If you’re the Padres, Yankees or the Tigers then things are looking good as we flip the script to mid-week matchups. But if you’re dropping games like the Cubs or struggling to find the formula that made a club like the Blue Jays successful then maybe its time to change strategy.
Either way you look at it there are teams out there that can appeal to backers or those gamblers looking for the sharpest fade play. Wednesday will bring with it several games that could help fatten our wallets.
Toronto at Baltimore – 1:35 p.m. ET
The Blue Jays are experiencing what can best be described as road woes. Getting swept in three-game series between both Boston and Atlanta, Toronto is hoping that it can stop the bleeding before it finds itself digging a deeper ditch.
The good news for those looking to squeeze out some bucks, look no further then dominant right-hander, Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.52 ERA). The career, 3.48 ERA slinger hasn’t lost a game against Baltimore since May 4, 2005. But more importantly Halladay is 28-12 since Opening Day of last year, hasn’t allowed more then one earned run in his last four starts and has pitched seven innings or more in every start this season.
While Halladay has been spot on, let’s not overlook Toronto’s offensive output. During the ace’s trips to the mound bats inside the box have been outstanding, producing a team high, 6.8 runs per start. But not so fast. During the eight-game free fall, the Blue Jays have scratched together just 1.6 runs per game overall. That's no where near the 5.7 runs per game produced during the first 41 games of the season.
Despite the Jays dropping eight straight, looking for value in this match could be a difficult proposition (in-fact a price of -160 has been manufactured by most books in this contest). In his last three road outings, Halladay has seen prices of -147, -152 and -168 in ascending order.
Toronto is 19-3 in Halladay’s last 22 starts versus Baltimore.
In terms of totals, Camden Yards has played a role in low scoring games. It’s Park Factor on the year is sitting at .910 (as a refresher, above 100 is a hitters park and below 100 favors pitchers). In support, the Orioles are now 10-5 on the ‘under’ in their last 15 home stands.
Baltimore is attempting to recover from a damaging road stint for which the club churned out a 4-6 record in its last 10 away from home. Lefty starter Rich Hill (1-0, 3.18) is coming off a no-decision in Washington last Friday, allowing three hits and two earned runs in 5.2 innings. Right-handers are teeing off on Hill for a .290 BA, but his command of the strike zone has been steadily improving. This will be Hill’s first career start versus the Blue Jays.
A total of 8 1/2-runs has been installed.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 7:05 p.m. ET
It’s been almost two full days since the Rays squandered a 10-4 lead heading into the ninth inning against the Tribe. There’s no question that this loss should weigh heavily on the club in the near future. But should we be surprised over Monday’s scenario?
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is a shadow of what it was in 2008. Through 47 games, the pen is 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA. This hurts backers’ wallets as the Rays last three losses have been determined by exactly one run. The last seven defeats have been decided by no more then three runs in any one contest.
Having faced off five times already this season, Tampa Bay leads the head-to-head action, 3-2. The Rays have been installed as favorites in every game this season. A contest played on May 16 witnessed the highest price tag in this exchange. Tampa closed the boards as $1.75 favorites, eventually taking that contest 4-2 thanks to Matt Garza giving up just five hits.
A streak that just can’t be ignored is the Rays going ‘over’ the total in six straight and 12 times in the last 14. What we have is a team scoring 7.4 and giving up 5.6 runs per game during this stretch.
Combine the above with the fact that Cleveland is 7-3 on the ‘over’ in the last 10 and expectations for books to adjust the opening total are expected. In the last five head-to-head meetings, the ‘over’ is 4-1 (and 8-4 in the last 12).
One factor that can’t be ignored is Tampa losing second baseman Akinori Iwamura for the season. His .310 BA and 16 RBIs will be missed. Iwamura was injured during a 5-4 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. Can Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist and/or Reid Brignac come close to producing offensive numbers that Iwamura departed with? That answer seems like an unlikely ‘no’ at this point and time.
The pitching matchup in this contest will have Tampa Bay sending out Andy Sonnanstine (3-4, 6.60) onto the hill. Next in line for the Indians will be left-hander, David Huff (0-1, 17.55). Huff has been torched in only two starts this season, allowing 13 runs off 14 hits in a total of 6.2 innings.
The Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 meetings in Cleveland.
San Diego at Arizona – 9:40 p.m. ET
Based on Tuesday night’s results, the Padres will either be attempting to stretch their winning streak to 12 games or, at the very least, challenging themselves to continue building on positive momentum.
Jake Peavy (4-5, 3.48) is slated to toe the slab for San Diego after last week’s news of a possible trade to the White Sox fell through the floor. Peavy says he's very much comfortable tossing in the Bay area. The ace of the staff is now 2-1 in his last three starts, covering his team by allowing an average of 2.3 runs pre game. His 4-5 overall record isn’t much of a surprise, especially based on the fact that an offense batting a league worst, .234 has supplied their No. 1 starter with 2.9 runs of support per start.
Surprisingly, Peavy hasn’t had much success against the Diamondbacks. In his 27 career starts versus Arizona, Peavy is 11-12, garnering a 4.71 ERA. San Diego has opened holes in the pockets of backers by going 4-9 in the ace’s last 13 starts when pitted against the D-Backs.
Despite a 5-2 performance in its last seven, Arizona finds itself six games below the .500 mark. A 10-16 home record has been damaging for divisional placement (this coming from a team that was 50-31 at home at the end of the ’07 season). Batting one point (.235) higher then San Diego isn’t something to celebrate. And a bullpen tossing softballs for a 5.07 ERA is embarrassing.
In just three of the last 10 games has the Diamondbacks passed through the window as betting favorites. If being installed as a $1.60 underdog against Florida on May 19 isn’t enough evidence to deem this club “in trouble” then losing as $1.46 favorites in Oakland should take the cake.
Arizona is expected to pencil in Billy Buckner (1-0, 6.35) into the rotation on Wednesday.
The Padres are 5-1 in their last six games versus the D-Backs dating back to August of last year.
Most books have placed San Diego as a $1.52 visiting favorite, supporting that the expectations for Peavy are quite high. The run total can be had for nine runs, making this the third straight head-to-head contest that the same total has been set.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
