As I was told some time ago, haste makes waste. In relation to betting on baseball, it will be beneficial to us if we take our time analyzing pitching matchups, offensive stats and anything else that can aid in our decision making process.
Saturday brings with it a loaded, 15-game card. But what stands out on this day is the drop in quality of pitchers expected compared to Friday’s loaded talent. Friday was headlined by C.C. Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander or Jair Jurrjens playing catch. But the lineup we’re concerned about will be categorized by competitive prices based on the talent taking the mound.
San Francisco at Florida – 6:10 p.m. EDT
Despite the Marlins dropping -3.07 units on the money line and -4.63 units on the run line, a 7-4 mini turnaround in their last 11 came at the heals of being placed as the favorite seven times. In just the last four home games versus Milwaukee (going 3-1 in that series), Florida began the series as a $1.11 favorite while taking Game 4 as much as a $1.60 fave. On top of the recent success is the ‘Fish hitting the run line five times in the last six victories.
Florida won’t have the easiest of times at home when the Giants take the field. San Francisco has lowered its ERA down to 2.89 in the last 10 games while the offense has turned up the heat as a .298 BA is evidence of (fourth best in the Majors). Thanks to Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn, the club is 9-4 on the ‘over’ in the last 13 home stands.
Toeing the slab for the Giants will be third-year pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez (2-4, 4.75 ERA). A win against Atlanta two starts ago resulted in Sanchez’s first victory in the span of one month plus. In his last seven starts, the lefty is 1-3 but only coughing up 2.9 runs per game. It’s been the 3.1 runs of support per game and a team, .257 BA from April to May that’s been damaging to not only Sanchez but the club as a whole.
Andrew Miller, gearing up for his seventh start of the season, might be 0-1 in his last three starts after coming off the 15-day DL on May 16 but allowing 2.3 runs per game in 17.1 innings once again displays the inadequate offense showing up to the park. But with the Giants struggling to bring home the bacon against southpaw pitchers, scoring a second to worst 44 runs, it’s not hard to envision the Marlins holding this game close on the scoreboard.
Despite the pitching vitals, San Francisco is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Florida. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
Arizona at San Diego – 10:05 p.m. EDT
The Padres have had a sleeper hold in this series, owning the 6-2 edge in the last eight head-to-head matchups. But 10 straight home wins may have run its course as San Diego dropped three straight to Philadelphia this week.
In-fact a 2-6 drop-off in the last eight shouldn’t be that much of a surprise. As baseball is a game of ups and downs through a long season, San Diego gave us indication that there would be more dark days then bright when it went 2-12 from Apr. 29 to May 14. Let’s be honest, when you’re a club batting .217 at home (.196 versus lefties) you’d be hard pressed to find a reason for winning.
And now with an Arizona club coming to town that’s batting .215 on the road this year, expect totals of seven or 7 ½ to become a regular occurrence. Add in the PETCO Park factor and a total no larger then eight has been set by books throughout the season. To begin the year against the Dodgers, books had gone as far as to list the total at 6 ½.
Five quality starts in his last six starts couldn’t have been predicted coming from a pitcher who went 0-3 in his first six starts. Arizona’s Max Scherzer (2-4, 4.47) is 2-1 in his last three trips to the diamond. Scherzer’s last start on May 31 ended in disaster after getting pegged for eight runs off 10 hits in 3.2 innings.
San Diego is planning to counter with second-year slinger, John Geer (1-1, 5.44). The relatively unknown Geer has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven of nine times in both starting and relief spots. Batters have struggled against Geer when he’s been pitching at home versus on the road (.253 BAA at home versus .283 BAA on the road).
The Diamondbacks are 2-7 in Scherzer’s last nine starts.
Extra Innings
-- Texas and Boston meet up for a scheduled nine innings of play at 7:10 p.m. EDT. With lefty Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65) on the hill, most books have already set a steep price of -180 in favor of the Red Sox.
-- The Rangers enter this foray harboring a disturbing 9-34 record in the last 43 meetings played in Boston. Another lefty in Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33) will have to contend against the Red Sox who have fired off .479 slugging percentage and have brought in a second best, 89 runs versus southpaw slingers. With the offensive loaded Rangers only giving Holland four runs of support per game the +172 price is warranted.
-- The Red Sox are coming off a four-game stretch for which the bats devasted Toronto and Detroit for 7.3 runs per game. And despite this the total went an even 2-2. In the longer run, Boston is 7-3 on the ‘under’ in its last 10 games and 16-6-1 in the last 23 games. This coming from a team who’s bullpen ERA is now ranked No. 1 in the league at 2.82.
-- The Sox starter Lester has been off and on, giving up no more then one run in two of four starts. However, those other two appearances witnessed Lester giving up five runs per game for a combined 10 runs.
-- David Ortiz is on a three-game hitting streak for Boston despite going 5-for-41 in the last 10 games (.122 BA).
-- Texas is also just 9-24 in its last 34 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the Rangers last 12 road games and 17-7-1 in the last 25 overall.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
