Sunday will end the weekend on a high note as 15 games crowd the betting rotation from coast to coast. Specifically, three series will be going to Game 4s as Baltimore-Detroit, Dodgers-Cubs and Arizona-Atlanta all wrap up their extended sets.
So off to the diamond we go in search of pitching matchups and other tools to use for a leg up at the window.
Baltimore at Detroit – 1:35 p.m. EDT
After five straight wins, could the Orioles be finding a groove in the hopes of removing themselves from the basement in the AL East? Not so fast. But it’s still worth examining what Baltimore is doing right and if the momentum can carry into the next week.
A 7-1 run through the last eight can be credited to a pitching staff holding opponents to scoring 3.4 runs per game. Between both starters and pen both units have held there own for a 3.38 ERA supported by a 1.30 WHIP. These are major improvements over the same staff that chalked up a 5.75 ERA in the month of April.
Starting for the O’s on Sunday will be relatively obscure, Jason Berken (1-0, 3.60 ERA). The 210-pound right-hander pitched effectively in his first start in the Majors, giving up two runs off seven hits in a win over Toronto on Tuesday. A sixth round selection in the 2006 June draft, Berken’s four seamer clocks in the mid-90’s, but an improving slider and two seam fastball are all weapons in this kid’s arsenal (ok, at 25 he's not a kid but you get the point). Duties with Triple-A Norfolk Tides this year had Berken going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 25.2 innings.
Should it be a coincidence that six of the last seven wins have been accompanied by ‘under’ plays? Not really, especially when the pitching game has been so spot on. Even with the bats in the lineup generating 5.9 runs per game, books have decided to place the total in the last two games at 10 ½-runs consecutively.
From taking seven straight to dropping five of its last seven, the Tigers are once again looking for answers. Edwin Jackson (4-3, 2.58) has improved his game, walking a career low, 0.26 per inning. Despite dropping a tough loss in Kansas City (6-1) in his last start, Jackson still has the opportunity to spearhead the season. In his limited, three career starts (five total appearances) versus Baltimore, Jackson has amassed a 2-1 record but has been crushed for a 8.31 ERA. So what we have here is mixed feelings. Despite this, the six-year vet could be having a turn around season.
The ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings in Baltimore.
Atlanta at Arizona – 4:10 p.m. EDT
The Braves will place rookie slinger, Kris Medlen (0-2, 9.72) on the mound in what they hope will push them closer to second place, Philadelphia in the NL East. Medlen has been roughed up in his two starts this season. Against Colorado, he was touched for five earned runs off just three hits, while a loss in San Francisco netted four runs off four hits in 5.1 innings. Fellow righties are hitting just .176 off Medlen but southpaw bats have struck it rich, knocking the ball at a .286 BA.
Books initially set a price in Medlen’s first start against the Rockies at -140 (bet $140 to make $100) but quickly changed their tune. Against the Giants, the price was dramatically adjusted to +157 (bet $100 to make $157).
It will be righty, Max Scherzer (2-3, 3.38) who gets starting duties on Sunday. Having won two of his last three starts, Scherzer plus home field advantage equals books installing the Diamondbacks as much as a $1.70 favorite.
The good news for Arizona backers is the offense has given Scherzer close to five runs of support per start. The bad news is that the D-Backs are not too inspiring during Scherzer’s starts, taking the small 5-4 edge on the season. In five of his last six appearances to the mound, Scherzer has allowed no more then three runs.
The ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 p.m. EDT
ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball will conclude this week when L.A. attempts to cash in at the window as a $1.10 visiting underdog. The Cubbies are catching a -130 price tag (bet $130 to make $100) in this matchup while the total has yet to open up on the board.
The Dodgers’ success has been well documented without Manny Ramirez in the clubhouse, and with good reason. The lineup in the last 10 games has been scorching the ball, batting around for a .305 BA. Equally effective is the success from both sides of the plate. Right-handed hitters are cashing in with a .279 BA on the season while their left-handed counterparts have brought in a .273 BA. Pitchers are allowing 3.7 runs per game and the bullpen has held it down, earning itself a 3.38 ERA.
Newly acquired hurler, Eric Milton (1-0, 3.00) from Cincinnati will get the start as his last two appearances have been relatively solid outings. In a 7-1 win over an anemic Colorado club, Milton was able to hold the opponent to scoring just one run on seven hits in five innings.
The Cubs will go with Sean Marshall (3-3, 3.70) in Sunday’s fourth and final game of the series. In his last four trips to the dirt, Marshall has been able to bring home the money by going 3-1. Giving up 1.3 runs per game during the stretch has been just enough reason to get the job done. Because an offense giving their pitcher a mortal, three runs per game on the season isn’t the make or break figure in a win or loss.
The Cubs are just 3-9 in their last 12 games. A 3-1 performance in the last four could be indication of the club turning it around but it’s still too early for us to know for sure.
Books have not fooled around with Chicago, placing totals figures as low as seven to 7 ½ runs in four of the last eight games. Despite the bottom low totals, the Cubs have managed to hit the ‘under’ in four straight, making for a 9-2 record on the ‘under’ in the last 11. Chicago is also 7-3 on the ‘under’ in its last 10 home stands. That’s what batting .236 in the same stretch can do to a team.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings when playing in Wrigley Field.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
