When we say that the baseball season is a marathon it’s no joke. Most teams have 30-plus games left on the schedule until the apex (All-Star game) of the mid-season break is reached. But let’s not get ahead of our selves because beginning on Tuesday, multiple pairings between the Red Sox-Yankees and Phillies-Mets are expected to bring a whirl wind of fresh air through the betting window.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston – 7:10 p.m. EDT
Whether you can’t stand the hype that this matchup brings or you’re an avid supporter of either side there’s no denying the fact that this classic duel brings drama to what becomes an otherwise dull time of the year.
Boston’s (33-24, +307) next slinger in line for mound duties has Josh Beckett (6-2, 4.09 ERA) looking to pick up his seventh win. Despite a 4-0 record in his last six starts, Beckett suffered his worst outing this season in a 16-11 slugfest against the Yanks in Boston. The Apr. 25 defeat had the Pinstripes laying the lumber on Beckett’s ball for 10 hits and eight runs. But the shelling was short lived as a comeback win in the Bronx on May 5 had the right-hander going six innings while holding New York to scoring just three runs.
Beckett is 2-0 at home with a .236 BAA in ’09. The Red Sox are 4-1 in all five of their ace’s starts at Fenway. Most books haven’t taken much of a chance, installing Beckett anywhere from a $1.91 favorite to a season high, $2.70 favorite (versus Baltimore on Apr. 18, winning 6-4).
A.J. Burnett (4-2, 4.69) will represent New York (33-23, -25) in the leading defensive role. Coming off two wins against Texas in consecutive starts (giving up a combined three runs and 11 hits), Burnett’s 29 Ks in the last four outings has helped push the 10-year veteran into the No. 9 strikeout spot in the AL.
The sharp contrast in Burnett’s numbers can be found in the wins and losses department. During victories, the righty has been able to craft his pitches past batters for a .219 BAA, working for a 4.3 strikeout to ball ratio and receiving an outstanding 1.06 WHIP for his accomplishments. The bad is a 6.59 ERA, 1.7 strikeout to ball ratio and a 1.54 WHIP when taking the 'L'.
On the offensive front, Nick Swisher (.250 BA) seems to be spotting the ball with confidence. In the last six games, Swisher is 9-for-18 with six RBIs. This coming from a guy who tanked in May batting .150. Mark Teixeira (.286 BA) has also been the beacon of success, continuing his effective season, and generating seven RBIs in just the last week of alone.
The Red Sox will kickoff this three-game home stand harboring a perfect 5-0 performance in head-to-head matchups this season. Boston has been installed as the favorite in all but one game versus the Yanks this year. It was on May 5 that the Sox caught their bitter rival off balance yet again as $1.15 visiting underdogs. The total cleared the ‘over’ 9 ½ runs as Beckett struck out five and walked one in the 7-3 ‘W’.
Looking back at both starters, Beckett has had the ‘under’ cash in at 4-1 in his last five starts while Burnett is an ‘under’ machine in his last six at 4-1-1. The ‘under’ is 19-7-1 in Boston’s last 27. The Sox are also in control of a 9-3 advantage in their last 12 meetings against the Yankees spanning back to July of last year. During this stretch, Boston has brought in 6.8 runs per game.
One more point before we move on; take into account that the Red Sox are 9-2 when coming off a win in their prior contest (in the last 11 of these scenarios) against the Yankees.
Most books have opened Boston as a $1.35 home favorite with a total of 9 1/2-attached.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets – 7:10 p.m. EDT
The Mets (30-25, +101) are looking to make this their fourth win in five meetings against divisional rival, Philadelphia. And what better way to accomplish that feat then to send out your No. 1 pitcher to the mound.
Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00) is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He might not be entertaining the masses like Roy Holliday’s 10 wins have, but the lefty has done more then just a 7-3 record indicates.
Some of the problems Santana is facing stems from receiving 3.4 runs per game of support from the lineup. In the first six games of June, a team, .242 BA attached to 3.8 runs per game can’t be considered adequate at the Major League level. While Jeremy Reed and David Wright have began the month batting .475, eight players getting 10 or more at bats so far have rung in for a BA below the .235 mark!
Just once have books installed Santana as the underdog. That was back on May 22 in a 5-3 win over Boston as a $1.07 visiting ‘dog. Unfortunately for backers on the Mets during these starts, a minute profit of +74 units has been offset thanks to losing prices ranging on the high end of the board (from a low -125 to a high, -283 against Washington).
Coming off a loss this season, Santana is 3-0. His most recent defeat was recorded way back last week-Tuesday-when lost to Pittsburgh even after giving up three runs on an 85 pitch count. More importantly is that New York's rotation was involved in a rainout and off-day. As a result, Santana hasn't pitched in almost seven full days. Here's the kicker; on six-plus days of rest, Santana is 10-2 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.9 strickes per nine innings all in 16 starts of this criteria
It was back on May 6 that the Mets go-to-guy on the mound last made an appearance versus Philly. Santana threw serious stuff, allowing two hits and no runs, his best performance on the season.
But don’t be surprised because the Phillies exited the month of May batting a cold, .259 BA. There’s exception to the Philly rule at the plate however. An improved 5.3 runs per game (148 RBIs versus opponents’ 133) for a 17-11 record during the month proved more important then just batting averages.
Trouble for New York comes in the form of Philadelphia tearing through the standings with a 21-8 road record. In the midst of a 10-game road trip, the Phillies have scored five runs per game en route to a 5-2 routine in the last seven.
The Phillies will field general purpose slinger, J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.48) as he continues to improve his numbers, stamina and stock in the No. 4 spot. At least the Phillies’ bullpen is there to help out Happ, ranked seventh best with a 3.59 ERA. Arms like Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson and Scott Eyre represent the most solid part of the pen. These are three slingers coming together for a 2.36 ERA for 29 holds on the year.
One problem that can't be overlooked is closer Brad Lidge's (7.27 ERA) six blown saves this season, two in back-to-back appearances on June 5 and 6. In May, Lidge was responsible for choking on 13 runs allowed alone. Remember that this is a slinger who had 41 saves last year with not one blown save registered.
Individually, Happ is coming off an outstanding outing in San Diego in which he held down the opponent to four hits and no runs on 112 pitches (reverting back to improved stamina). But let’s not boast too much about the start given the Padres’ absence of hitting as WE know it.
Wagering on totals could be something to look at with several ‘under’ trends gaining popularity. For example, the ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in Philadelphia’s last 16 overall, the ‘under’ is 9-3 in Santana’s last 12 starts and the ‘under’ is 12-3-1 in the Phillies last 16 games following a win (following the Phils taking a 7-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday).
The Mets are 10-3 in Santana’s last 13 home starts.
Sportsbetting.com has placed the home town Mets as $1.77 favorites. A total of eight runs has been set.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
