There’s nothing fancy or complicated in this Friday’s baseball preview. We’re bringing you the cold hard facts in several matchups slated to take place.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees – 7:05 p.m. EDT
The Rays were 35-24 at this time last season. Now a shell of itself from just a year ago, Tampa Bay will get the opportunity to build on its 3-2 series record versus the Yankees in ’09.
Back on May 6 and 7, the Rays cornered New York on the road as $1.54 and $1.57 underdogs. In Game 1, Tampa starter Andy Sonnanstine (4-5, 7.07 ERA) held the Pinstripes at bay, tossing 7.1 innings, giving up six hits and two runs on 99 pitches. But those performances have been few and far between as Sonnanstine has found himself coughing up five or more earned runs in five of 11 starts.
But the pitcher of interest in this matchup will be left-hander, David Price (1-0, 3.00). The Rays decided that the 23-year-old was ready for the big show again, thus recalling him from Durham on May 25. Since returning to the Majors, Price has begun to ease back into the rotation. It was last Saturday against Minnesota that the southpaw went 5.2 innings, sacrificing just one run off five hits. But 11 strikeouts in that outing is one reason why Tampa has such high hopes for the future.
Vegasinsider.com professional handicapper, Brian Edwards does advise to exercise caution before deciding to make a wager on the Rays in this spot. “Bettors should keep in mind, that Joe Maddon has Price on a pitch count that he won’t stray from very often and certainly not at this early stage of the year,” he said. “In other words, you have to consider Tampa Bay’s bullpen in all plays involving Price because there’s a good chance Maddon will be turning to the ‘pen by the sixth inning in Price’s starts.”
Tampa has made some improvement in the pen as a 4.00 relief ERA ranks 11th in the league followed by a high ranking, .321 on base percentage allowed.
Offense has been the name of the game for New York. Specifically versus left-handers, the Yanks have kicked it into overdrive, battering the ball for a .310 BA and bringing in 83 RBIs. New York is now 4-0 in its last four games versus left-handed starters while a 5-1 record in the last six Game 1 appearances lends itself to more betting support.
Of course we can’t leave out C.C. Sabathia’s (5-3, 3.46) scheduled start in this one. The inning eating big man has thrown an average of 111.7 pitches his last six trips to the mound. A 4-0 record in his last five starts is exactly what the Yanks were hoping for when signing C.C. to the mega contract during the offseason.
Edwards said, “I don’t think bettors want to lay the expensive straight price (-185ish) in this spot. If you’re thinking Yankees, I think you have to go the run-line route at around even-money (or for a small ‘plus’ payout).”
Maybe the most impressive part of this matchup is Sabathia’s unconscious 7-1 record accompanied by a 2.44 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 11 career starts versus the Rays.
Sportsbook.com has opened the board by placing New York as a $1.85 home favorite. A total of 10 runs has been listed. The total storm that began brewing in Yankee Stadium to begin the season has quieted down some. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last five home games. Will it last for long?
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The Reds need to make things happen down nine games in the Central. What better way to close out the week then to welcome division rival, Chicago into town? Bodog.com has opened this contest at -140 (bet $140 to make $100) in favor of the visiting Cubs.
Chicago has been on red alert when traveling these days. This is a club that’s dropped seven of its last eight road games. The offense has been putrid as a team, .234 BA away from home combined with a bullpen topping out at a 5.62 ERA is clear evidence. But could salvation be close as Ryan Dempster (4-3, 4.48) is slated to start in this one?
Dempster is coming off a solid, seven inning win against the Dodgers on Saturday (giving up just three hits in a shutout performance). But peering deeper into the stats reveals Dempster’s shortcomings. In-fact the two-time All-Star slinger has never claimed a victory at Great American Ballpark. In 23 games, 10 which have been starts, Dempster is 0-6 with a bloated, 6.53 ERA. Working for 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings is about the only hook that the Cubs’ pitcher can hang his hat on.
Great American Ballpark has facilitated a 15-10 ‘over’ record on the season. A Park Factor of 1.192 (PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) ) is basically telling us that the field closely resembles the action in a pinball game. As a reference point, Coors Field has a PF of 1.401 while the most pitcher friendly park in the MLB, PERTCO Park owns a PF of 0.727. Total betters; assume the position.
Despite being swept in Milwaukee, Cinci is 2-1 versus fellow rival, St. Louis (pending the outcome of Thursday’s contest). But why the 5-2 ‘under’ run in the last seven? It’s not too hard to conceive this fact based on a batting order struggling to locate the ball for a .239 BA while bringing in 4.2 runs per game. While Brandon Philips continues to have an on par year (batting .290 with 40 RBIs), missing Joey Votto to an ear infection has been a huge loss to the entire offensive production. Votto has been red hot, hitting for a .357 BA this year with 33 RBIs.
The Reds’ starter Micah Owings (3-6, 5.10) has been disappointing to say the least. Catching criticism about being a better hitter then pitcher, Owings has been annihilated for 13 runs in the last three outings. An 0-3 record in his last four starts just adds insult to injury here. Where Owings has fallen flat on his face has been right-handed bats tagging on a .364 BA. In his 10 games this year, the righty has been installed as an underdog seven times.
The ‘over’s is 7-2 in Owning’s last nine starts.
Extra Innings
-- Veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.75) and the Phillies has been listed as $1.20 visiting underdogs. Now that the 250-win mark is in the books, Moyer can continue being scrutinized because of a 1-4 slump in his last five starts. The southpaw has been touched for a .339 BAA, a .356 BAA on the road and has coughed up at least one long ball in nine of his last 10 games. In six of his last starts, opponents have teed off with nine long balls.
-- Opposite side of the field will have Eric Milton (2.0, 3.14) taking the ball for the Dodgers. In just three starts, Milton has crushed fellow southpaw bats for a .077 BAA. But orthodox bats (right-handers) have been a nightmare as a .326 BAA is indicative of.
-- L.A.’s starting pitcher, Milton is going to have to combat a Phillies club that’s pulled off six straight wins (five as the favorite), is in the midst of using momentum from a 15-4 record in the last 19 and is playing stiff defense as an 11-3-1 ‘under’ performance in the last 15 demonstrates.
-- In their last 12 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia is 9-3 versus going 2-6 in the last eight trips to Los Angeles.
-- Gametime is set to begin at 10:10 p.m. EDT.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
