA and .346 on base percentage that’s possessed the biggest threat to scoring in bunches. In just those five home contests, Toronto bats have accounted for eight homers alone. It’s safe to say that power hitting and the long ball are large overall factors for the five ‘over’ plays.
A quick look ahead this week will have the Blue Jays meeting the Indians north of the boarder for a pair of games. The good news on par with this discussion is Cleveland’s 8-4-1 ‘over’ record on the road. The Tribe is coming off a three-game stretch in Detroit for which the ‘over’ reigned supreme yet again at 2-1. The reason; how about the pitching staff’s problems being exposed yet again? This is a group of arms tossing up grapefruits for a 6.67 ERA in 108 innings away from home. Fausto Carmona will get the nod on Monday as he brings a 3-2 record on the ‘over’ this season. Minus a decent outing in his last start (losing to Boston 6-5), Carmona has been responsible for allowing 4.5 earned runs and three full walks per start. The fact that southpaws have crushed the three-year veteran for a .343 BA, an immediate improvement might be tough to predict.
Cleveland will send out righty, Anthony Reyes out to the mound on Tuesday. He’s coming off a tough outing versus Boston last week, getting tagged for nine hits and seven runs in a grand total of two innings. A 3-1 record on the ‘over’ fits perfectly into uncovering patterns for this trend to strike yet again.
Road Work
The Cardinals won’t hit the road until visiting Cincinnati on Friday, but that doesn’t take away from the recent 4-2 run that they have put together in both Washington and Atlanta last week. In three of the four victories, books had closed St. Louis as underdogs ranging from +106 (bet $100 to make $106) to +126 (bet $100 to make $126). Knocking in 5.8 runs in the four wins was no doubt impressive but it was the defense that marked the high point in the last six contests.
Overall, a 3.94 ERA, a .256 BAA and allowing a skimp, .335 OBP have all been instrumental in the road run. But three blown saves and a 1.7 strikeout to walk ratio doesn’t support the club’s recent success. What does make sense is starter Joel Pineiro’s 2-1 record on the road this season despite a .315 BAA. Ace in the hole, Adam Wainwright has grabbed two of his three wins away from home thanks to receiving 6.2 runs of support per start and slinger Todd Wellemeyer has been much more successful on the road versus pitching at home (has allowed three total runs in the last two road starts).
Following in the wake of solid road pitching is an ‘under’ record which finished up at 4-1-1 in the same six road games. An average combined score of 7.3 runs per game complimented totals that were set anywhere from eight to 10 ½-runs. The lone ‘over’ play was in the Cardinals’ 9-4 win in Washington last Thursday.
St. Louis will play the Phillies and Pirates before hitting the road in two, three-game sets at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Low Scoring Home Success
The Giants might be an unlikely candidate for a 10-4 record in the first 14 home games but that’s exactly the road this team has taken. This is in stark contrast two begging for a lonely, 2-7 disaster on the road this season. But contrast is the word that’s hanging over this club. From generating a league worst, 3.6 runs per game to the pitching staff working overtime to maintain a league, fourth best 3.68 ERA, it’s the team of drastic differences.
| Home |
2.39 |
.218 |
.300 |
8.30 |
2.41 |
| Road |
5.79 |
.286 |
.379 |
8.11 |
1.52 | |
It’s been four straight games that books have closed the window with San Francisco as the favorite. In the three-game sweep versus the Rockies, the Giants were anywhere from $1.08 favorites to open the series and $1.18 faves in Game 3 as Barry Zito pitched a seven inning gem. Overall, San Fran has closed down the counter as home favorites nine times in the 14 total games played on the Bay.
It doesn’t take too much reading between the lines as starters Zito, Randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez have all clocked in with ERA’s fewer than 2.00. The entire pitching staff, from the starters to relievers, is leading the league by tossing a 2.39 ERA at home. But it’s a culmination of many factors that have helped classify the Giants as a juggernaut at home. Led by Jeremy Affeldt is a bullpen pulling in six holds with an 8.9 strikeout to walk ration (averaged between Affeldt, Bob Howry and Brandon Medders). In-fact, San Francisco has logged in 118 total strikeouts, ranking it second best in the league.
Putting this into perspective has the same pitching staff lobbing up an inflated, 5.79 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP in 77.2 innings of action on the road. This has also helped books to install San Francisco as a road underdog six times in a total of nine games played already.
Given the condition of an offense tallying up a .248 BA for 3.6 runs per game, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ‘under’ is 6-1-3 in the last 10 (3-0 in the last three home games and 3-1-2 in the last six home games).
Unfortunately, bettors will have to wait for until next week to possibly capitalize on the Giants’ home dominance. San Francisco will play two in Chicago, two in Colorado and three in L.A. until it makes the trek back to the Bay.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
