For Wednesday, this is what the MLB card will bring in terms of late-night matchups.
L.A. Angels at Seattle – 10:10 p.m. EST
Right out of the gate, books have opened the home town Mariners as $1.30 underdogs. A total of nine runs has also been attached to this matchup. Seattle began the season going 7-2 in its first nine games only to lose 12 out of 17 games to start May. It’s been a quick trip to the dry cleaners for backers.
Now sitting at -3.06 units on the season, the M’s find themselves battling problems on both the offensive and defensive fronts. The big bang came when manager Don Wakamatsu announced that closer Brandon Morrow would no longer be the closer, at least for the time being. Morrow has blown two save attempts in the last three outings while giving up four hits and two runs in a 10-6 loss against the Angels on Monday, only compounding the difficulties.
At least gamblers can attest that a 5-2-1 record on the ‘under’ in the last eight is worth getting out of the chair to make the trip to the window. Guess when you’re only scoring 3.8 runs per game (during the eight game stretch) the ‘under’ is not such a tough task to accomplish.
Seattle will give it a whirl with starting slinger, Chris Jakubauskas (2-4, 7.13). The six-foot plus pitcher has been giving up a world of runs since making his first start. In the last three appearances, Jakubauskas has surrendered 16 earned runs. His last start against L.A. was on Apr. 16 for which the starter threw 5.1 innings, giving up five hits and two runs in a 5-1 loss.
The Angels have seen more winning streaks then losing slides this season but that’s not to say that a 1-3 performance check in the last four is cash money. At least when installed as the favorite in the last nine games, the Halos are 7-2. That translates into a disparaging 5-9 record in the last 14 games when set as the ‘dog.
But with righty, Ervin Santana (0-0, 5.40 ERA) on the mound, L.A. doesn’t have to worry about fighting off the odds as the underdog. Santana made ’09 debut against Boston last Thursday, allowing three runs off seven hits. Remember that Santana dealt with elbow pain in the beginning of the year. But if there’s good news it’s that the Angels’ starter was 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA last season in Safeco Field.
Already this season, the Mariners hold a 4-3 edge in head-to-head games. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
N.Y. Mets at L.A. Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. EST
Sportsbook.com has opened the Dodgers as $1.40 home favorites as a total of 9 ½-runs is the consensus among most books.
The Mets haven’t played horribly per se, but the season hasn’t necessarily gone as planned. Without delving into every single piece of this corky puzzle let’s begin by stating that New York has been a totals machine, chalking up a 9-3 record on the ‘over’ in the last 12. Of course to understand the future we must look into the past and that’s where we see numbers that are tough to gage. For instance, New York has surrendered a consistent 4.5 runs per game in the last 24 and have crossed home plate for over five runs in the same stint. But 14 of those games have seen the Mets defense allow four or more runs and eight games surrendering six or more runs. So to say that the pitching game has been spot on would be highly inaccurate.
And that leads us to veteran Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.59) starting off the night for the Mets. Hernandez hasn’t necessarily been unstoppable but as a totals player, a 5-2 record on the ‘over’ has been consistent. This has been possible thanks to books averaging a set total of just over nine runs. The end result has been games averaging a combined total of 12.1 runs per game.
The Dodgers, who have been on somewhat of a hot streak by wrangling up five of the last six games, will send out starter Eric Stults (4-1, 3.82). The southpaw has given up over three runs just once this season and his offense has been able to produce 8.3 runs per game in his four victories. In his last start on Friday, Stults only survived five innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits. His career versus the Mets has been shallow, appearing in just three starts and working for a 1-1 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
The Dodgers have a strangle hold in home games, going 41-14 in their last 55 home games. The Mets were able to get the leg up on L.A. last season as a 4-1 record in their last five meetings indicates.
Extra Innings
-- The final late night contest (for us East Coast folks) will involve a contest between San Francisco and San Diego at 10:05 p.m. EST. Most books have opened the Padres as $1.30 home favorites. A total of eight runs is currently being listed on the board.
-- The Padres have listed Chad Gaudin (0-3, 4.91) as their starting pitcher. So far winless on the season, Gaudin is coming off an awkward loss in Chicago for which the righty surrendered just one hit but four runs and seven base on balls. Gaudin has walked at least three batters in every start this season. But this shouldn’t come as a surprise as the six-year vet was clocked in giving up 100 walks in 34 starts back in 2007 (almost three walks per game).
-- The Giants will counter by sending out Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 5.06) into battle. Sanchez has been ruffed up in his last three starts, accounting for 13 earned runs allowed. And issuing 15 walks in the same three starts hasn’t been advantageous for the three-year left-hander.
-- The split stats aren’t too difficult to map in San Diego’s dugout as the bats have struggled in the first quarter of the season. This is a team who’s swinging wildly, making contact for just a .236 BA. Against southpaw pitchers, that BA number dips to .222, with just a .294 on base percentage.
-- In the first three games of the season between each other, the Pads were able to sweep their intrastate rival, outscoring the Giants, 19-7. Even as $1.07 ‘dogs versus Tim Lincecum (who’s coming off a 10 hit, five run pounding against the Mets), San Diego was able to pull in six runs.
-- San Fran is still 11-5 in its last 16 head-to-head meetings with the ‘over’ at 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
