It’s Memorial Day weekend. Time to start that BBQ, marinate the meats and get that remote ready because the rush of games is heading your way.
As for baseball, three afternoon interleague contests will get the action started on Saturday. Two of the three clashes will fit under the category of rivalry weekend. Instead of harping on the minor details of these betting opportunities let’s get right down to the action.
Kansas City at St. Louis – 1:10 p.m. EST
The Royals haven’t been a success story since winning the World Series in 1985. They’ve had a total of six winning seasons since then but with not one postseason appearance. It’s 99-112 career record in interleague play isn’t a far depiction of the overall trouble this club has experienced in recent history. But things look to be just a bit brighter this season despite a recent 3-7 slide in the last 10.
The attention will shift to St. Louis, a place that the Royals have actually been a solid bet. In the last 10 games, Kansas City has recorded seven wins. Three straight road wins to begin interleague play last year against the Cardinals had defense taking top priority.
That leads us to the Royals sending out Luke Hochevar (0-1, 16.88 ERA) to begin Game 2. In 2007, the right-hander spent 129 innings on the mound as a starter, getting touched for 84 runs in 22 games. His 5.51 ERA on a 6-12 record was tolerated given his lack of experience in the big leagues. In his first starts this season, Hochevar was torched for eight earned runs in Oakland. Versus Baltimore (not the most offensive savvy club in the league) on May 17, the six-foot-five slinger went only 3.1 innings after getting canned in the third, giving up three earned runs. In both outings, Hochevar has gone a combined 5.1 innings, throwing 118 pitches.
The Cards haven’t gotten off to a hot start from the plate. As a team, St. Louis is only spotting the ball for a .257 BA (NL batting average is at .258), and the month of May has seen a sharp decline in production. This month alone has bear witness to the Cardinals whiffing for a .220 BA.
The good news from an offensive standpoint is that the Redbirds have garnered success off conventional, right-handed pitching. In the 959 at bats versus righties, the lineup has produced a .272 BA accompanied by an NL second best, .452 slugging percentage.
Center fielder, Rick Ankiel has been hot in the last seven days (despite a 3-3 record) as his .375 BA with six RBIs stands testament to.
St. Louis has Kyle Lohse (3-3, 4.66) taking his turn in the rotation after coming off an ineffective, four inning outing versus Milwaukee on Monday. On 89 pitches, Lohse coughed up four runs on four hits as the Brewers rolled to an 8-4 win. Let’s be straight forward by saying the eight-year veteran has been down right horrible in the month of May. Lohse has now been clocked at giving up a total of 17 runs in his last 14.1 innings of work!
In regards to this matchup, Lohse has been involved in an extensive 18 starts versus Kansas City in his career. A 5-5 record in those starts has given way to a mortal 4.26 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP and 5.8 strikeouts per nine (1.73 strike to ball ratio).
Giving credit to the defense aforementioned at the top of this preview, the ‘under’ is 6-3 in the last nine head-to-head meetings. And thanks to the Cards lackluster offense this season, the ‘under’ is 7-2 in their last nine overall games. K.C. enters the weekend with a smoking 11-3 record in the last 14 interleague contests.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Yankees – 4:10 p.m. EST
Depending on what region your from and the team(s) you root for, this pairing of clubs can be considered the marquee matchup of the weekend. Having last met in 2006 (Yanks went 2-1 in that series), the Yankees own a 7-3 edge versus the Phillies dating back to Game 3 in 1999.
Despite a bullpen still tossing up grapefruits, New York has been on fire. This is a club that taken nine of the last 10, scoring 6.6 runs per game (outscoring opponents 59-29 during the stretch), batting around the lineup for a .281 BA in the last seven days and pounding away for 113 RBIs at home this season (wind or calm conditions).
That bullpen mentioned briefly is a source of trouble. While the Yankees’ batting order has been able to crank in runs on a consistent basis, the relief core is currently ranked at the bottom of the league. This is a group of arms producing an unsightly, 5.21 ERA on the year. Just two pitchers logging in double-digit innings on the mound have gone on to rack up an ERA at 3.00 or below (closer Mariano Rivera and reliever Alfredo Aceves). There’s no doubt that this group has been overworked as it ranks ninth overall with 134.2 innings logged in. Speaking of Marino Rivera, giving up five homers on the season ties his season high since being converted to the closing spot.
Pitching hasn’t been Philadelphia’s strong suit as well. A 5.33 ERA on the season, .288 BAA and a 5.01 ERA in May are just the tip of this problematic ice burg. But its been quite a different story at the plate.
The Phillies aren’t 22-14-3 on the ‘over’ just because of their pitching problems. This is a team shelling the ball for an NL leading, 56 home runs. On the road, a .280 BA has led to scoring 6.6 runs per game. That in turn has given totals backers reason to celebrate. The ‘over’ is a blistering 14-4-1 on the road this season and 5-2 in the last seven games away from home.
The pitching matchup will have the Yanks’ Andy Pettitte (4-1, 4.18) facing off against Philly’s J.A. Happ (2-0, 2.49). The best part about this matchup is the lefty angle both slingers will bring to this afternoon contest.
The edge goes to New York in the matchup despite Happ surrendering not one run in six relief appearances. The Phillies decided enough was enough with Chan Ho Park in the rotation and thus Happ now finds himself in final fifth starting spot.
And getting back to that edge, the Yanks have crushed southpaw pitchers. A .307 BA and .527 slugging percentage are accompanied by a fourth best, 17 long balls. So when books opened this contest with a run total of 11, why should we even be remotely surprised?
The ‘over’ is 9-3 in the Phillies’ last 12 games as an underdog. Sportsbetting.com has placed New York as the $1.65 home favorite in Game 2.
The Yankees own the best record in interleague play at 123-87, just two games above Oakland whose 123-89.
Texas Tangle
-- Bodog.com has opened the books by installing the Rangers as a $1.25 visiting favorite. A total of 10 runs has been placed up on the board.
-- Texas is coming off a three straight defeats in Detroit for which the club was outscored 13-6. Being installed as a $1.22 visiting favorite in Game 1 of that series, books decided to curb the enthusiasm, setting the Rangers as $1.58 ‘dogs in Game 2 and $1.28 underdogs in the third and final game off the series.
-- What has been consistent is the ‘under’ cashing in on five straight (ranging from 8 ½ to 10 ½-run totals. The ‘under’ in the last 12 games has been on fire at a current, 10-2 ride.
-- The Rangers plan to send in starting pitcher Scott Feldman (2-0, 4.04). Feldman has three quality starts in five outings. His last three starts have witnessed no more then two earned runs surrendered. And something else to watch out for; Feldman’s five starts this season have all been ‘under’ plays.
-- The Astros are -1.97 units despite pulling off a 6-4 performance in the last 10. The club has been consistent in terms of ranking at the bottom of the league in both offense and defense. Houston is batting .266 and bringing in only 4.38 runs per game while the pitching staff has been pounded for a 4.66 ERA.
-- Right-handed starter Brian Moehler (1-2, 7.71) has his scheduled start on Saturday. What’s disturbing about his starts (much like the rest of his teammates in the rotation) is righty bats pegging Moehler for a .500 BA and an OPS of 1.27. And an 0-1 record with an 8.31 ERA in two home starts this season should be a red flag when wagering on this contest.
-- Despite the pitching deficiencies in Houston, the ‘Stros are 4-2 on the ‘under’ in their last six. What could be more convincing for that totals wager is the ‘under’ at 19-7 in the Rangers’ last 26 overall, the ‘under’ at 7-1-1 in Houston’s last nine interleague games and the ‘under’ at 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head games.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
