The pendulum has a funny way of swinging from one end to the other. One moment we could be looking at a team that spells F.A.D.E. play only to see that same club embrace the long, 162-game season as a bonafide winner.
Giving credit to this week's card, the Yankees top the list of a club turning things around. While the story line in 2009 is plenty young, that doesn’t stop our investigative work. Ultimately, we can’t stop working to find that inside edge until our bank roll is accounted for and there’s no more baseball to bet on.
N.Y. Yankees (21-17, -280)
Still in the red for the fiscal year, or should I say season, the Yankees have certainly made the last week of play interesting. Three consecutive walk-off wins, a pitching staff holding teams to 2.4 runs per game in the last seven victories and a 6-3-1 record for the ‘under’ in the last 10 have equated to cash in the bank.
Those six ‘under’ plays are our main focus. It doesn’t take much digging through the stats to uncover why we’re witnessing low-scoring games as of late. First is a pitching staff (both starters and relievers) that’s been averaging a 5.30 ERA on the year. Narrow the search down to the last seven days and that same staff is now picking teams apart, working to produce a much more effective 2.89 ERA.
You can’t complete this discussion on the totals run without looking at the offense. Despite the three walk-off wins, the batters’ box has been struggling. Since May 11th, the Pinstripes have only slapped the ball around for an underachieving, .244 BA with 4.3 runs and 6.7 strikeouts per game. Opposing pitchers, Roy Holliday for Toronto and Minnesota's Kevin Slowey were spot on in their last outings against New York while the Yanks' Nick Swisher (.105 BA), Robinson Cano (.143) and Melky Cabrera (.211) truly tanked in their last seven-day efforts. These were just two facests of the game helping to highlight our 'under' run.
This Week: There’s no rest for the weary as New York passes the baton in Baltimore. The Orioles began the season matchup by taking the first two games in April. But the tables have turned as the Yanks have taken the last three of four games, outscoring Baltimore 11-2 in a lone get-together on Mar. 9. C.C Sabathia (2-1, 2.28 ERA) will try his lefty luck on the hill in Game 1 of a three-game series against the Orioles while Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain get pitching duties in Game 2 and 3 respectively. Going against the grain is the ‘over’ cashing in at 9-5-1 in the last 15 head-to-head matchups. In regards to this season, the Yanks are knocking in 5.8 runs per game with a .278 BA versus Baltimore. If we factor in the O’s three starters, Bard Bergesen (1-1, 5.27), Jeremy Guthrie (3-3, 5.21) and Adam Eaton (2-4, 7.93) taking the hill on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday then the argument of high scoring contests can be supported. In Baltimore’s case this is a club that’s on a current 5-1 run on the ‘over’ in the last six games. This is despite the organization bringing in an AL East low, 192 runs.
Betting Trends: New York is batting .302 versus left-handed hitters this season, helping to award backers with a 9-4 record this season versus lefty starters (and a far reaching 53-21 in its last 74 home games versus southpaw starters). The Orioles have suffered in the Bronx, going 17-35 in their last 52 meetings in New York. Baltimore just finished up a four-game set in Kansas City, splitting the series while scoring 4.3 runs per game.
The Yankees’ starting slinger Sabathia was a $1.56 favorite in his last start against Baltimore. Hughes was a $1.41 favorite in the 12-5 defeat versus the O’s on May 9 while Chamberlain brought home the bacon the following day as a $1.38 favorite.
Texas (23-14, +1101)
Up against right or left-handed pitchers to teams playing above or below the .500 mark, the Texas Rangers have refused to take the pedal off the metal. The Rangers are on a current seven-game winnings streak, have ripped off 13 wins of the last 16 games in May and are not only +11.01 units up on the money line but are also a financially viable +6.65 units on the run line this season.
Ian Kinsler (32 RBIs), Hank Blalock (24) and Nelson Cruz (22) are all on pace to record 100-plus RBIs this year. Michael Young is crushing the ball for a .351 BA and even Andruw Jones has produced when inserted into the batter’s box. More importantly, the offensive push is taking place while power slugger, Josh Hamilton is just coming off the 15-day DL (Hamilton was just diagnosed on Sunday as having a minor groin strain).
But as the old adage goes, what’s hitting without pitching?
In the Rangers last road trips to Seattle, Oakland and in Chicago against the White Sox, starters Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Scott Feldman and lefty Matt Harrison all came together to cash tickets as the road underdog. In the most extreme case, starting pitcher Padilla (3-2, 4.71) was penciled in as much as a $1.52 ‘dog against the Mariners on May 5. The right-hander reflected the direction of the pitching staff this month, arguably tossing the best no-decision effort in Texas history. Padilla capped the evening off with a one hitter, giving up an unearned run. And let’s be honest, the 220-pound Padilla hasn’t defined his career as Mr. invincible (recording four seasons with a winning record in 10 total years as a pro). But the effort that this club has been getting from the starters down to the closer this season has been explosive.
So we’re left deciphering the near future through a pitching staff that’s accounted for a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a .223 BAA in just the month of May.
This Week: A three game-series beginning on Tuesday against Detroit will witness starters, Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92), Matt Harrison (4-2, 4.23) and Kevin Millwood (4-3, 2.93) toeing the slab in that order. The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 road games but have already suffered in the Motor City this year, dropping three straight in April. In those three defeats, books had predicted losing outings by installing Texas as $1.44, $1.68 and $1.15 ‘dogs (Game 1 to 3 in that order). The Tigers plan to counter when they send out Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 7.71), Justin Verlander (3-2, 4.29) and Edwin Jackson to the mound. Both Verlander and Jackson have buckled down, accounting for a 5-0 record in the last six combined starts (Verlander recieved a heart wrenching no-decision in his last start against the Twins).
Betting Trends: With a high powered offense and consistent pitching, the Rangers are 7-2 on the ‘under’ in their last nine overall games. Texas is also 8-4 on the ‘under’ in its last 12 road games. The Rangers are 22-15 on the run line this year (+6.65 units). Backers on the Rangers this season will no doubt be concerned about the team getting swept under the rug with a 0-8 tumble in the last eight meetings in Detroit. The Tigers have been able to capitalize on what’s been a very weak pitching staff in Texas’ recent history. In those eight home games, Detroit has crossed home plate for 8.9 runs per game, scoring double digit runs in three of those contests.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
