Just before the weekend brings us plenty of action to wager on, Major League Baseball will reset its schedule by introducing a fresh set of matchups. Two series to keep an eye have the Rangers looking to defend their home turf against the incoming Angels and the Mets traveling to the West Coast to take on the Giants.
Pending Thursday’s results, the ‘over’ is 20-14 this week. Despite a fall out on Tuesday (10-5 on the ‘under’), total players enjoyed a perfect 4-0 ‘over’ record on Monday followed by an 11-4 tab on the ‘over’ on Wednesday. Where the money will end up cashing is our mission in today’s MLB preview.
L.A. Angels at Texas – 8:05 p.m. EST
May has been a good month for the Rangers (19-14, +6.96). Nine wins in the last 12 games doesn’t become reality for no reason. This is a lineup bringing in 5.4 runs per game off a .301 BA and an .840 OPS. And despite Texas recording 5.8 runs in April, a .269 BA helped explain the club’s 10-12 record. But there’s no overlooking the pitching game which holds the key to the rest of this story. In-fact, while April had both starters and bullpen logging in an inflated, 5.65 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP, the current month of May has the staff combining for a much improved, 3.06 ERA accompanied by an untouchable, 1.01 WHIP. Talk about contrasting numbers.
The Rangers will attempt to abort the Angels’ 8-3 record in their last 11 head-to-head meetings by placing ace, Kevin Millwood (3-3, 2.92) on the hill. In 11 career appearances versus the Halos, Millwood is 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA.
The number of the day favoring Texas is a 14-2 record this season when the bats have produced six or more runs in a given contest. Already hitting knocking in 6.6 runs per game in the last three wins, can we expect the offensive numbers to continue over the weekend?
Starting the season by going 6-12 in its first 18 games, Los Angeles (17-15, +3.71) has decided to change its direction in the standings. Since taking an 8-4 win over the Yankees on May 2, the Angles are 8-2 in their last 10. During this month’s run, L.A. has received mix reviews from the pitching staff. Relievers Scott Shields and Brian Fuentes have made 11 combined appearances, tossing up a 5.57 ERA while walking four total batters in 7.3 innings of work. Despite these lukewarm numbers, Fuentes has still logged in four saves, blowing his last attempt on May 1. The team held its breath again in a 4-2 win over Kansas City on Sunday when Torii Hunter made a leaping catch at the fence which would have cost Fuentes big time. But the loss was adverted in the end.
Smoking lefty slinger, Joe Saunders (5-1, 2.66 ERA) will get an opportunity to wrangle in his sixth win of the season on Friday. Righty batters have made contact for a .236 BA this season against Saunders. But the Angels’ starter will be making his eighth start of the season versus a Rangers’ team whose clobbered lefties for a .292 BA.
L.A. will enter this contest with a 22-7 record in Saunders last 29 road starts. Sportsbook.com has listed Texas as a $1.16 home favoite with a total of 10 runs attached.
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco – 10:15 p.m. EST
The headline in this late night matchup revolves around San Francisco’s (18-15, +2.97) 12-5 record at home versus its 6-10 lackluster performance on the road. But a recent 5-2 climb in their last seven games could be something to pick up on. A 9-3 run in its last 12 home stands stems from a pitching staff that’s ranked No. 2 in the league with a home ERA at 3.14 followed by a K/9 ratio of 8.36. The problem remains in the batting order where a .266 BA on the season isn’t effective by the lowest of standards.
The Giants are coming off a seven-game road trip for which the club was installed as a favorite just once (in a 6-2 win over the Cubs with Tim Lincecum making the start). During this stretch San Francisco went 4-3, scoring 3.9 runs per game which resulted in the ‘over’ going an unpredictable 4-3. Lincecum (3-1, 3.25) will get the nod once again on Friday.
As for the Mets (18-15, -1.78), a seven-game win streak came to an abrupt end against Atlanta on Monday, losing 8-3. What became the usual suspect in that defeat versus the Braves was starter Johan Santana making another solid start for New York only to turn around and find that the offense was once again missing in action. On the season, Santana has received just 2.9 runs of support per start. So when he squares off against San Fran on Saturday, expect some uneasiness from the ace, especially coming from an offense that’s scored just 66 runs on the road (23rd worst in the league).
For Friday, New York is planning on sending out Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.08 ERA) to the rubber. Hernandez is coming off a win against Pittsburgh, tossing 104 pitches and giving up seven hits and two runs. However, right-handers have tattooed the Mets’ starting pitcher for a .333 BA.
New York is 8-3 in its last 11 games when installed as an underdog versus San Francisco going 7-2 in Lincecum’s last nine starts.
Most books have installed the Giants as 'chalky' $1.65 home favorites with Lincecum on the mound. A run total of eight has been placed on the board.
Cincinnati at San Diego – 10:05 p.m. EST
The Reds (20-14, +8.65) have been sizzling on the run line this season, now at +12.40 units on the season. Six of its last wins have come by a run margin of 4.2 runs per game despite swinging the lumber for a seasonal .263 BA while driving in 4.6 runs per game (19th ranked in the Majors). But if we narrow our research to just the month of May a whole different picture comes to light. Now we’re looking at an offense that’s put together a serious hitting rally, jacking 18 long balls out of various stadiums and bringing in a second best 73 RBIs (one RBI below Washington for the Major League lead).
Despite being installed as the ‘dog in two of its last three games, Cincinnati has been able to defy the odds. In these three contests, the Reds have brought in a total of 26 runs (albeit against a down and out Arizona club).
And so Cinci will pen in No. 1 starter, Aaron Harang to Friday’s matchup. His seven starts this season have been inconsistent, and run support has either been there in bunches or not at all. A 3.7 K/BB ratio continues to rise and 7.24 strikeouts per nine is in the neighborhood of his career average.
As for the Padres (13-21, -6.05), right-hander, Kevin Correia (0-2, 5.34) is slated to start. Still in search of his first win this season, Correia began to settle down in his last start in Houston, throwing in six innings, giving up two earned runs off four hits. His problem has been base on balls as Correia is averaging 3.2 walks per game. But sources say that this could be Corria’s last start for now as San Diego will be inserting Cha Seung (arm) into the rotation.
Dropping five in a row and 18 of its last 22, San Diego has been a money pit. We’re talking about a club that been an underdog 16 times in the last 18 games! And a 5-15 record at home has been downright embarrassing. At least the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight games.
The ‘under’ is 11-4 in the Reds last 15 road games. Books have decided to open San Diego as a $1.10 home underdog. A total of eight runs has also been set.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
