Let’s begin the week off on the right foot. Only three games in the American League will be supported by six being played in the NL. The Yankees and Indians will get national exposure on ESPN at 7:05 p.m. EDT. And that’s we’re will begin this installment of another MLB preview.
N.Y. Yankees (29-20, +88) at Cleveland (21-30, -980) – 7:05 p.m. EDT
It’s hard to pick apart a team that’s 14-4 in its last 18. But that doesn’t mean everything has been spot on. New York’s bullpen is still having problems executing on a consistent basis. Take the pen’s 5.17 ERA on the season. A 4.46 pen ERA in the last 10 games has been a minor improvement. The reason we’re not seeing the Yankees suffering from these pitching woes is an offense shelling opposing teams for a .281 BA, 148 RBIs and a league leading 46 long balls in May alone. What it all boils down to is a run margin of 3.9 runs per game in the last 14 wins.
Joba Chamberlain is slated to start on Monday. His last trip to the mound was in Texas last week, and it came in the wake of being yanked out of a contest versus Baltimore with a bruised shin from a comebacker. In the Texas spot, Joba pitched in only four innings (once again a product of the pitch count imposed on him), giving up three runs on four hits. It was the third start in which he received a no decision. The good news for those deciding to back the Pinstripes is that New York is 5-3 in Chamberlain’s last eight appearances (but only 2-3 when on the road this year).
In the home team dugout is an Indians club trying to harvest the same results it had in a four-game sweep over Tampa Bay last week. Southpaw pitcher Jeremy Sowers will look to get his second win of the season as he goes up against a team who’s been slapping left-handers. The Yankees have laid the hammer down for a .313 BA, 59 RBIs and .383 on base percentage versus left-handed pitching.
Sowers’ all three starts have seen the ‘over’ cash in. Maybe giving up seven runs against Boston and five versus the White Sox played a big role in hitting those ‘overs’. However, in his last no decision appearance, Sowers was near perfect for five innings as Tampa worked for three hits and no runs. It was the nine unanswered runs by Cleveland that once again tore the books’ 9 ½-set total to shreds.
In their six meetings thus far this season, the ‘over’ is 4-2. Sportsbetting.com has opened an early run total of 10 ½. New York is catching a -155 (bet $155 to make $100) price despite playing on the road in this contest.
When the Yanks have posted up seven or more runs in a given contest an ‘over’ record at 15-1-1 has been produced. When the total has been listed at 10 ½ runs, New York has gone ‘over’ 42 percent of the time.
Cincinnati (26-22, +633) at St. Louis (29-20, +615)
Opening up the books as a $1.20 favorite, St. Louis will be returning home from its short, six-game road trip. Eight wins in the last 11 games have been attributed to magnificent pitching.
The Cardinals have allowed 1.4 runs per game during the 11-game stretch. On the season, a 3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .316 on base percentage allowed are all ranked at the top of the statistical list in both the AL and NL. Starter Chris Carpenter was the beacon of the team’s defensive performance, having gone four starts without allowing an earned run (until an appearance against the Giants on Saturday).
Thanks to such stiff appearances on the mound, St. Louis has been able to cash in on the ‘under’ 13 times in the last 17 games. Starting slinger Todd Wellemeyer will attempt to get the job done on Monday. His last two starts have been a success, garnering two straight wins in both attempts. Wellemeyer’s 1.64 WHIP is a bit high and batters are going to town with a .305 BA. The problem for bettors is the Cards’ 2-8 record in Wellemeyer’s last 10 home starts versus a team with a winning record.
The Reds will look to counter when it places Edison Volquez in the starting role. Cincinnati has supplied their slinger with 5.4 runs of support per game. The Reds are 13-3 in Volquez’s last 16 road starts. The problem has been a bit of inconsistency and injury as Volquez is returning from the 15-day DL. In his last start versus St. Louis, the right-hander was torched for seven runs on six hits in 6.2 innings. Off six plus days of rest, Volquez is 3-7 with a 6.04 ERA.
The ‘under’ is 13-6-1 in the Reds last 20 road games. The Cardinals are 13-8 when installed as a favorite of $1.20 or more this year.
Philadelphia (27-20, +313) at San Diego (24-25, +243) – 10:05 p.m. EDT
It was only a matter of time for the winning streak to end and at 10 straight. San Diego just couldn’t sustain the magic. Now 2-3 since their winning ways ended, the Padres return home as $1.05 underdogs versus the Phillies.
San Diego will look to grab the win when Kevin Correia starts for the 10th time this season. Correia record stands at 1-3 after taking an ‘L’ in Arizona last Tuesday. The Diamondbacks were able to get to the righty for six earned runs on nine hits. If you’re weighing your options on betting the home team here, be aware that Correia has held batters down to a .262 BA versus .293 on the road. Also, his lone win came at home versus Cincinnati on May 15.
Phillies’ pitching is still suspect at best, coughing up 4.5 runs per game in the last 10 while concocting a 22nd worst, 4.68 ERA in May. And while you may have missed the train for the time being, Philadelphia has been on a torrent ‘under’ rage despite the pitching woes. We’re talking about the ‘under’ going 9-2 (seven straight through this run) in the last 11.
Big man, Joe Blanton will compete for his fourth win of the season. His 6.14 ERA has been in the making due to giving up four or more runs in five of his nine starts. And that ERA could be higher if it wasn’t for Blanton tossing a seven inning gem against Florida (who can’t hit to save their lives by the way – batting .243 with just 117 runs in May) last Tuesday.
The Padres enter this game up 4.36 units on the run line for a 27-21 record. San Diego is also a solid 17-5 in its last 22 home games. In-fact, the Pads are the No. 1 team in pitching at home this season with a 2.93 ERA and .217 BAA testament to that. Then again, it’s no secret that PETCO Park ranks the lowest in Park Factor at 0.688, easily the best pitchers friend in the league.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
