The skinny, five-gamer on Thursday may not pack an A-bomb worth of continuous action, but that doesn’t mean we’ll just skip our wagering opportunities. The fact is three games in the AL and two more in the NL will give us plenty of time to dissect what means most on the bottom dollar.
Focusing on the first of a pair of National League contests, the L.A. Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will get the bats swinging and the balls slinging at 8:05 p.m. EDT. This will be Game 1 of a long, four-game set.
Setting the table, it’s ok to admit if you thought the Dodgers would have trouble acclimating themselves to the absence of power slugger, Manny Ramirez (.348 BA/20 RBIs/6 HRs). I did! Since being tossed from the league for 50 games, L.A. has continued to march on. The club is 11-7 without the star right fielder. But here’s where the supplement can be found.
The Dodgers are not only pulling in a league second best, 254 runs, but an on base percentage of .374 is unheard of when compared to this club's prior history. While the entire National League is hovering around a .258 BA, L.A. has surpassed that by posting up a figure of .291. And the offensive numbers go on and on.
As for Thursday expect the Dodgers to shove Randy Wolf (2-1, 3.02 ERA) out onto the field in hopes of earning his third win of the season. But although L.A. is a smoking 4-1 at home when Wolf takes the mound, the club’s road performance stands out at 2-3. The most surprising statistic has seen Wolf surrendering one or no runs at all in five of his 10 starts this season. His record during these performances; just 2-0!
With Wolf being a natural left-handed hurler, the Cubs will be hard pressed to manufacture anything from that side of the plate. Southpaw bats have made contact for a .093 BA with a .329 OPS. Career wise, Wolf has been able to hold fellow lefty bats to .226 BA. And for the month of May, the six-footer out of Pepperdine University has accumulated a 19-10 record followed by a 3.25 ERA (the best month of pitching in his career for that matter).
Chicago is emerging from its longest losing streak in the last three years. The Cubs managed to take a 6-1 ‘W’ away from Pittsburgh after the game was called at the end of the fifth inning due to inclement weather.
Four games out of first and 9-14 on the road, Chicago will entrust Randy Wells (0-1, 1.50) with the game ball. Wells has had the opportunity to start in three games this season as Rich Harden (back) departed to the 15-day DL on May 23. The problem hasn’t been Wells as two of those three appearances have seen the righty toss gems, giving up not one run on May 8 and 16 outings. Some of the blame can be applied to an offense giving their starter a skimp, 2.7 runs of support per start.
Despite books listing the Cubs as $1.22 underdogs in Wells first start in Milwaukee (May 8 in which they lost 3-2), most spots adjusted accordingly by placing Chi-Town as $1.06 and ‘chalky’ $1.60 favorites in his next two congruent trips to the hill. Despite the vote of confidence from the books, the Cubs are 1-2 when Wells is scheduled to take the field (that’s a -166 financial loss if making $100 wagers).
L.A. will bring with it a 5-1 record when Wolf toes the slab in Game 1 of a series and a 12-4 performance in Wolf’s last 16 starts with four days of rest. As it stands, Sportsbook.com has opened the Cubbies as $1.15 favorites.
Atlanta at Arizona – 9:40 p.m. EDT
Both of these teams have had their fare share of ups and downs despite the premature age of the season. And now both clubs are beginning to embrace success, at least for the time being. Opening the books as a $1.20 favorite, Arizona will attempt to take its eighth win in the last 11 games. Bodog.com has set the total at eight runs.
First off, there’s no denying the improvement on offense for the Diamondbacks. Hitting .236 on the season and crossing home plate for 195 runs (23rd worst), Arizona finds itself with 46 runs in just the last eight games (third best in the league), despite pluggin in a .253 BA. During this time frame, Mark Reynolds leads the team with 10 RBIs while Justin Upton and Chris Snyder have combined for 11 RBIs.
And it’s not difficult to see that offense has been the difference between wins and losses. When the D-Backs have scored six or more runs this season they’re 11-4 in the record books (3-1 in just the last four games when scoring six or more). This is not to mention the 14-1 ‘over’ record when scoring six or more runs at a clip as well.
A shaky Dan Haren (3-4, 2.57), who hasn’t been credited with a win since May 2, will attempt to give his Arizona ball club a quality start. In the last three starts, Haren has self imploded, allowing 11 totals runs. Five of those runs came in his last appearance alone in which he coughed up a career high, four long balls. Books have continued to support Haren. All nine of his starts have been set with the Diamondbacks as the favorite (ranging from a low of -118 to a high of -177).
Derek Lowe (6-2, 3.45) is on a role for Atlanta, sitting in the statistical column posting seven quality starts, five wins in his last six trips to the rubber and has surrendered two or fewer runs in four of his last six appearances. A 4-1 record on the road have been followed by a 3.58 ERA with batter swinging over the ball for a .217 BA. Oh, and Lowe will be getting the nod for the start on Thursday.
In the last 10, the Braves have seen a spike in offensive production, posting up 6.3 runs per game. This coming from a unit that has posted 4.3 runs per game on the year, 23rd worst in the Majors. But these numbers can be misinterpreted as Atlanta has been shutout inside the batter box in three of the last five defeats.
The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. Atlanta has had the upper hand in these matchups, taking a 5-2 edge in the last seven clashes against Arizona.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
