Did you see Colorado’s current seven-game winning streak coming? How about the Cardinals recent implosion? Or what about Seattle’s 21-6 ‘under’ record in the last 27 (including six straight ‘under’ plays in the last six games)?
Whether you caught one or all of those trends or missed the boat entirely, don’t worry because Thursday is chock full of action to capitalize on. Focusing on the afternoon hours, eight games will challenge our wallets. Are you prepared to take this card to the bank?
Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Having taken three in a row as $2.07, $1.36 and $1.13 favorites (in descending order) against the Pirates (27-32, +23), the Braves (29-29, -501) will shift focus to improving on their 7-4 record in the last 11 home games. Atlanta is packing the second best BA at .296 during the daytime and a middle of the pack, 103 runs scored has actually stimulated a 4-1 ‘over’ record when the total has been placed at eight runs during the daytime. Even when 10-run totals have been set, the ‘over’ is cashing at a 4-2 clip (again, at home during the day).
After hours viewing on Wednesday witnessed ATL dropping Game 3 in this series, 3-2. The biggest news was books listing the Braves' Jair Jurrjens as a hefty, minus-201 favorite, thus cutting into their overall money line profit.
Atlanta is planning to start Javier Vazquez (4-5, 3.54). The Braves are 0-3 in his last three starts, losing backers a total of minus-4.34 units on the money line. But giving up 2.3 runs per game isn’t all that poor. A 2-4 ‘under’ record in his last six starts has been a result.
Pittsburgh is just 9-12 during the day. A 4.23 ERA and .271 BAA followed by the hitting department making contact for a .262 BA while scoring 93 runs helps explain daytime problems in the standings. Lefty, Paul Maholm (4-2, 3.94) is 10-12 lifetime with a 5.01 ERA in 37 starts during day games. But a .298 BAA and a .806 on base percentage allowed are numbers to watch out for (all daytime figures).
The Braves are tagging southpaws for a .276 BA and 91 RBIs is fifth best in the Majors.
Pittsburgh is 9-28 in its last 37 meetings in Atlanta.
As Wednesday came to a close most books had the Braves listed as 'chalky' $1.70 favorites. A low total of eight runs has been set. Atlanta is 12-6 on the 'over' during afternoon play while the Pirates are just over .500 at 11-9 on the 'over'.
Colorado at Milwaukee – 2:05 p.m. EDT
We begin this preview by stating Milwaukee’s (33-26, +738) league leading, 2.84 ERA during day games. Ok, with the obvious number in the open, the Brewers have been less then impressive. A 7-11 record in the last 18 coupled with being listed as the underdog six times in the last nine games has placed a “buyers beware” tag on this franchise. At least starting pitcher, Yovani Gallardo (6-2, 2.84 ERA) could end up making or braking Thursday’s bets. Gallardo is an outstanding 2-0 in four starts during the day. And how can you beat a 0.33 ERA and a.162 BAA during these day time shifts?
The Rockies (27-32, -363) are seven games deep in a winning streak thanks to sweeping St. Louis in a four-game series (now six straight victories versus the Cards in the last six meetings) and taking Wednesday's Game 2, 4-2 in Milwaukee. Colorado will entrust Aaron Cook (4-3, 4.50) for the 28th win of the season. His 2-3 record while surrendering 6.4 runs per game (including runs surrendered by relief pitchers) adds to the volatility in backing the team but it’s not like the Rockies haven’t been faced with adversity before.
The ‘over’ is 9-2-1 in Cook’s last 12 starts and 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings. The Rockies have reign dominance in this matchup, tendering a 9-3 performance in the last 12 mettings. However, the Brewers have countered at home in head-to-head meetings by going 10-5.
Minnesota at Oakland – 3:35 p.m. EDT
A serious problem surrounding the Twins (30-31, -194) is an 8-22 record playing on natural grass. That means that Minnesota’s 21-12 home record and 9-19 away performance are stark contrasts to how this team plays at home versus on the road. Starting slinger Nick Blackburn is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA on the road this season. Even more inspiring is his personal 3-0 record in his last four starts and the Twins’ three wins and one loss during the same stretch. The ‘under’ is also 3-0 in Blackburn’s last three starts and 6-2-1 in the last nine. Not hard to picture when Blackburn is responsible for allowing just 1.9 earned runs per game in the same nine starts.
Beginning with three straight wins as $1.22, $1.25 and $1.56 visiting underdogs against the White Sox, Oakland (26-32, -384) was able to string out four more victories for a total of seven in a row. A loss against Minnesota on Tuesday (10-5) ended that run. Now the Twinkies will be looking to Trevor Cahill (3-5, 4.21) to get them back on track. The problem here is that Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA during day games. Getting 4.5 runs of support per start overall equates to a run difference of plus-1.7 on the season. So although the offense hasn’t been blistering in his starts, Cahill is getting almost a two run cushion to work with.
Take into account that without home field advantage in its favor, Minnesota and its opponents have excelled at hitting the ‘over’, currently standing at 18-8-2 this year. But coming off a road win, the Twins are 5-1 on the ‘under’ in the following road game.
Currently, books have listed the Athletics as light, $1.07 home favorites with a total of 8 1/2.
Extra Innings
-- San Francisco (31-27, +411) looks to stretch out a 6-2 record in the last eight when it encounters Arizona (25-35, -1214). The Giants have opened the books as $1.30 visiting underdogs. A run total of nine has been set in the early hours on the board.
-- Arizona is 7-3 on the ‘over’ during home-day games when the total has been posted at nine runs. The club is averaging a total of 10 ½-runs during day games at home (runs produced combined with runs alloweed). What this says is the pitching staff has logged in a 4.25 ERA during the day this season.
-- Max Scherzer (2-4, 4.10) takes the ball on Thursday. His 2-2 record in the last seven starts is far from effective although the Diamondbacks are 4-2 in his last six starts. And a 1-2 record followed by a 7.46 ERA at home could be partial importance for the fade alert to be signaled.
-- The talk of the town could be the Giants’ 5-2 stranglehold on ‘Zona this season, but Thursday’s starter must be addressed. Jonathan Sanchez (2-5, 5.19) giving up 3.6 runs per game isn’t the strongest of stats and a 1.65 WHIP despite both righties and lefties hitting for a .248 BA could justify the +130 price on San Fran (bet $100 to make $130). But the D-backs are struggling hardcore against southpaws with a .230 BA and a .323 OBP.
-- The ‘under’ is 6-3-1 in the last nine meetings in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are just 3-9 in their last 12 home games. But don’t be so surprised. Arizona has 12-20 overall home record can be partially attributed to owning the worst home cooking ERA at 5.49. Another damaging stat for the fade play include the D-backs going 1-10 when coming off a home win in their next home stand (although Wednesday's loss against Frisco, 6-4 has nullified this trend for today). The 'under' is also 9-3-1 in the last 13 overall head-to-heads.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
